County Jobless Rate Drops in November : Employment: The improvement to 8.2% from October’s 9.2% may be deceptive, reflecting job seekers giving up the hunt.
Ventura County’s unemployment rate dipped to 8.2% in November from 9.2% in October, a decline economists called deceptive because it may largely reflect an increasing number of frustrated job seekers dropping out of the labor market.
Mark Schniepp, an economist at UC Santa Barbara, noted that while the unemployment rate dropped a full percentage point in November, non-agricultural jobs in Ventura County actually rose by only 1,000 that month--an increase of 0.4%.
“That’s a tiny little blip,” he said. “It’s some stable news, but nothing to write home about.”
Linda Reed, a state market analyst who compiles unemployment figures for the Employment Development Department, agreed that the statistics are probably not signals of economic hope for the county. “We know there are those (unemployed) who are becoming discouraged” and falling out of the labor force, she said.
“Yes, I’m discouraged,” said Joe Clancy, 31, at the Ventura unemployment office where he was applying for benefits. Clancy worked for more than a year at Frito-Lay before having his hours cut in half when the company downsized six months ago.
“What I’m finding is that the companies who are hiring know they can screw you over. They hold all the cards because so many people are desperate for work and will take anything.”
Figures show, however, that the county’s employment picture is slightly better than the recent statewide trend. California’s unemployment rate fell to 8.6% in November from 9.4% in October. At the same time, the state lost 11,500 jobs--illustrating, economists say, that many job seekers have either dropped out of the labor force or have moved elsewhere.
None of these figures, which come from a report issued monthly by the state, are adjusted for seasonal changes.
The national unemployment rate dropped from 6.3% in October to 6.1% in November. Since the number of jobs rose as well, economists hailed the figures as a strong sign of a recovering U.S. economy.
Schniepp predicted that the county will continue to lose jobs well into the first half of 1994. The highest-paying jobs, particularly in manufacturing, will further decline in number as firms continue to downsize and even move out of the highly regulated California coastal region, he said.
“Many firms in California have recovered,” Schniepp said, “but the problem is, they’re not in California anymore.”
Service and retail jobs will probably show an increase, he said. “There’s been such a massive decline in spending that it’s just bound to come back soon,” Schniepp said.
Some businesses in Ventura have not survived the austere times. A woman who ran a family-owned air-conditioning business for more than 17 years was filing for unemployment benefits for the first time because she said her company could not survive the downturn in the economy.
“The economy doesn’t look good to me,” said the woman, who asked not to be named. “Of course, I have a different perspective than most.”
Schniepp said that when the recovery does come, in late 1994 or early 1995, it will be fueled by the national economic rebound already under way.
“It’ll be very slow and gradual,” he said. “It may be so slow that you may not even notice it.”
Ventura County had 359,400 working residents in November, an increase of 2,700 from the previous month and up 10,700 from November, 1992.
Many workers, however, found jobs outside the county. Ventura County had 2,500 fewer non-agricultural jobs this past November than in November, 1992, and only 1,000 more non-agricultural jobs than in October. However, because of unemployed workers giving up the job search, the civilian labor force decreased by 1,500 workers overall in November from October.
The federal government added 700 jobs locally in November, accounting for a good part of the county job increase. Retail stores also provided 600 jobs as the county headed into the peak holiday shopping season, and service jobs increased by 300. Transportation and public utilities also grew by 100 jobs.
On the down side, manufacturing lost 500 jobs, wholesale trade lost 100 and finance, insurance and real estate lost 100 jobs combined from October to November.
Agricultural employment fell by 2,200 from October to November. Still, agricultural jobs were up by 400 in November over the same month in 1992.
Kay Mendel, office manager at Brokaw Nursery in Saticoy, attributed the monthly drop to seasonal changes. “In agriculture, things slow down in the winter months,” she said. “People generally don’t plant, because there’s the danger of frost and heavy rains and wind, and the trees are vulnerable when first planted.”
Instead, she said, many farm laborers return home to Mexico between November and February, returning to Ventura County as the spring planting season gets under way.
