L.A.’s Fate Depends on Sacramento

The most important development in the Los Angeles mayoral election occurred last Friday about 600 miles north of L.A.

It happened in the State Capitol when Gov. Pete Wilson announced a state budget that all but eliminates state aid to cities, a major source of municipal income since the 1978 Proposition 13 limited the property tax. If the proposal becomes law, it would confront the new mayor with a budget deficit of at least $500 million immediately after the congratulatory handshakes and hugs of inaugural day.

The cuts in police, firefighting, garbage collection, parks and other services required by this would be so deep and unpopular that the incoming chief executive might be a one-term mayor, a disappointed politician whose fine campaign promises were submerged by the recession. “We’ve never faced anything like this before,” City Administrative Officer Keith Comrie told me Tuesday.

So if you want to keep your eye on what really matters in the campaign, don’t pay attention to the current campaign rhetoric. Ignore the pledges of reviving neighborhoods, cracking down on illegal immigrants, uplifting spirits and creating a San Fernando Valley rapid transit train-electric automobile industrial complex that will generate more jobs than World War II.

To learn L.A.’s immediate fate, you have to follow the Sacramento news and see whether the city’s legislative delegation is up to forcing other legislators and the governor to abandon or modify the Wilson proposal. Only then will the next mayor’s term be worth serving.

The question seemed especially relevant in the 9 a.m. chill of a cold San Fernando Valley day Tuesday as I watched Assemblyman Richard Katz of Sylmar announce his candidacy for mayor in a speech to about 200 supporters in front of the Van Nuys municipal building.

More than any other candidate, Katz’s chances will be influenced by whether L.A. beats back the Wilson assault.

Katz is a Sacramento veteran who has clout with Speaker Willie Brown. In his speech, he said how his legislative power has helped L.A. He promised to continue the effort if elected mayor. So, if you judge Katz by his promises, the Sacramento budget fight is a real test. As Chairman Zev Yaroslavsky of the council’s Finance Committee told me, “It will help his candidacy if he delivers, it will hurt him if he doesn’t.”

Pressure on Katz and the other L.A. lawmakers will be intense.

Wilson proposed shifting $2.6 billion from city and county governments to the public schools, which are also hurting. Los Angeles would lose $350 million. This would come on top of a $200-million loss in city sales tax revenues this year from the recession’s business decline. This combined loss of state and city revenue would add up to a deficit of more than $500 million confronting the new mayor at the beginning of the next fiscal year.

City and county officials are famous for poor-mouthing at budget time and then mysteriously coming up with enough money at the last minute to survive the crisis.

This time I think they are serious. The $500-million-plus deficit amounts to 25% of the city’s General Fund, which pays for cops, firefighters, garbage collectors and other service providers.

About 60% of the General Fund goes to the Police and Fire departments. Another 20% is for the Public Works Department, mostly rubbish collection. And 10% is for parks and libraries.

You don’t have to be smart at math to figure out where the cuts will come from. If you have trouble finding a cop now, just wait.

As the L.A. team prepares for the fight, their position is precarious.

Both Republican Gov. Wilson and Democratic Speaker Brown favor eliminating the state aid to cities to meet the state’s own huge deficit. The world, at least in its Capitol form, is against L.A.

This means Katz will have to go up against his friend Brown, as well as Wilson. Last year, in a similar fight, Katz hesitated to challenge the speaker, and Assemblyman Terry Friedman of Los Angeles had the dirty job of striking the first blow against the powerful Brown. Katz joined the fight later. He was effective when he got in, but the initial slowness still rankles Yaroslavsky.

Monday, city fiscal experts visited the Capitol for the first in a series of meetings to spur the L.A. delegation on.

This time, Katz will have to move out fast, with something concrete. Tuesday, he said he will present “21 new ideas for the 21st Century” within the next few weeks. Let’s hope he remembers the 20th Century and adds an idea for our current mess.