HORSE RACING : A Tip: Think of the Big Picture

Horseplayers studying Saturday’s Maryland Million races should bear in mind a handicapping lesson and a major controversy that spiced Canada’s most important horse race this summer.

Peteski had been considered his country’s top 3-year-old when he tuned up for the prestigious Queen’s Plate in a prep race, the Plate Trial. He lost the Trial as the odds-on favorite, and his reputation was diminished when he went into the main event. But when the big money was on the line in the Plate itself, Peteski demolished his rivals and scored a six-length victory.

In the exuberance of the moment, jockey Craig Perret told interviewers that he could have won the previous race if he had put more pressure on Peteski. WHen those comments appeared in print, many bettors were incensed, as were Woodbine’s stewards and some members of the Ontario Racing Commission. They summoned Perret back to Canada for a hearing and slapped him with a fine and a 15-day suspension that ignited debate on both sides of the border.

Is it legitimate for a jockey to put forth less than a 100 percent effort when a horse is prepping for some future objective? Most people observing the Canadian controversy felt that Perret’s offense was speaking the truth, not the way he rode Peteski, for it has always has been an accepted training technique to use certain races as preps to get a horse sharp and fit. Bettors don’t need to be constantly paranoid about the intentions of stables, but they should be wary when one race on a horse’s schedule is disproportionately important for him. This is the case with Canadian 3-year-olds approaching the Queen’s Plate, and with most Maryland horses going into the Maryland Million.

This day of races for offspring of Maryland stallions is the most important race of the year for many of the participants. Many will never again have a plausible chance of competing for a six-figure purse. Trainers have planned for months -- sometimes for a year -- to get their horses revved up for a maximum effort in the Million. Horses’ past performances should be interpreted accordingly.

A case in point is the sprinter Smart Alec, who last season showed that he could compete with some of the best six-furlong specialists in the East. Idle for nine months, he returned to competition in an allowance race at Pimlico two weeks ago. It shouldn’t have taken too much imagination for a horseplayer to judge whether Smart Alec was making an all-out effort to win that $27,000 event or simply prepping for the Million, but the Daily Racing Form’s comment on his performance drives the point home: “Not whipped.” It is by no means certain that Smart Alec is sharp enough to beat his formidable rivals Coolin It and Jest Punching, but he is surely going to deliver a much-improved performance in the $100,000 Sprint Handicap.

Ritchie Trail also has the look of a horse being tuned up for a maximum effort. Rested for two months, she returned to competition in an allowance race at six furlongs -- a distance clearly too short for her -- and she delivered a so-so rally to finish fourth. Now she is entered at the appropriate distance, seven furlongs, in the $100,000 Maryland Distaff. She too is going to run much better than a literal reading of her last race would suggest.

In the main event, the $150,000 Maryland Classic, Ameri Valay looks like a horse who has geared up for a top effort. Laid off during the summer, he won an allowance race in September even though jockey Mark Johnston made no effort to use his mount’s considerable speed. Today, against a field largely devoid of other speed, Johnston will surely be more aggressive and Ameri Valay may be able to control the race from start to finish.

One of the most shrewdly prepared horses on Saturday’s card is Champion Jay, who will have the best money-making opportunity of her career against a weak field in the $100,000 Maryland Oaks. The 3-year-old filly doesn’t possess much tactical speed; she trailed the field much of the way in a stakes for Maryland-breds this summer. So two weeks ago trainer Carlos Garcia entered her in a six-furlong race. Champion Jay didn’t have a prayer in a race so short, but the effort presumably sharpened her for this 1 1/8-mile event. Against a field filled with speed horses of questionable stamina, she should be able to win -- and demonstrate how effective a well-conceived prep race can be.