Chinese Trade Bloc Predicted by Conferees : Commerce: The idea is to unite Hong Kong with two all-but enemies-- : communist China and capitalist Taiwan--into a “Greater China” trade community.

At an obscure hotel in Hong Kong late last month, a curious gathering took place. More than 100 academics, politicians and business executives from China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and the United States met for three days to discuss establishing a trade bloc for Chinese communities.

At first look, the conference on the “Coordination of Chinese Economic Systems” appeared to be one of the wackier conventions held in convention-mad Hong Kong. But odder still is that many academics, politicians and businessmen believe that such a bloc is inevitable.

“This will happen one day. It could be in 10 years; it could be in 50,” said Ge Weimin, a participant and an economist from the National Economic Research Institute in Shanghai.

“It really is unavoidable,” said William Liu, a professor of sociology at the University of Illinois who helped organize the symposium. “It’s in everybody’s interest.”

The idea would be to unite freewheeling Hong Kong with two all-but enemies--communist China and capitalist Taiwan--into a “Greater China” trade community without tariffs and with a free flow of technology, investment and staff. Possibilities would be left open for Singapore, whose 2.7 million people are 76% Chinese, to join.

Chinese communities overseas--from London to New York to Vancouver to San Francisco--could also become involved, supplying brainpower and capital for “Greater China.”

A major impediment is that China and Taiwan have been technically at war since 1949, when communist forces chased Gen. Chiang Kai-shek’s troops from the Mainland.

Taiwan still bars any direct contact or trade with its arch-enemy because both governments claim to rule all of China. Beijing has threatened to invade Taiwan if it abandons the idea that there is “one China.”

But many participants say an economic bloc is the logical first step in bringing the enemies together. Indeed, most agree that any talk of political unity between China and Taiwan should be delayed at least until after 1997, when China resumes control of Hong Kong.

“Any arrangements will be much looser than what’s being formed in Europe,” said Li Boxi, a Chinese government emissary at the conference. “We’re not yet at that stage.”

During the conference, Li proposed that China allocate four Chinese provinces--Guangdong, Fujian, Guangxi and Hainan--to form an initial community with Hong Kong and Taiwan. Taiwanese legislators who participated in the talks said they appreciated the offer but did not believe that the time is right.

“Such a conference would not have been possible 10 years ago,” said Yu Mu-ming of the ruling Nationalist Party. “But the Chinese should give us equal status as we represent an economic might.”

Cooperation between the three entities is already substantial.

Three-way trade hit $68.04 billion during the first 10 months of last year--up at least 20% from 1990--and three-way investment stands at $36.4 billion, statistics from the Hong Kong Trade Development Council show.

Hong Kong is China’s biggest trading partner and since 1979 has accounted for 63% of the $37.4 billion invested there.

Dealing with China through Hong Kong, Taiwan has become China’s fourth-largest trading partner and, with investments of $3 billion, is the fastest-growing investor in China.

China is the biggest investor in Hong Kong with $10 billion in the British colony. In a turnaround from traditional investment patterns, China, generally considered a low-tech country, recently unveiled plans to build a multimillion-dollar high-technology industrial park in Hong Kong.

Another impetus to “Greater China,” academics say, are worries in China that trade blocs in the West--the European Community and the impending creation of a free trade zone among the United States, Canada and Mexico--could shut China out of world markets.

“China relies a lot on exports so it is natural that we should be concerned,” said Li, the director of the Development Predictions Department for China’s Cabinet, the State Council.

A nationalist urge is another.

“You Westerners are forming your blocs so the Chinese race will unite to form its own,” said Ge from Shanghai. “It is only natural for us Chinese to compete with you.”