PLATFORM : Earthquake Alert

I applaud all the great strides in seismology. I’m one of the first people to tune in to my local radio station after a quake to find out all the pertinent stuff--where was the epicenter and what the magnitude was. I wait with bated breath for those all-too-familiar aftershocks. I salute those scientists who have made earthquakes so interesting and enlightening. But to predict when the shaking starts, forget it.

No, I’m not an ostrich that buries its head. I’m a firm believer that knowledge is paramount over ignorance. But to publicly state that a quake will happen at so-and-so time, on so-and-so day--come on.

Experts predicted a 37% chance of a shaker this week at Parkfield (in Monterey County). The media gathered, people held their breath, and nothing happened. When the experts predict the next one, the media will gather, people will hold their breath, and nothing will happen. Pretty soon, after so many false predictions, the public will giggle. And then, you can be sure, is when the Big One will hit.