State Water Official Calls It ‘a Great Year’

The state’s top water official predicted Tuesday that there will be above-normal runoff from rain and snowfall across California this year, the most optimistic assessment of the state’s volatile water supply since the onset of the drought in 1986.

“We’re having a great year,” said David Kennedy, director of the Department of Water Resources, in a report to the Assembly committee on water. “We don’t need to worry this year that we are going to run out of water.”

Data collected for the department’s first water supply forecast of 1993 shows a snowpack in the Sierra Nevada that was 175% of normal on Feb. 1, the best measurement for that time of year in a decade. Even with no additional snowfall over the next two months, the snowpack is deep enough to ensure an above-average season for the first time in seven years.

In the pivotal Sacramento River Valley, the Northern Sierra watershed that accounts for one in every three gallons of water used statewide, precipitation last month was nearly double the average. The rain and snowfall in January pushed the season total there well above normal for this time of year, prompting Kennedy’s hopeful forecast.

“With about 40% of the (wet) season remaining, it is too early to be sure, but prospects are good for above-normal runoff,” Kennedy said.

Even with good news from all corners of the state, Kennedy played cat-and-mouse with legislators and reporters on questions about the drought. Many local officials, including those in Los Angeles, have declared the drought over, but for weeks Kennedy has said it is too early to make a similar statewide pronouncement.

Asked at least half a dozen times in a variety of ways whether the new data shows the drought has ended, Kennedy said neither yes nor no. Parts of the state are clearly out of the prolonged dry spell, he said, but in other parts it “still needs to be evaluated.”

An exchange with committee Chairman Dominic L. Cortese (D-San Jose) revealed Kennedy’s reluctance to be cornered on the subject.

“Is the drought over?” Cortese asked.

“I think each of us wishes we had a dollar each time we have been asked that in recent months,” Kennedy replied with a smile. “I thought of taking a poll of all of you here today.”

Kennedy went on to explain that it would be inappropriate for a state official to declare the end of the drought when some local water agencies still have not done so. In particular, he said, officials in San Francisco, Santa Clara County and much of Southern California have made no such determination.

In addition, he said, reservoir storage statewide, while far above levels last year, was still only 75% of normal for Feb. 1, and ground water basins are also depleted. The State Water Project, moreover, is likely to provide only a portion of its normal deliveries to customers statewide, he said.

“We have really struggled with this, as you can tell,” Kennedy said. “A month from now, I imagine, after we have had a chance to get through February, or if we get some huge storms the next few weeks . . . then maybe we are in the position to say, ‘That’s it.’ ”

Kennedy’s cautiousness was applauded by several legislators, including Assemblyman B. T. Collins (R-Carmichael). Collins worried aloud that any official signal that the drought has ended would invite the public to waste water, despite state and local efforts to encourage continued conservation.

“Californians by their very nature are incredibly profligate,” Collins said. “The quick fix. Instant gratification. It’s over, let’s go right back to washing down our driveways on Saturday afternoon.”

But Assemblyman Phillip Isenberg (D-Sacramento), speaking as it rained in parts of both Northern and Southern California, said there has been a communication breakdown between water technocrats and “real people,” who have grown skeptical of continued pronouncements about the drought.

“If we don’t straighten out how we talk about these things, we will continue to have nothing but sensational stories, where a drought means we are in terrible trouble and if we don’t have a drought, everything is OK,” Isenberg said.