Violence Up in O.C., but Crime Rate Down : Statistics: Analysis of state and federal figures shows that fear may exceed risk for most county residents.

More than ever, Orange County citizens are worried about a rising tide of violence and the safety of their neighborhoods, but the general public might not be any more at risk from crime than it was five or 10 years ago.

Two standard measures of criminal activity, one used by the FBI and another by the state Department of Justice, indicate that the number of serious felony crimes committed in Orange County per 100,000 residents has actually dropped since the early 1980s.

In addition, despite the fact that violent crime has increased at least twice as fast as local population growth, some law enforcement experts say the threat of violence is not evenly spread, because the majority of assaults and homicides involve young men and gang members.

“Violent crime is a reasonable thing for people to worry about. But frequently, people are concerned more than is warranted,” said Bryan Vila, a former gang unit sergeant for the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department and now an assistant professor of criminology at UC Irvine. “If you are not a young male, hanging out where alcohol is served, or with a gang, your chances of being a victim of violence have probably not increased.”

While other law enforcement officials agree with Vila, that is no cause for complacency, they say. A handful of high-profile gang incidents have now blemished parts of the county that have traditionally been low-crime areas, such as Irvine, Lake Forest and San Clemente--middle-class havens for those trying to escape crime-ridden communities.

Nothing, perhaps, epitomizes the situation more than the fatal wounding of Steve Woods in San Clemente, which has stirred strong emotions among South County residents. In mid-October, the 17-year-old was speared through the head with a paint-roller rod during a confrontation with gang members at Calafia Beach Park.

Homicides countywide have more than doubled from 83 in 1982 to 173 in 1992, and the overall number of violent crimes--murders, rapes, robberies and serious assaults--has swelled almost 61%. Gang-related attacks are also on the increase. In Santa Ana, for example, gang-related homicides now account for 44 of the city’s 76 slayings. In 1992, 22 murders were attributed to gangs in that city.

“Anytime you have an increase in violent crime, you have some people being put at greater risk,” said acting Anaheim Police Chief Jimmie Kennedy. “Carjackings are up. Gang shootings are up, and innocent bystanders get hit. Crime is not to the extent where we all should be living indoors, but we all should be concerned about it.”

According to UC Irvine’s annual opinion survey of Orange County, local concern and fear of crime has never been greater. For the first time in the poll’s 12-year history, crime surpassed traffic congestion and the economy as the most serious concern of local residents.

Of those polled, 29% cited crime as the most worrisome problem in the county--up 12 points from the year before. Regardless of what region they lived in, most people said they believed crime was on the rise in their neighborhoods.

The survey’s findings also found that Orange County residents are far more concerned that they or someone close to them would become the victim of a violent crime than they are about any other single issue affecting their lives.

A Times Orange County Poll conducted in August also showed that county residents ranked crime and gangs as the most serious problems confronting their communities.

But some police and law enforcement experts caution that some of the worry, particularly from the middle class, might be misplaced, even destructive. Fear of crime in its worst form, they say, can actually be counterproductive for society, because people become shut-ins, less trusting and unwilling to help someone in trouble.

Although crime in Orange County is a serious problem, and violence has been on the rise, Vila and others said there are some reasons to be optimistic, especially for a large portion of the county’s population.

“For the average citizen, I don’t think that there is much more risk today,” said Santa Ana Lt. Robert Helton, whose city has been increasingly hit by gang violence. “Some trends like carjacking have a greater potential impact for the average person. But with homicide, the average person is as safe as five or 10 years ago.”

Helton blamed the increasing violence in large part on gang rivalries and the desire of gang members to retaliate against another gangs. Though bystanders can and do get hurt, he said, gangs “usually do not deliberately single out innocent people to shoot.”

In many of the city’s murder cases, Helton said, “We see a substantial number of people in their 20s and early 30s who are the shooters. They are in the bolder age group and not afraid of the confrontations.”

Despite the dramatic rise in assault, murder and robbery, those offenses represent no more than 20% of the total amount of reported crime, which is overwhelmingly dominated by property offenses such as larceny, burglary and vehicle theft.

