ECONOMY WATCH : U.S. Finds Good News Is Hard to Come By . . . : Trends: Sales of existing homes fall 1.5%. And claims for unemployment benefits rise again.

By JUBE SHIVER Jr

Feb. 28, 1992 12 AM PT

TIMES STAFF WRITER

Despite optimistic talk by a Bush Administration official in Washington that a recovery is under way, two reports issued Thursday indicated that the economy continues to struggle, with widespread layoffs and a sluggish housing market.

Sales of existing homes fell 1.5% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.22 million, the National Assn. of Realtors reported. It was the first decline in four months. In California, single-family home sales rose for the third consecutive month, but by just 0.9%, according to the California Assn. of Realtors.

Meanwhile, in another report, the Labor Department reported two consecutive weeks of rising claims for unemployment benefits.

Despite the unimpressive figures, Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady painted an upbeat picture of the economy in a speech before the National Assn. of Business Economists in Washington.

“I see robins on the lawn in the economy now,” Brady was quoted as telling the economists. Brady cited improvements in American exports and noted that interest rates have fallen to the lowest levels in more than a decade.

Although last month’s near record low mortgage rates helped boost sales of existing homes in California and the Midwest, most Americans delayed their home purchases during January, unsuccessfully gambling that rates would head even lower.

Experts also say prospective buyers may have postponed decisions on news of President Bush’s budget proposal to stimulate the economy in part by offering first-time home buyers a $5,000 tax credit if they purchase a home between Feb. 1 and the end of the year.

On Thursday, the House of Representatives rejected the President’s plan and approved a rival tax plan that does not include a first-time home buyer tax credit. The House measure now goes to the Senate, where a similar version is being prepared. But many experts feel that if mortgage rates remain below 9% home sales will improve this spring no matter what the outcome of the budget package.

“The recent uptick in mortgage interest rates is prompting home buyers who previously have been waiting on the sidelines to enter the housing market,” said Dorcas T. Helfant, president of the national realtors group. “We are optimistic that spring sales will be good if rates remain under 9%,” she added, citing a national survey in February of more than 700,000 agents that showed a substantial increase in contracts signed for closing later this year.

On the job front, however, experts are a lot less optimistic.

The Labor Department said Thursday that the number of people making first-time visits to unemployment offices climbed to 459,000 for the week ending Feb. 15, up 7,000 from the previous week. It marked the second straight week that claims have risen and was a disappointment to economists who had been expecting a small decline.

“The labor-market problems are a lot more serious than the housing sector,” said Daryl Delano, a senior economist at Cahners Economics in Newton, Mass. “I think the problems in the job market will be with us for the next several months.”

Economists said the February increase in claims shows that widespread layoffs in many industries--capped by an announcement Monday that General Motors Corp. plans to shut 11 plants and lay off 16,300 people--are still having an adverse impact. And many experts who forecast last summer that the nation’s economy would be healthy by now have turned pessimistic. They predict the unemployment rate, now at 7.1%, could hit 7.5% later in the year before things finally turn around.

“We did expect more of an improvement by this time of year,” conceded Mark Lasky, a senior economist at DRI-McGraw Hill in Lexington, Mass. “I guess it’s going to take more time than we thought for things to turn around.”

California and the nation’s Economy

The states’s unemployment rate remains high. . .

California:

Unemployment rates, seasonally adjusted

Jan. 1992: 7.1%

United States:

Unemployment rates, seasonally adjusted

Jan. 1992: 8.0%

. . .though there is a glimmer of hope in housing.

California

Existing home sales, seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Jan. 1992: 409,320