NEWS ANALYSIS : Voters More Afraid of Taxes Than of Crime

It is a simple proposition: For $99 a year, the average homeowner can feel safer in Los Angeles.

That is the message underlying Mayor Tom Bradley’s call for November ballot measures to pay for 1,000 additional police officers and to modernize the city’s emergency communications system.

But despite the emotional appeal of Bradley’s proposals in post-riot Los Angeles, they face several obstacles, including the city’s historic reluctance to approve such measures.

Similar initiatives to increase the size of the Los Angeles Police Department failed in 1981 and 1985. Ballot measures to upgrade the communications system also failed in 1990 and 1991.

Although the City Council is expected to go along with Bradley’s request today and commission drafting of the measures, some contend the proposals will ultimately fail because voters fear taxes more than crime during the continuing recession.

“While we are sympathetic to the need for more police officers, the timing is really crummy,” said Kris Vosburgh, executive director of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Assn. “The local economy is in shambles, we’ve got unemployment hovering around 10% and people feel fortunate just to hang on to their jobs and homes.”

Others doubted that the measures could muster the necessary two-thirds vote to pass.

“I don’t know of any similar measures passed in the state by a two-thirds vote,” said Arnold Steinberg, a Republican political consultant. “A lot will depend on how they are worded on the ballot.”

But Bradley, Police Chief Willie L. Williams and a host of City Council members believe the time is right to try again, as residents clamor for increased protection amid a rise in major crime and fresh memories of widespread civil unrest.

“There is no money available in the city treasury and so we come to the last resort--the people of the city,” Bradley said at a City Hall news conference held Tuesday to unveil the proposals. “We’ve already cut (the city budget) to the bone and if we have to cut again we’ll be amputating.”

Eric Rose, a City Hall lobbyist and former political consultant to former Police Chief Daryl F. Gates, said the measures may be a hard--but not impossible--sell at the ballot box.

“They need to write airtight ballot measures that will persuade voters that the money is going for officers and not a variety of services,” Rose said. “The measures have a built-in advantage, however--they are coming to voters while Chief Williams is still on his honeymoon with the city.”

For placement on the November ballot, the measures must be approved by the City Council by July 31.

The bond measure would raise at least $235 million to finance a complete overhaul of the city’s emergency communications system, including the 911 emergency system, officials said. It would cost residents about $26 a year.

Additional police officers would be funded through a separate property tax. The tax, which would be based on property size, would raise $100 million a year to hire 1,000 officers and 200 civilian police employees and pay their pension and retirement benefits. The initiative would cost the owner of a 1,500-square-foot home about $73 a year. Officials say the tax will be phased out when other revenue sources are found.

The tax would be higher for larger homes, apartment buildings, commercial structures and high-rise office buildings, according to a report prepared by the city administrative officer.

For example, the annual tax for a 4,300-square-foot multiunit apartment building would be $210, while the cost for a 500,000-square-foot high-rise would be $24,457.

Councilman Marvin Braude, who helped design the proposals, said he believes apartment building owners will pass the additional charges on to renters.

If the tax is approved by voters in November, Williams said the 1,000 officers would be hired within a year, and on the streets six months after that.

“Those 1,000 officers will be put in uniforms,” he said, “and you will see them on foot beats and in patrol cars.”

Los Angeles currently has 2.2 police officers for each 1,000 residents--one of the lowest officer-to-resident ratios of any major American city. Williams said statistics showed a 6.1% increase in major crimes during the first three months of 1992, contrasted with the same period a year ago.

Twelve members of the 15-member City Council said Tuesday that they would vote to place the measures on the ballot.

But five of them--Joel Wachs, Nate Holden, Hal Bernson, Ruth Galanter and Zev Yaroslavsky--said they may not actively support the measures at the polls.

Only Ernani Bernardi and Joan Milke Flores said they would vote against placing the measures on the ballot. They contend that the city is not putting enough of its 7,900 police officers on the street as it is.

Council President John Ferraro is recuperating from heart surgery and is not expected to take part in any of the deliberations.

Meanwhile Tuesday, the measures drew mixed responses from homeowner organizations across the city.

Richard Close, an attorney and president of the 1,350-member Sherman Oaks Homeowners Assn., said although his group has fought against similar police taxes, including the plan to boost the force to 8,500 officers in 1981, “these are extraordinary times, and there is a need to do something to regain control of city streets.”

“The Los Angeles riots showed that the LAPD was not able to protect the residents of Sherman Oaks or South Los Angeles,” Close said. “The amount of money city officials are asking for is small compared to the lack of security people feel.”

But Alan Kisbaugh, president of The Federation of Hillside and Canyon Assns. Inc., expressed concerns about possible political motives behind the proposals. “They are flying the idea while saying details will come later, which is classic City Hall,” Kisbaugh said.