COMMENTARY ON THE ELECTIONS : The Seven Reasons Bush Will Win Big in Orange County : While some predict a tight race locally, the President’s margin of victory here may be what wins him the election.

In order to carry California in November, George Bush must roll up a 200,000-vote edge in Orange County on Election Day. He will do so, for seven very obvious reasons:

1. THE STATURE GAP: Voters are used to Bush, used to seeing him as President, used to Bush handling the crucial issues: Bush with Yeltsin; Bush with Major; Bush signing the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Bill Clinton, on the other hand, is a failed governor of a small Southern state. Orange County is itself more complicated than Arkansas, and local voters are sophisticated and demanding. From Little Rock to Pennsylvania Avenue? I don’t think so. Neither will Orange County.

2. AN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY: We live in a region increasingly export-oriented. Our local economy depends upon market opportunities beyond our shores. The Democrats refuse to shed their protectionist impulse. A tariff war would cripple the county’s future. Bill Clinton’s an advertisement for the 1990s version of Hawley-Smoot. And that would kill the county’s job base. Another negative in Clinton’s column.

3. THE NEWEST CITIZENS: Not only is Orange County’s economic future an internationalist one, its demographics now include a large and active cross-section of the world. Latino-Americans and Asian-Americans, emigres from the Middle East and Eastern Europe--all of these groups are crucial to electoral success in Orange County. These are opportunity-driven voters, and that translates into Bush votes.

Clinton’s still talking past them, to the remnants of a New Deal coalition that never existed here. He won’t change--indeed he can’t--because Arkansas has never required him to deal with such a spectrum of ethnicities. Another strike against the liberal from Little Rock that will grow larger as we approach November.

4. TAXES: We are allergic to them. Clinton has raised taxes in Arkansas on more than 100 different occasions. Bush raised them once. Orange County was pretty angry over the latter. It will not tolerate the former.

5. AL GORE’S AMERICA: If you like the Air Quality Management District, you’ll love Al Gore. The senator is Big Green times two--mistaking the side of the “environmental” bureaucracy with the success of environmental protection. Read his book, “Earth in the Balance.” Small-property owners and small businesses don’t figure in Al Gore’s world--only government agencies do.

To a county reeling under the disconnected and chaotic commands of Eastern Europe-styled ministries, the Gore promise of greater and greater government controls isn’t a promise at all, it’s a threat.

6. THE UNDERCARD: Clinton got lucky when the school choice initiative failed to make the November ballot. Orange County is a hotbed for choice sentiment. But the welfare reform initiative will pull voters out and, even more important, Bruce Herschensohn and Jo Ellen Allen will mobilize local folks in a huge way.

Herschensohn is steadily gaining on Barbara Boxer, and the congresswoman’s 143 bounced checks and her support of last year’s 40% pay hike for House members place her at the intersection of the gridlocked Congress. She’s the embodiment of four decades of Democratic misrule in the House, a perk-lover of the first degree.

Herschensohn, on the other hand, excites Orange County rank and file like no one else save Reagan. He’s the genuine article--authentic, articulate, compassionate and thoughtful. Like Kemp, he’s a “bleeding heart conservative”; like Reagan, he communicates his sincere conviction at the same time that he conveys an essentially optimistic world view. Herschensohn will prompt the Orange County troops to work hard and long. Bush will benefit.

And where Clinton might have found a little help, in the 69th Assembly District, (Democratic) incumbent Tom Umberg’s close ties to Speaker Willie Brown and to lobbyist funding have tarnished his appeal. Umberg’s liberal record is already an issue for Jo Ellen Allen’s grass-roots campaign, and Orange County’s only Democrat is sinking in the state budget snafu swamp--a wholly irrelevant figure in the debate except as a loyal vote for Speaker Brown’s obstructionist policies. For Democrats, Umberg’s a good reason to stay home. For Republicans, he’s a great reason to turn out. Jo Ellen Allen benefits. So does Bush.

7. THE LOCAL PARTIES: There is no real Democratic party in Orange County--just the same dozen folks who have been here forever. They are dedicated. They try. They fail.

The GOP, on the other hand, remains superbly organized under Chairman Tom Fuentes, and the entire party is united and working in unison toward its standard Election-Day drill. The media routinely ignores the powerful punch the local party gives national candidates. In 1992, it’ll be a crucial margin of comfort on election night.

Now, journalists love the easy stories. A one-day lead such as GOP defections to Clinton is easy to punch in, and polls help reduce the hard work of getting the details down as well.

So many crucial observers have convinced themselves it’s a tight race here in Orange County. But the fundamentals of Orange County electoral dynamics haven’t changed, and those fundamentals still point to a huge Bush margin arriving late on election eve--maybe just in time to save California, and possibly the Presidency, for George Bush.