Big Political Changes Forecast for Area : Elections: New districts drawn by the state and term limits have set the stage for a wild year in the county.

As soon as the courts outlined a new playing field, Ventura County’s leading politicians opened a campaign season that could bring the most dramatic changes to the area’s political lineup in more than a decade.

New political districts drawn by the state Supreme Court combined with term limits imposed on state legislators have prompted all but one of the county’s Republican lawmakers to either try for higher office or call it quits.

And their decisions have touched off a stampede of local officeholders and other candidates jockeying to fill available legislative seats in Sacramento.

The early commotion, political consultants say, foreshadows a wild year in local politics.

“It’s going to be a zoo, with all of the animals trying to get out of their cages,” said Mary Rose, a Democratic consultant who works in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties.

No fewer than seven political hopefuls--including one mayor, two city councilmen and a former county supervisor--are seriously considering a bid for the Assembly seat that they expect to be vacated soon by Assemblyman Tom McClintock (R-Thousand Oaks).

Last week’s announced retirement of Sen. Ed Davis (R-Santa Clarita) has unleashed a scramble in Republican circles to anoint his successor. So far, Assemblywoman Cathie Wright (R-Simi Valley) is the only official candidate in the state Senate race. In turn, four candidates have surfaced to compete for Wright’s Assembly seat.

“It’s a once-in-a-lifetime chance for someone to get into state and national politics,” said John Davies, a political consultant based in Santa Barbara.

He said politicians in California may never again face the unique mixture of opportunities and pressures: new political districts drawn by the Supreme Court, seven new congressional seats and voter-approved limits of six years for members of the Assembly and eight for state senators.

“The term limits are making people jump now because they may not have the opportunity in the future,” Davies said. “Some are natural moves, others are being pushed.”

Most of the movement is among Republicans. The county’s two Democratic legislators, Assemblyman Jack O’Connell of Carpinteria and state Sen. Gary K. Hart of Santa Barbara, both flirted with running for Congress before returning to the safety of incumbency in their own districts.

“This is Republican turf,” said Jim Dantona, a government-relations consultant in Simi Valley and a member of the county’s Democratic Central Committee. “It’s natural that you will see the major changes there.”

Ventura County has 21,611 more registered Republican voters than Democrats, giving GOP candidates a 7% advantage countywide.

In drawing the new political boundaries, the Supreme Court has ditched the elongated, contorted districts drawn a decade earlier by Democrats to favor their own party’s politicians. As a result, all the districts in the county are now highly competitive or favor Republicans.

“It’s a myth that we elect lawmakers every two or four years,” said Prof. Jonathan Steepee, chairman of the political science department at California Lutheran University in Thousand Oaks. “In reality we elect them once every 10 years when we gerrymander the districts.”

The political shake-up, he said, will also be driven by Proposition 140’s term limits that threaten lifelong careers in Sacramento. “So now, a lot of legislators in Sacramento are looking toward Congress, where there are no term limits,” he said. “Once they get locked in, they could look at another full career.”

Assemblyman McClintock has not officially announced his plans, but he has said repeatedly that he is interested in Congress. He has been lining up endorsements of prominent Republicans for his candidacy in the 24th Congressional District, which connects his hometown of Thousand Oaks to the westernmost portions of Los Angeles County.

McClintock, a conservative, is the best known of the Republicans competing in the district. Declared GOP candidates include real estate developer Sang Korman of Calabasas, international trade consultant Jim Salomon of Beverly Hills and mortuary owner Jon Lorenzen of Reseda.

In November, the Republican winner will probably face Rep. Anthony Beilenson (D-Los Angeles), a liberal congressman whose district was carved up by the high court. Beilenson is the only declared Democrat so far.

Voter registration is evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, and the race is considered a tossup. Political consultants anticipate a Republican brawl in the June primary and then a tough fall campaign between candidates with sharply different views.

Hart said he believes McClintock might pull out at the last minute, as he did in a 1986 campaign that allowed Rep. Elton Gallegly (R-Simi Valley) to win a seat in Congress.

“I think he is chicken,” Hart said. “He was chicken six years ago. He had his chance then and he blinked. I think he will blink again.”

But Republican insiders said McClintock has conducted a poll, sought endorsements and has done everything a candidate should short of an official declaration. They expect an announcement as early as this week.

McClintock’s anticipated departure has prompted at least six Republicans to seriously consider running in the 37th Assembly District, which encompasses Thousand Oaks, Moorpark, Camarillo, Oxnard and Port Hueneme.

“His leaving the Legislature is going to leave the state with a big void of someone championing lower taxes,” said Steve Rubenstein, president of the Conejo Valley Chamber of Commerce.

Rubenstein said he might jump into the race to carry the anti-tax mantle for McClintock, his “very, very good friend.”

Former County Supervisor Madge Schaefer and Oxnard Mayor Nao Takasugi are the most prominent Republicans thinking about the Assembly race. But Takasugi said he is torn between running for the Assembly, challenging Supervisor John Flynn and running for reelection as mayor.

Oxnard Councilman Mike Plisky and Moorpark Councilman Scott Montgomery have also expressed interest in the race, as has Alan Guggenheim, an international finance and marketing consultant in Newbury Park.

The district’s voter registration heavily favors a Republican candidate.

Ginny Connell, the former county Democratic Party chairwoman who ran against McClintock in 1990, has decided against her candidacy this year. Roz McGrath, a schoolteacher and farm manager in Camarillo, is the only Democrat who has floated her name for consideration so far.

In the 19th state Senate District, Wright has two possible Republican challengers for the seat that Sen. Davis held for more than a decade.

