Bush, Tsongas Win in N.H.; Tight Vote a Blow to President : Republicans: The incumbent's victory over Buchanan by a preliminary count of 58%-40% is far closer than expected. Voters displayed deep resentment over the ravaged economy.

By CATHLEEN DECKER

Feb. 19, 1992 12 AM PT

TIMES POLITICAL WRITER

MANCHESTER, N.H. —

Republicans delivered a startling rebuke to President Bush on Tuesday night at the close of a tempestuous primary campaign that was cast as a referendum on the Bush presidency.

Although he won the first-in-the-nation primary, 58% to 40%, over conservative challenger Patrick J. Buchanan, Bush’s margin was far smaller than either campaign imagined. The percentages did not include write-ins for other candidates, which had yet to be tabulated.

Here, in the state where Bush salvaged his political career in 1988, the voters clearly displayed deep resentment over their ravaged economy.

“The election was far closer than many had predicted,” a chastened Bush acknowledged in a statement issued by the White House. “I think the opponents on both sides reaped the harvest of discontent with the pace of New Hampshire’s economy. I understand the message of dissatisfaction.”

Bush vowed to take his case to voters from now until November and said he was confident that he would defeat Buchanan in the upcoming Southern primaries.

“Now--on to the South,” the President said.

A euphoric Buchanan declared victory, in effect, as he spoke over the cheers of hundreds of joyous supporters in Manchester.

“Today, from dawn to dusk, the Buchanan brigades met King George’s army all along the Concord-Manchester-Nashua line,” the challenger hooted, “and I am here to report they are retreating back into Massachusetts.”

Surrounded by his family, Buchanan returned to the theme that has marked his campaign--a desire to give voice to Republicans who felt more and more betrayed as the economy slumped into recession.

“This campaign, I am proud to say, has given voice to the voiceless, from the unemployment offices in Manchester and Concord, from people who have lost homes in Londonderry and Laconia, from people who are losing a way of life all the way from Nashua to the North Country.

“They did not forget us,” he said. “And we will never forget them.”

Although he is technically the victor, Bush emerges from the primary bruised and embarrassed, his campaign acknowledging deficiencies made glaring by the vote.

By Tuesday afternoon, when exit polls began predicting a close race, the White House was reeling. Aides were hastily drawing up a travel schedule that would put the President front-and-center before voters in the South, where the March 3 primary in Georgia marks the start of that regional phase of the race.

Buchanan, a former television commentator whose campaign until 10 weeks ago existed only in his mind, had locked in about one-third of the vote before election day, according to a host of polls, but he ran stronger than even his own pollster had predicted.

All day long, however, Buchanan had campaigned with the confidence of a front-runner.

As he campaigned on his own behalf outside a polling station early Tuesday, Buchanan advised voters to think about what they have gone through the last few years and to ask themselves “if maybe America doesn’t need new leadership and a new direction for our economy and for the country and for the future.”

Buchanan campaign operatives were downright gleeful as election night progressed, whereas the President’s aides counseled supporters to prepare for the long haul ahead.

Paul Erickson, the challenger’s political director, said: “If they are to compete at all in the primary season, they must realize they must campaign. We saw virtually no organization here in New Hampshire--I don’t know whether that was because of their own overconfidence or whether or not it was their belief . . . that New Hampshire doesn’t matter to them.”

Bush’s senior campaign strategist, Charles Black, delivered a backhanded compliment to the upstart challenger.

“We always knew this would be a very good state for Pat Buchanan and it may well be he hit his high-water mark tonight,” Black said.

“A win is a win. Our goal is to finish first in all the primaries and caucuses . . . . If we win all the primaries and caucuses we’ll get the nomination by default.”

Buchanan aides acknowledge that New Hampshire is the state best suited to the challenger’s protest message and that rougher times may lie ahead. Now, they are dependent on a broad grass-roots effort in the South, where the multi-state nature of campaigning will complicate his effort.

Bush aides have long considered the South more friendly territory because its economy is in comparatively better shape than New Hampshire’s and its Republican voters tend to more closely match Bush’s ideological profile.

In his post-election remarks, Buchanan indicated that he is counting on an uprising in middle America to power his campaign through future primaries. As he had during his campaign, Buchanan cast his struggle in populist, revolutionary tones.

“Let the message go forth from here, to the Americans out there, young, middle-aged and old, moderate, conservative, whatever, we need your heart and we need your hands,” he said. “We have done it here, middle America. Now give us your support and we will do it everywhere.”

Although he was secluded in the White House as returns came in, Bush was publicly optimistic earlier in the day about his chances with this volatile electorate.

“I feel very confident; I had a good campaign,” the 67-year-old President declared to reporters.

Buchanan had kept the incumbent on the defensive since his entry into the race Dec. 10, forcefully portraying Bush as a man who had courted New Hampshire in 1988 and then spurned it and the rest of America to take on the foreign-policy prerogatives of the presidency.

The 53-year-old challenger urged voters to “send a message” to the President with a thumbs-down vote.

Bush became the prime focus of voter anger in a state where unemployment is running at nearly 8% and bankruptcies and home foreclosures are epidemic.

A Los Angeles Times exit poll of New Hampshire voters indicated that they were strongly inclined to punish Bush for the downward trend of the state’s economy.

The President had emphasized in recent days his leadership of the country during the Persian Gulf War, but the economy cast a shadow over that message. In effect, the polling showed, that presumed advantage was canceled by anger over Bush’s flip-flop on the issue of taxes.

The poll also illustrated a wide gender gap in support for the two Republicans. Buchanan ran even with Bush among men, but women were far more supportive of the President than his challenger.

Tuesday’s returns were all the more painful for Bush given New Hampshire’s prominent role in his 1988 electoral success. Then, the state had responded affirmatively when Bush pleaded for victory as his campaign tried to shake off a third-place finish in the Iowa caucuses.

For his part, Buchanan, under the rubric “America first,” hammered at the foreign-policy priorities of the Bush Administration and contended that as President he would strip foreign-aid funding, get tough with trading partners and do battle with Congress to lower taxes.

Buchanan spent little of his time--until pressed--delineating his own programs, but voters seemed to care more about his potential as a vehicle for embarrassing Bush than for his own possibilities as President.

Over the weekend, he began another tough commercial accusing Bush of reneging on his State of the Union pledge to deliver a $500-per-child income tax deduction.

Although Buchanan was ever-present, the only sighting of Bush throughout most of the campaign was a life-size cardboard cutout of the waving President that filled the window of his Manchester headquarters.

Bush spent only four days here this year, seemingly forgetting the lesson he learned in 1988, when he junked his country-club campaign and sought voters with effusive abandon. Even his own operatives criticized his absence this time around.

Over the weekend, as Bush campaigned in southern New Hampshire, his tentative standing among New Hampshirites was confirmed--his events were woefully ill-attended and even those who showed up to see the President indicated that they were not sure they would vote for him.

It was then that Bush operatives shifted their take on the election. No longer did they contend that Bush would sweep Buchanan here; instead, they argued that New Hampshire was not an appropriate referendum on the President because of its economic straits.

U.S. Sen. Warren B. Rudman (R-N.H.), one of Bush’s strongest supporters, on Saturday was placed in the awkward position of contending that his own state’s primary would not count. The President, he said, would “take a hit and move on” to the Southern primaries, which had guaranteed his nomination four years ago.

Buchanan said his next target is the March 3 primary in Georgia. He is expected to downplay the March 7 primary in South Carolina, where Bush’s organization is strong, and will target only the most promising of the March 10 Super Tuesday states.