BASEBALL / ROSS NEWHAN : Dodgers Want to Make Sure This Pick Works Out

If it turns out that Jose Offerman isn’t the Dodger shortstop of the ‘90s, Alex Rodriguez might be.

Rodriguez is the acclaimed senior shortstop at Westminster Christian High in Miami.

He and Wichita State pitcher Darren Dreifort are expected to be the top two selections in next month’s amateur draft.

The Seattle Mariners have the top pick, followed by the Dodgers. It’s the Dodgers’ highest pick ever, the result of their last-place finish in ’92.

In a Times story the other day, club owner Peter O’Malley said that many of the Dodgers’ problems stem from an interruption of the flow of talent from the farm system.

“One reason we haven’t done well is that we lost our No. 1 draft picks,” O’Malley said. “Whether that was because they didn’t perform, or to injuries or of a mistake in judgment, that hurt us and we are paying for it now.”

Does that increase the pressure to get it right this time?

Terry Reynolds, who has been scouting director since October of 1990, said, “You always try to get it right.”

He conceded, however, that the ’93 pick is that much more important because it’s such a high one.

He wouldn’t discuss the Dodgers’ plan, but sources say it would be a shock if they didn’t take whoever the Mariners leave after choosing between Dreifort and Rodriguez.

And at this point, with still a month in which it can change and most of the Seattle scouting department favoring the everyday player, Manager Lou Piniella is apparently pushing the other way.

He would prefer the college pitcher, figuring that Dreifort would probably have a quicker impact at the major league level than a high school shortstop, though scouts generally agree that the only adjustment the 6-foot-3, 195-pound Rodriguez will have to make as a pro is to a wood bat.

Said one scout: “You don’t have to wait for him to get bigger and stronger because he already is.”

Said another: “He’s a Cal Ripken clone.”

Rodriguez has accepted a scholarship to Miami, but it’s unlikely he will go to a four-year college because he would be ineligible to be drafted again until after his junior year.

The price for either Dreifort or Rodriguez will be high, with the shortstop possibly breaking the record $1.55-million package Brien Taylor received from the New York Yankees, but neither the Mariners nor Dodgers can afford not to sign one of the nation’s top two selections.

And neither the Dodgers’ publicly stated commitment to Offerman nor their poor record with first-round pitchers will affect their approach to Rodriguez and Dreifort, said Reynolds, who didn’t mention those two players by name.

“We’ll take the best available player, no matter if he’s a pitcher or position player,” Reynolds said.

The Angels, who have a sorry draft record of their own but who have started to turn it around under Bob Fontaine Jr. and Bill Bavasi--as evidenced by Tim Salmon, Damion Easley, Chad Curtis and other farm products currently on the varsity--will also be under the microscope in this draft, selecting third, directly behind the Dodgers.

Their plan, sources indicate, is to select a college pitcher to replace their No. 1 of last year, UCLA’s Pete Janicki, whose career is in doubt because of a broken bone in his elbow.

The Angels are expected to choose Jeff Granger of Texas A&M;, Steve Soderstrom of Fresno State, Wayne Gomes of Old Dominion, Brian Anderson of Wright State or Alan Benes of Creighton.

DOOMSDAY

It was thought to be one of the best drafts of pitching prospects, one that would enable the Oakland Athletics to maintain their American League West dynasty through the ‘90s.

But only Todd Van Poppel, the Texas high school sensation currently at triple-A Tacoma, remains “more or less on schedule and definitely still in our plans,” said A’s General Manager Sandy Alderson.

Of the other 1990 hopes: Kirk Dressendorfer of Texas, who developed so quickly that he was starting for the A’s in ‘91, had reconstructive shoulder surgery similar to Orel Hershiser’s and is rehabilitating in extended spring training in Arizona; David Zancanaro of UCLA, a bullpen candidate this spring, had shoulder surgery two weeks ago, and Don Peters is also in extended spring training after elbow surgery similar to Tommy John’s.

“It shows you the fragile nature of pitching and the fragile nature of the drafting and development of pitching,” Alderson said.