Charles H. Jelloian of Northridge said last week that he is thinking seriously about running in the predominantly Republican district that stretches from Oxnard to Northridge.

Jelloian, a former aide to state Sen. Newt Russell (R-Glendale), recently decided to leave his job as director of the foundation that built the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. Some longtime associates of the former President have been advising him.

Wright said because she is an incumbent legislator she did not believe she would be challenged by Jelloian. “I don’t think Chuck will jump into the race. I talked to him last week and he said he did not want to run in a district with an incumbent,” Wright said.

“She’s not an incumbent senator ,” Jelloian said. “She is an assemblywoman. No one can lay claim to that Senate seat. And right now, there is a very strong anti-incumbency feeling out there.”

Bob Larkin, a Simi Valley insurance agent, also said he might join the race. Larkin is president of the Ventura County Lincoln Club, which is sponsored by some of the wealthiest Republicans in the county.

Wright’s decision to run for the state Senate avoided a primary battle with first-term Assemblywoman Paula Boland (R-Northridge), a friend and ally. Boland has staked claim to the 38th Assembly District as the incumbent.

Roger Campbell, a Republican councilman in Fillmore, is thinking about running. “I don’t know who she (Boland) is,” Campbell said. “We need somebody who has a feeling for the common man,” he said.

Although Republicans hold a 10% edge over Democrats in voter registration in the 38th Assembly District, Democrats James Blatt, a Northridge lawyer, and Howard Cohen, a citizen activist in North Hills, plan to compete as well.

O’Connell announced last week that he would seek reelection in the 35th Assembly District, which connects Ventura, Santa Paula and Ojai to a large portion of Santa Barbara County.

Republican Lanny Ebenstein, a political science lecturer at Antioch University of Santa Barbara, plans to take on O’Connell in November. Although the district is highly competitive, political consultants say, Ebenstein will have an uphill battle against O’Connell, a tireless campaigner.

O’Connell considered jumping into the 23rd Congressional District race against Gallegly, but decided he preferred to remain in Sacramento.

Gallegly inherited the district, which covers most of the county, when Rep. Robert J. Lagomarsino (R-Ventura) decided to move to political turf north of the county to preserve party unity. The two incumbents were tossed into the same district now making up the new political map.

Anita Perez Ferguson, a Santa Barbara educator, has moved to Ventura so she can challenge Gallegly.

At this point, she is the only Democrat in the race and anticipates that the party will rally around her. “They’ve got a great candidate,” she said.

In addition, the Green Party, which won ballot status this year, may offer Mindy Lorenz as a candidate. Lorenz, a Cal State Northridge art history professor who lives in Ventura, ran as a write-in candidate in 1990. This time her name would appear on the ballot.

Hart, who represents the 18th Senate District, does not face reelection until 1994.

* STATEWIDE REDISTRICTING: A3

1992 Legislativ and Congressional Races

NEW DISTRICTS: These are the new Assembly, state and congressional boundaries adopted by the California Supreme Court. The districts, redrawn every 10 years, for the political map for the 1990s.

NEW FACTS: Although official campaign filing does not open until Feb. 10, potential candidates have begun to explore political opportunities. Below are announced candidates and others considering a race: 35th Assembly District Ventura County Pop. 156,356 / 42% L.A. County Pop. 213,055 / 58% Jack O’Connell Democrat, Carpinteria Assemblyman Lanny Ebenstein Republican, Santa Barbara Political science lecturer

Assembly District 35 extends west to include most of Santa Barbara County.

Assembly Districts

Dist. No. Dem. Rep. Assem. 35 44% 42% Assem. 37 41% 47% Assem. 38 40% 50%

37th Assembly District Ventura County Pop. 369,829 / 100% Madge Schaefer Republican, Thousand Oaks Former County supervisor Nao Takasugi Republican, Oxnard Mayor Steve Rubenstein Republican, Thousand Oaks Conejo Valley Chamber president Mike Plisky Republican, Oxnard City councilman Scott Montgomery Republican, Moorpark City councilman Roz McGrath Democrat, Camarillo Schoolteacher, farm manager Alan Guggenheim Republican, Thousand Oaks International finance consultant 38th Assembly District Ventura County Pop. 142,831 / 38% L.A. County Pop. 229,978 / 62% Paula Boland Republican, Granada Hills Assemblywoman Roger Campbell Republican, Fillmore City councilman James Blatt Democrat, Northridge Attorney Howard Cohen Democrat, North Hills Citizen activist 19th State Senate District Ventura County Pop. 512,660 / 69% L.A. County Pop. 229,978 / 31% Cathie Wright Republican, Simi Valley Assemblywoman Charles H. Jelloian Republican, Northridge Ronald Reagan assistant

Senate District 18 also includes all of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties.

Senate Districts

Dist. No. Dem. Rep. Sen. 18 42% 44% Sen. 19 40% 49%

23rd Congressional District Ventura County Pop. 555,604 / 97% Santa Barbara County Pop. 13,879 / 3% Anita Perez Ferguson Democrat, Ventura Educational consultant Elton Gallegly Republican, Simi Valley Congressman 24th Congressional District Ventura County Pop. 111,412 / 19% Los Angeles County Pop. 461,151 / 81% Tom McClintock Republican, Thousand Oaks Assemblyman Sang Korman Republican, Calabasas Real Estate developer Jim Salomon Republican, Beverly Hills International trade consultant Anthony Beilenson Democrat, Los Angeles Congressman

Dist. No. Dem. Rep. Cong. 23 43% 45% Cong. 24 45% 45%