Electric-Car Researchers Meet in Laguna to Share : Findings on Marketability
Preliminary consumer testing of electric cars shows that they can be used for more than three-fourths of daily trips and cost less in fueling than many gasoline-powered vehicles, researchers said Thursday.
More than 100 auto industry, public utility and academic researchers shared these and other findings at a two-day workshop here devoted to the electric car and sponsored by the University of California’s Institute of Traffic Studies.
The researchers cautioned that, while they are encouraged by the limited testing conducted so far, many questions remain. Two of the biggest: How many consumers will be willing to buy electric vehicles, and how much will they be willing to sacrifice in price and performance compared to gasoline-powered cars?
“Hopefully, the vehicles will be available that people are willing to buy,” said David Brownstone, associate professor of economics at UC Irvine.
California’s clean-air rules require that electric cars account for 5% of all new vehicle purchases by 1998 and 18% by 2003. Even as auto makers plan ways of meeting these requirements, skeptics have voiced growing concern about whether drivers will buy the new vehicles.
The workshop evaluated consumer testing programs conducted by Southern California Edison and Pacific Gas & Electric Co. involving several electric vehicles placed either in business fleets or with individual families.
Among the findings, researchers said, was that the power-producing capabilities of regional public utilities are probably sufficient to handle the daily recharging of electric vehicle batteries, but those of the smaller, more local electrical distribution lines are not.
To avoid the problem, utilities may have to offer consumers a discount to recharge their cars after 10 p.m., during non-peak hours, said Ernest Morales of SCE and Don Fitzgerald of PG&E.;
In a typical example of a consumer test, a Los Angeles woman was able to recharge a converted Geo Metro 70% of the time at home and 30% at other locations. In another case, one woman recharged her vehicle at her child’s nursery school.
But consumer acceptance could be a problem.
“I don’t want to shift my life,” said Tom Doughty, a manager at the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power. “I think I’m representative of the typical customer.”
Indeed, preliminary marketing studies show resistance to electric vehicles, partly because they are expected to cost more than gasoline vehicles, require costly battery replacements and have a range of as few as 100 miles on a single charge even by the year 2010.
The first-day workshop, held in a hotel conference room, included findings of a public survey of nearly 5,000 people in urban areas of Northern and Southern California. The survey, conducted between May and August, showed that 10% of the respondents’ garages have electrical outlets, that only half need to make trips of at least 100 miles more than six times a year and that 75% are involved in household sharing of vehicles.
The study also examined trade-offs that may influence buying decisions, such as price versus acceleration or vehicle range. The survey showed, for example, that a consumer might be willing to pay $2,000 extra to gain 33 additional miles of vehicle range per battery charge.
