Entering a Leno Market

Don’t bother trying to predict the outcome of this year’s presidential race before making an investment decision. There already is ample evidence of a bear market ahead, at least according to maverick stock market pundit Robert Prechter. In his “Elliott Wave Theorist” newsletter, the guru of Gainesville, Ga., notes the following:

* A major top in the market is clear because Johnny Carson has left “The Tonight Show” and “The Cosby Show” has ended its run.

* The Los Angeles riots, a best-picture Oscar for the horror film “Silence of the Lambs” and the “Final Exit” suicide manual hitting the bestseller list are evidence that “the old uptrending forces are abdicating and the new downtrend is gaining the upper hand.”

* The tens of millions of dollars that record companies have shelled out to sign such artists as Michael Jackson, Janet Jackson, Aerosmith and the Rolling Stones “suggest a top in valuation for this type of entertainment and in the fortunes of the companies that buy them.”

Host With the Most

Since March, Louis Rukeyser has not only appeared weekly as host of public television’s “Wall Street Week” but monthly as host of his own newsletter, “Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street.”

One fallout has been to irk public television officials. A Washington Post story last week reported that they are upset because they won’t share Rukeyser’s profits and because he promotes his newsletter by comparing it to the show.

In any event, we were impressed by what we learned about Rukeyser from a 14-page promotional magazine he uses to lure subscribers. Among the nuggets:

* He grosses at least $1 million in speaking fees a year. (He charges $25,000 per speech and makes 40 or so.)

* His “flair for fashion” puts him on best-dressed lists each year.

* As a young foreign correspondent, Rukeyser “became the only person in history to eat at every three-star restaurant in France before age 30.”

* Mutual fund legend Peter Lynch endorses the newsletter. (In case anyone forgot who Lynch is, his endorsement is on Fidelity Magellan stationery, even though he retired in 1990 as the fund’s manager.)

. . . More Rukeyser

The magazine also promotes the “fascinating accuracy” of predictions that some of Rukeyser’s guests have made on “Wall Street Week,” including inflation in the 1970s, the energy crisis and the 1987 market crash.

But not everyone is wowed by the guests’ predictions. Florida newsletter writer Norman Fosback has irked Rukeyser in the past for publishing reports showing that for an investor the odds of making money from stocks recommended by Rukeyser’s guests are “no better than a coin flip.” Fosback says he’s planning to update his study this year.

Another academic study showed that stocks bought in late 1976 and early 1977 dropped an average of 7.5% within two months of the date they were recommended on Wall Street Week. Still another showed that stocks recommended by guests in 1983 and 1984 had under-performed the market by 4% one year after they were mentioned.

Briefly . . .

The Overpriced Stock Service newsletter in Northern California says the “Ross for Boss” presidential movement has brought to the stock market “a level of uncertainty not seen in about 80 years” . . . A Dog’s Life: North Hollywood’s Kamer Enterprises, which does business as the Kamer Canine College, has filed for protection from creditors under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code . . . Assuming that the crow’s flight isn’t delayed: A San Luis Obispo County home listed for nearly $1.2 million is advertised as “1 Hr. from LAX As the Crow Flies.”