Better O.C. Sales Predicted Despite Mixed Holiday Results : Retail: County merchants should see 2.7% increase in season’s shopping, better than other Southland counties, economist says.

Despite mixed reports of Thanksgiving weekend results, Orange County retailers can expect a mildly better season for holiday shopping this year than last, a Los Angeles economist said Monday.

Merchants offering the kinds of items typically purchased by gift givers--furniture, clothing and general merchandise--are expected to see an increase of 2.7% in sales this season, said Ira Kalish, an economist with the retail consulting division of accounting firm Price Waterhouse.

Though the increase he projects is meager, Kalish said, he thinks that Orange County will post the best sales increase of any region of Southern California. Sales in Los Angeles County will likely decline 2.8% over last year, and the Inland Empire will post only a 0.6% increase.

“It’s been doing better than these other (counties) for the last two years or so,” Kalish said. “Orange County is less dependent on defense industries. It has a more diversified economic base. It also has become an attractive alternative to companies that are expanding and that have a negative attitude about Los Angeles County.”

Even before it was rocked by riots in April, Los Angeles County had seen much of its aerospace and manufacturing base teeter during the recession. The government has been buying less defense-related equipment, and manufacturers have been considering moves to other counties or states where costs might be lower.

Orange County, however, cannot necessarily take heart at the predictions, Kalish said. The increase he projects is so meager, he noted, that it is negligible when inflation is taken into account.

And it is less than half of the 5.7% increase registered in Orange County during the previous holiday season, according to U.S. Commerce Department figures.

Los Angeles County’s holiday sales were off 8.3% in 1991, compared to 1990, and Southern California’s were down 3.8%.

Kalish is predicting a narrower range between Orange and Los Angeles counties this year because, “although we are not in recovery, the situation has improved relatively. The situation we’re seeing is much less severe than what we’ve seen for a long time.”

That may not be much consolation to some individual retailers, though. The Wet Seal women’s apparel chain in Irvine, for example, has told its investors that this season may not be all that jolly. On Monday, the company said its Thanksgiving weekend sales were not as strong as those for the same period last year in either Orange County or other areas.

“The four days were not that great compared to last year,” said Alan Weinstein, Wet Seal’s chief financial officer. He would not give specific figures, saying only that “we’re disappointed.” Even the company’s Costa Mesa store at South Coast Plaza, the most prosperous mall in California, posted lower figures.

Vans Inc. of Orange, which sells sneakers at 70 of its own retail stores in Southern California as well as through other retail chains, reported good sales over the weekend, although year-to-year comparisons have not yet been made for same-store transactions--those at locations open for more than 12 months.

“We had a pretty good four days,” Winston Hickman, the company’s chief financial officer, said Monday.