Purchasing Managers Perk Up on the Economy : Outlook: A poll of company executives finds a new optimism on growth in 1993. But the job picture is not so rosy.

Purchasing executives at U.S. companies are more optimistic about prospects for the economy than they have been in nine years, according to a report released by a major manufacturing group Tuesday.

The National Assn. of Purchasing Management said that by a margin of 13 to 1, its members expect the economy to gain steam next year. A majority also expect inflation to remain weak.

The executives were less rosy about the employment outlook, however, with only 1 in 4 saying they expect their companies’ payrolls to expand in 1993.

“Purchasing executives are more optimistic when comparing their prospects for the next year to the previous year than they have been since projecting 1984 prospects over 1983,” said Robert Bretz, chairman of the NAPM business survey committee.

According to the survey, 77% expect improvement in 1993, 17% expect business to remain the same, and only 6% expect a decline.

The report also said manufacturers are now working at the highest rate of normal operating capacity since May, 1990--a level estimated at about 83.3%.

The group issued an upbeat forecast for Christmas sales, saying the holiday season is expected to be brighter than any since before the onset of recession.

“This is an exact reverse of last year and the most optimistic forecast since December, 1989,” the NAPM said in a statement.

The semiannual report said that NAPM members expect a 2% inflation rate next year.

But the report warned that higher growth next year will not necessarily translate into more jobs.

Only 24% of those surveyed expect their companies to boost overall employment in 1993. That represents far fewer purchasing managers than the 33% who predict that jobs will be harder to come by.

Tempe, Ariz.-based NAPM is most widely known for its monthly purchasing managers’ index, a key gauge on the health of U.S. manufacturing, which last month jumped to its highest level since May.

The group’s report was based on a survey of purchasing managers at more than 300 industrial companies. Respondents were “unanimous in their firm belief that the dollar will be stronger than the currencies of the major trading partners of the United States,” the report said.

Imports are expected to grow at a much lower rate than exports, signaling a further narrowing of the U.S. trade deficit.

On a less upbeat note, purchasers said they did not expect capital expenditures next year to increase by more than a weak 2.1%.

The report added that companies also intend to reduce inventory-to-sales ratios even more in 1993.

Of those surveyed in the report, 83% predicted higher labor and benefit costs next year, with an average increase of about 4.3%.