BASEBALL / ROSS NEWHAN : Believe It or Not, 28 May Not Be Enough

It is widely denied but still widely whispered.

The expansion to Denver and Miami might not be the last until the next century, as then-Commissioner Fay Vincent first indicated.

There are owners who quietly say that both the American and National leagues should expand to 15 teams as part of the proposed realignment into three divisions each, or soon after it.

“One should never say never, but there are no expansion plans as of today, nor even the genesis of one,” said Bud Selig, chairman of baseball’s ruling executive council.

“From time to time, people say it would make sense to go to 15 and 15, but there has been no practical discussion. The assumption has been that any changes would be on the basis of 28 teams.”

Responding to a positive vote by the owners at a March meeting in Phoenix, baseball’s format committee is drawing up mock schedules of 162 games, with each league divided into three geographical divisions. Some schedules will include interleague play and some will not. There will be an extra playoff tier.

Selig was not certain that the schedules would be ready before the owners’ meetings in Chicago on April 22-23. It remains likely that realignment will not occur before 1995.

A 15th team would permit each league to divide into three divisions of five teams each. Under the current proposal, the Western Division in each league would include only four teams.

Some owners see the addition of two more teams serving other purposes as well. They believe that because it would create 50 more job openings for players in the major leagues and 200 or so in the minors, it could be a bargaining chip in the negotiations aimed at getting the players’ union to accept a salary cap and new compensation system. They also believe it might influence Congress to hold off its attack on the antitrust exemption.

Others, however, cite the impracticality of another expansion, contending that:

--There is not enough talent to stock two more teams.

--A 15th team would result in one being off every night unless there was a full schedule of interleague games.

--Aside from Tampa-St. Petersburg, baseball would have a difficult time choosing the other expansion city. No cities, other than Denver and Miami, met all the criteria during the last search, and there was a conspicuous void in the West, where the realignment need is the strongest.

“There are a myriad of problems,” Selig said. “Certainly, you can’t have a club off every day, but that’s only one of the problems.”

Nevertheless, it’s said that Vince Naimoli, who headed the group that almost landed the San Francisco Giants for Tampa-St. Petersburg, has been quietly told to keep his group together in the event of expansion, and that some owners like the idea of another $190-million payday for baseball.

They also contend that the enthusiasm accompanying the debuts of the Colorado Marlins and Florida Rockies has provided a needed boost on which baseball should capitalize. There is even some sentiment for a 30-team geographical realignment into three leagues of 10 each.

It may not happen by ’95 or ‘96, but don’t be misled by the denials.

NATURAL HIGH

Tom Stephen, a University of Denver research physicist, didn’t have a ticket for the Rockies’ opening series against the Montreal Expos at Mile High Stadium, but he will follow the results there with great interest.

Stephen co-authored a study for the major leagues on how the city’s 5,280-foot elevation would affect games and concluded that the ball would travel 9% farther than in stadiums at sea level, where the air density is 17% greater.

He noted, however, that the liberal dimensions at Mile High--in right center, at least, where it’s 400 feet--might lead to more doubles and triples than home runs.

American Assn. figures confirm that home run totals at Mile High were generally comparable to other parks, but that cumulative batting averages could be as much as 50 points higher. Denver’s minor league hitters led the double A in batting in eight of the last 12 years and in home runs six of 12.

It basically comes down to the quality of the pitcher and hitter, Rockies catcher Joe Girardi said.

“You can talk all you want about (the impact of the altitude on home runs), but they used to call that stadium in Atlanta the launching pad, and I haven’t heard much about that in the last two years,” he said.

Girardi meant that with Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Steve Avery and others pitching for the Braves, the impact of the Atlanta altitude--baseball’s second highest--has been lowered.

ROLE PLAYER

He has been a National League most valuable player twice, a seven-time All-Star. He has won five Gold Gloves and two home run titles. He is headed to the Hall of Fame, but Dale Murphy’s journey has taken a strange last turn. At 37, he has agreed to serve as a pinch-hitter and part-time outfielder with the expansion Rockies, earning a $200,000 base salary after being recently released by the Philadelphia Phillies.

“I didn’t want my career to end after having played only a couple weeks and spending most of the summer in a hospital,” Murphy said, alluding to 1992, when he started only 18 games and hit only two homers for the Phillies because of a fragile left knee that has required surgery or draining seven times since November of 1991.

“The Phillies couldn’t count on me coming back,” he said. “They had to protect themselves. I understand that, but there are guys playing with a lot worse knees than me. It’s a matter of working on it, keeping it strong.

“The frustration last year was that it had felt good when the season started, then weakened. That’s why I wanted to see if I could come back.”

At this point, it will be a limited comeback, but the Rockies say Murphy can contribute during their difficult times ahead by his mere presence. A class act, even if not in the spotlight.

THE POX

The Expos start a rookie shortstop (Wil Cordero), a rookie catcher (Tim Laker) and inexperienced platoons at first and third base, including rookies Sean Berry and Frank Bolick at the hot corner.

It seems ironic that with all that youth, eight rookies in all, second baseman Delino DeShields, a semi-veteran, would come down with chicken pox, usually a childhood ailment, and be lost to the Expos for a week or more.

“We weren’t that rich on experienced infielders even with Delino in the lineup,” Manager Felipe Alou said. “We can’t afford to have him out long.”

DeShields has played only 416 major league games but is the third-most experienced position player in the Montreal starting lineup behind Larry Walker and Marquis Grissom.

FINANCIAL PLANNING

The boat accident that claimed the lives of Steve Olin and Tim Crews and sidelined Bob Ojeda left the Cleveland Indians with such pitching problems that they have been forced to sign Matt Young, Bob Milacki and Jason Grimsley, who have a combined major league record of 96-138, to triple-A contracts.

In addition, attempting to stay a year or two ahead of salary inflation and avoid arbitration with their top young players, the Indians gave second baseman Carlos Baerga a contract extension that could bind him to the Indians through 1999 and total $26.066 million.

Eighteen Indian players have multiyear contracts.

“It’s the only way a small-market team like ours with limited resources can survive,” General Manager John Hart said. “It’s our solution to a very bad system. Arbitration is like a gun at a team’s head. It drives a wedge between the player and team. It causes undue friction, and we don’t need that.”

Baerga, who on Thursday became the first switch-hitter in major league history to homer from both sides of the plate in the same inning, is giving up three years of free agency, but $26 million is a handsome deal for a player with only three years of major league service.

“Maybe I could have made more in New York or somewhere else, but I’m happy in Cleveland,” he said. “I like the fans, the players and the front office. I’d like to finish my career with the Indians.”

TURNOVER

The Pittsburgh Pirates opened the season with seven rookies on their 25-man roster, prompting Andy Van Slyke to compare General Manager Ted Simmons to President Clinton.

“They both have a lot of programs and ideas, but they don’t have any money,” Van Slyke said.