State’s Politicians Prepare for the Mad Scramble of ’94 : Elections: Term limits have officeholders eyeing posts from governor on down. Big names are circling warily.

Blame it on the term limits shuffle, or a bad case of itchy feet among incumbent California officeholders: Whatever the reason, the 1994 state elections are stacking up as the biggest mass transfer of political ambition in memory.

At least five of the top eight constitutional offices will be absent an elected incumbent, a circumstance that is luring dozens of legislators and others toward statewide bids. Gov. Pete Wilson, weakened by dismal popularity ratings, is drawing multiple challenges from Democrats--and, some suggest, possibly from fellow Republicans.

Another incumbent, Secretary of State March Fong Eu, says she now plans to run for reelection, but holds open the option of joining the Clinton Administration. Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren appears to be facing an uncontested GOP primary but may find three or more Democrats vying for his job.

Even Sen. Dianne Feinstein, at this point one of the state’s most popular political figures, will not be spared--two Republicans, one of them with deeper financial resources than Feinstein, appear to be gearing up for a challenge.

True, what looks at present to be a wildly complicated election year could peter out if candidates currently considering running find their support, fund raising or personal will ebbing in the next several months. But that is not likely, for one simple reason: term limits.

“For those of us who are really committed to public service, term limits is a death sentence,” said Burlingame Assemblywoman Jackie Speier, a Democrat pondering a bid for state controller. “So it becomes a situation whether to leave public service altogether or seek another position.”

Term limits do not explain the entire political shift that will take place in California next year. One long-term incumbent--Lt. Gov. Leo T. McCarthy--is dropping out of elective politics. The office of state superintendent of public instruction has been vacant since incumbent Bill Honig was convicted on conflict-of-interest charges earlier this year. Two others, Treasurer Kathleen Brown and Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi, are likely to run for governor, and Controller Gray Davis is almost certain to run for lieutenant governor.

Board of Equalization member Brad Sherman, considering a bid for controller, sees a baseball analogy for the 1994 wanna-bes: They are like a bunch of Double-A ballplayers gazing longingly at the major leagues, he says. And this year their chances of hooking onto a big-league team are better because the number of needy teams in the league has expanded.

Still, he says, “All of us Double-A folks, we’re all influenced by term limits. We might be biding our time--if we had some time to bide.”

Democrats are particularly fond of the pool of talent that they see themselves assembling next year.

“We have strong players who have been around, are well known, and have a strong contributor base,” said party Chairman Bill Press.

Republicans will not go that far, and some acknowledge that apart from Wilson and Lungren their ranks are dominated by people unknown outside their own districts or the confines of Sacramento.

“We don’t have a long bench with a great number of people with statewide exposure on our side,” said Republican state Senate leader Ken Maddy of Fresno.

One of the Republicans currently considering a statewide bid lamented the bland nature of things in the GOP.

“There’s a fond hope that a movie star-actor-famous name-sports figure Republican will step out sometime and provide a pizazz that will energize the party,” the GOP loyalist said.

“I don’t think anyone (who fits that bill) is that interested. But one thing that Ross Perot and Richard Riordan (have shown is that) no political experience” is necessary.

Generally, the 1994 races can be split into three rough categories: those that will attract attention (the races for U.S. Senate and for governor), one that might attract attention (the contest for lieutenant governor) and the also-rans (races in which the candidates will valiantly try to avoid being buried alive by the big-name contests).

Following are sketches of the races as they now stack up, as handicapped by potential candidates, their advisers and independent political operatives--most of whom spoke on condition of anonymity. A caution: Few candidates, at this early date, are willing to put it all on the line and admit that they are absolutely, positively running for a specific office.

SENATE: This race comes closest to being an acknowledged slam dunk for the incumbent. Feinstein was elected in 1992 to fill the rest of the term vacated by Wilson. This year, as she seeks a full six-year term, she enters the election season with high marks--58% of registered voters told the Field Poll they favor her reelection.

“No matter who goes against Feinstein, they are smoking dope. They are not going to beat her. She’s solid and conservative enough,” said one Republican.

Nevertheless, the senator may indeed face a challenge. Rep. Christopher Cox (R-Newport Beach) said he is “very strongly leaning” toward challenging Feinstein. In a letter to contributors, he indicated that he would run.

Also mulling a bid is Rep. Michael Huffington (R-Santa Barbara), a multimillionaire whose run for office last year was so dependent on his personal wealth that he earned the nickname “Perot-by-the-Sea.” Huffington is said to be talking to political consultants; his spokeswoman issued a classic non-denial denial on his behalf.

GOVERNOR: Even Pete Wilson might acknowledge that he makes an enticing target.

On the Democratic side, Treasurer Brown and Insurance Commissioner Garamendi are running unofficial but thinly disguised campaigns. Friends of Assembly Speaker Willie Brown are talking him up, but he and his aides give little credence to the talk.

Among Republicans, only conservatives, who have long disagreed with Wilson, are speaking openly of a challenge. At the top of the rumor list right now is Los Angeles County Supervisor Mike Antonovich, who declined to return phone calls on the subject.