The fallout, of course, has been severe. There were no built-in replacements as the A’s tried to prioritize their 15 free agents of last winter. They elected to retain the nucleus of their lineup by re-signing Mark McGwire, Ruben Sierra and Terry Steinbach. Starting pitchers Dave Stewart and Mike Moore left.

“If they had progressed the way they might have, and the way we hoped they would, our rotation would definitely look different,” Alderson said of the class of 1990.

Instead, as the A’s look up from the unaccustomed position of last in the American League West, saddled with an earned-run average of more than 5.00, they must hope that Dave Duncan, the respected pitching coach, can work wonders with Bobby Witt and Storm Davis, and that Bob Welch, 36, and Ron Darling, 32, can regain past form.

The A’s have several other questions, but pitching was always the foundation of their success. Can they get back in a race that has 4 1/2 months remaining?

“If the bullpen is as good as we think it is, perhaps,” Alderson said. “If the division is as even as we think it is, maybe. If we get one or two big years out of our key starters . . . “

PIAZZA PLAN

The Dodgers have talked about this only privately, but they are giving some thought to moving catcher Mike Piazza to third base in the future, as the St. Louis Cardinals did with Todd Zeile.

Aside from Carlos Hernandez, the Dodgers have two catching prospects at the lower levels of their farm system in Felix Rodriguez and Ryan Luzinski. Piazza had hit or walked in all 25 of his starts through Friday, is ahead of Eric Karros’ 1992 rookie-of-the-year pace in home runs and runs batted in, but is currently experiencing some throwing problems, having nailed only one of the last 16 base stealers through Friday.

BORDER LINE

Bruce Hurst, sidelined by a shoulder injury since the start of the season, throws his third simulated game today, may go on rehabilitation assignment next week and could rejoin the San Diego Padres’ rotation during the last week of May.

It is unlikely, however, that Hurst will get a prolonged opportunity to improve what General Manager Joe McIlvaine said has been “the overall mediocrity” of Padre pitching.

It is expected that the bottom-line owners will force him to unload Hurst’s salary once the left-hander has proved he is recovered.

McIlvaine, like Hurst, is a short-timer in San Diego. He has been a critic of the economic restraints that have forced him to dismantle his contending club of last summer. As a result, the owners are expected to exercise a contract option and fire him in July, freeing them of the final two years of his salary.

Larry Doughty, who worked for the Dodgers last year and now does special assignments for the Padres, is likely to take over for the rest of the year, while the owners decide whether to elevate scouting director Reggie Waller, bring back former manager Greg Riddoch as general manager or hire an outsider--perhaps Walt Jocketty, an aide to Alderson.

Why anyone would want to work under the restrictions in San Diego is hard to fathom. McIlvaine, who helped build the New York Met powerhouses of the ‘80s, deserved better, but he should not be unemployed long. The Dodgers, for example, would be smart to recognize their need for a baseball voice at or near the top of their organization and ask him to move up the I-5 freeway.

“I’m an honest man and not a politician,” McIlvaine said of the comments that have put him in a tenuous position with the owners. “I have an idea what’s going to happen in July, but I’m not worried about it. I’m spending seven days a week, 16 hours a day, trying to figure ways to improve the club.”

No easy task, but it may not turn out all negative. Take the deal in which Darrin Jackson and his $2.1-million salary were shipped to Toronto for outfielder Derek Bell. A giveaway by the Padres? Perhaps not.

Bell, batting .261 with five home runs, 13 runs batted in and five stolen bases through Thursday, has begun to show some of the talent he displayed in the minors--where he was player of the year in 1991.

“He’s got all five tools,” McIlvaine said. “In batting practice, he has more pure power than (Fred) McGriff. He can put up some pretty good numbers. He’s capable of reaching the high 20s and 30s (in home runs). He’s comfortable here with (Gary) Sheffield and McGriff, his buddies from Tampa. It’s his best chance to succeed and succeed big.”

If Bell produces consistently, and Phil Plantier, obtained from Boston in December for pitcher Jose Melendez, hits as well when he gets off the disabled list as he did before, an offense that includes McGriff, Sheffield and Tony Gwynn could be formidable, and Padre chances may not be as bleak as ownership critics claim.

Said McIlvaine, who has been one of the critics: “Unless our pitching improves (and we are allowed to keep Hurst), we’re not going to contend.”