National victimization studies from the U.S. Department of Justice also show that certain groups within the population are more at risk than others. Most crime hits minorities, those earning less than $15,000 a year, and young males of ages 15 through 25. People in that age category are twice as likely to be victims of crime, especially violent crime, as those 26 and older.

“Orange County is a large heterogenous county,” Vila said, “but historically, young males and minority members of the population are disproportionately going to be the victims. Yet the fear is not evenly distributed across the county.”

Law enforcement officials said they also found some solace in recent indications that certain crimes have been in retreat for some years. According to the FBI Crime Index, overall crime in Orange County has steadily dropped for the last decade.

In 1982, there were 6,140 major felonies reported per 100,000 people. By 1992 that number had gradually decreased to about 5,700. The California Crime Index reflects the same trend.

The state and FBI annually track homicide, forcible rape, aggravated assault, robbery, burglary, motor vehicle theft, larceny and arson--eight major felonies the public is likely to report to police.

The statistics are flawed, however, and considerably underestimate the level of crime. National victimization studies conducted by the U. S. Department of Justice indicate that nearly two-thirds of all crimes, felonies included, are never reported to police.

The FBI and California Crime Indexes show that the number of serious crimes has increased in Orange County, but at rate lower than the 27% growth in population, and at a slower pace than in other suburban counties around the country.

The optimistic picture depicted by the overall crime figures is marred, however, by violent crime, which has outpaced the county’s population growth over the last decade by more than 35%. Most of that increase in violent crime, police say, is attributable to increased gang activity.

Overall, the FBI and state indexes show that violent crime has increased 61%.

Property-related crime--burglaries, thefts and arson--have jumped 11% for a total crime increase of 14% since 1982. But because the population grew 27% over the same period, the number of crimes per 100,000 people has dropped 9%.

Nationally, suburban counties with populations of 100,000 or more have not fared as well as Orange County, said Bruce Taylor, a statistician with the U.S. Department of Justice. Since 1982, those counties have had population growth of about 20% and total crime increases of 24%.

Of urbanized areas, the city of Los Angeles recently had almost twice the number of reported crimes than Orange County--9,870 per 100,000 population in 1991, compared to about 5,700 in Orange County.

“Obviously, rural areas are going to have less crime than the suburbs and the urban areas,” Taylor said. “But Orange County’s rate is not too bad when you compare it to the nation’s major urban areas.”

With the latest poll results and the public’s concern focused strongly on crime, Anaheim’s Kennedy and UCI’s Vila said they are hopeful that something positive will result. Already, the county has held a summit to discuss the proliferation of street gangs. More than 1,000 people--police, educators, social workers, and former gang members--attended.

“I am optimistic in some respects,” Vila said. “We are getting closer and closer to dealing with the serious problems of crime. Sectors of society are starting to say we can’t reduce crime by just putting more cops on the street or just installing better alarm systems. We are beginning to see that some long-term approaches are needed to get at the roots of criminal behavior.”

* CRIME DATA SHOWS DROP: Crime decreases nationwide, but fears do not. A3

Crime Picture Both Good, Bad

From 1982 to 1992, overall crime in Orange County, measured by the FBI Crime Index, grew at a rate of only about half the population increase. So the crime rate--the number of crimes per 100,000 residents--actually decreased. But while the overall crime rate fell, violent crimes--murders, rapes, serious assaults and armed robberies--shot up 61%. The good news: Both violent and property crimes show signs of leveling off.

Violent crimes ‘92: 13,557 Property crimes* ‘92: 128,511 Total crimes ‘92: 142,066 Crime rate* ‘92: 5,571 * The number of FBI Index crimes per 100,000 residents.

Percentage changes Violent crime: 61% Property crime: 11% Total crime: 14% Population: 27% Crime rate: -9% Crime categories Violent crime: Homicide, forcible rape, robbery and aggravated assault Property crime: Burglary, motor vehicle theft, larceny and arson Together: The eight major crimes that make up the FBI’s Crime Index. Sources: Bureau of Justice Statistics, U.S. Department of Justice