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR: As blood baths go, this may be the messiest. At the least, it will test any notion of unity in the newly rejuvenated Democratic Party. With McCarthy leaving office, Controller Davis has indicated his desire to move up--and so has former party Chairman Phil Angelides. A relative unknown outside political circles, Angelides has already raised more than $1 million, and has earned the endorsement of both California senators and a host of other officials.

There is more than simple favoritism at work: This is a grudge match. Davis earned the enmity of Feinstein and her partisans last year when, in the Senate primary, he aired television commercials comparing her to hotel queen Leona Helmsley, a convicted tax evader. While Davis and his backers insist that the long knives have been sheathed, most Democrats scoff at the idea of forgiveness.

“Dianne Feinstein may have, but Richard Blum has not,” snickered one Democrat, referring to Feinstein’s husband and most prominent political backer.

The race has also drawn the interest of Assemblyman Rusty Areias (D-San Jose), who is considering several open seats.

Among Republicans, the race is the purview of several politicians virtually unknown outside their districts. State Sen. Bill Leonard (R-Upland) said he is pondering a run, as is former GOP Assembly leader Bill Jones of Fresno.

ATTORNEY GENERAL: Lungren appears to have a free ride in the Republican primary, but he is likely to see a familiar face on the other side of the aisle. San Francisco Dist. Atty. Arlo Smith, the Democrat who narrowly lost to Lungren in 1990, is readying a new campaign. Also exploring the race are Assemblyman Tom Umberg (D-Garden Grove) and Los Angeles City Atty. James K. Hahn.

Hahn, however, issues a word of caution. Recently, he said, he asked his father, the legendary former Los Angeles County Supervisor Kenneth Hahn, if he could remember the last sitting attorney general to be booted out of office. The elder Hahn, the repository of more than half a century of political wisdom, had a ready answer. “He couldn’t remember anybody,” James Hahn said.

SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION: One thing is certain: For the first time in 12 years, the office will not be filled by Honig, whose tenure was cut short by his conviction. Everything else is uncertain, at least on the Republican side. Wilson’s nomination of state Sen. Marian Bergeson (R-Newport Beach) as Honig’s replacement was scuttled by the Legislature, leaving the office vacant. Republicans who might be interested are waiting to see if Wilson can push a new nominee through the Democratic Legislature. One of them is Peter G. Mehas, the Fresno County superintendent of schools. If he is not appointed by Wilson, Mehas said, a run for election would be far less enticing. “I think it makes it much more difficult,” he said.

On the Democratic side, Assembly Education Committee Chairwoman Delaine Eastin of Oakland is giving the race, as they say, “very serious consideration” and as yet has no prominent opposition.

INSURANCE COMMISSIONER: For this seat, which will be vacated if Garamendi runs for governor, Democratic speculation centers on state Sen. Art Torres of Los Angeles. Some Democrats, however, hope that Garamendi will be persuaded to drop out of the governor’s race, avoiding an expensive primary.

Among Republicans, there is little active interest. “Any Republican who runs for that seat is just nuts,” said one GOP political operative.

NONE OF THE ABOVE: Three races are shaping up as fairly interchangeable, at least as far as some of the candidates are concerned. For secretary of state, much depends on the decision of incumbent Eu. If Eu is in, the Democratic field may begin and end with her. If she is not, Los Angeles Assemblywoman Gwen Moore might run. Other possibilities include Speier, who says she would prefer to run for controller, and state Senate President David A. Roberti of Van Nuys, who is most often mentioned as a candidate for treasurer.

Eu also may have some influence over the Republican entrants; her son, Matt Fong, a member of the state Board of Equalization, might run for secretary of state if his mother does not. Fong, however, is more often considered a candidate for controller or treasurer. Another potential candidate--for secretary of state as well as lieutenant governor or controller--is former Assembly leader Jones.

Familiar names come up in the contest to replace incumbent Davis as controller. Besides Jones and Fong on the GOP side, and Hahn, Speier, Roberti and Areias among the Democrats, Board of Equalization member Sherman is also intent on running. A Democrat, Sherman half-jokes, “I am one of the few people for whom this office is not interchangeable.”

The race for treasurer offers the potential of better-known candidates. Democratic whispers suggest that of the races he is looking at, Roberti is most likely to seek the treasurer’s post--if he seeks to stay in politics after term limits cast him out of office next year. Areias, a perennial would-be candidate, also is said to be pondering this seat. And former Los Angeles City Councilman Michael Woo is said to be considering treasurer, controller or secretary of state.

Among Republicans, Fong and would-be Senate candidate Huffington are said to be interested.

The most enticing name to be entered into the treasurer’s mix--with no public acknowledgment from him, of course--is that of Willie Brown. He is said to be attracted by the vast shadow that another former Speaker, Jesse Unruh, was able to cast during his tenure as the state’s money man.

For virtually all of the races, even the best-connected political insiders acknowledge that the names being circulated could be eclipsed by winter, when the contests will begin in earnest.

“There’s going to be a lot of trading around,” said Maddy. For the record, Maddy has sworn off running for statewide office next year. “I’m happy to remain Senate minority leader,” he said.

Times political writer Bill Stall contributed to this story.