A LOOK AHEAD: Old troubles persist, new opportunities await : Bold Forecast for ‘94? It’ll Be 365 Days Long

By this time next year in Orange County, this much will be clear: traffic will be worse; two new faces will be found on the county’s Board of Supervisors; government still won’t have the wherewithal to adequately handle the homeless and confront crime; and the debate will continue to rage over welfare and health care reform.

Not exactly bold predictions, but pretty safe to say.

To many, 1994 will look a lot like 1993, with some minor adjustments for better or worse.

The economy still has a long way to go, but few are willing to predict how much better or worse it may get. The focus on school choice is likely to intensify, following the defeat of Proposition 174 last year, but is unlikely to be resolved. And somewhere, among all that freeway construction, lies a blueprint for improvement.

In politics, county Supervisors Thomas F. Riley and Harriett M. Wieder will say goodby after a collective 36 years in office. Rep. Robert K. Dornan (R-Garden Grove) wonders whether reelection or a radio talk show better fits into his future plans. And in November, there could be a three-way race for mayor in Anaheim.

In the weary world of transportation, dollar-juggling will keep the Interstate 5 widening on schedule, probably at the expense of other projects.

Environmentalists and builders will continue to clash over how much wetland and coastal sage scrub areas should be saved when development occurs. And development will definitely be occurring at three colleges--UC Irvine, Cal State Fullerton and Orange Coast College--as all will unveil some impressive new buildings this year.

Here’s a rundown on what is happening this year in the areas of medicine, county and city governments, the environment, transportation, higher and lower education, social services and politics.

The Environment

In many respects, 1994 may shape up as the year of habitat preservation.

The proposed development of Bolsa Chica--a 1,700-acre area fronting Pacific Coast Highway in Huntington Beach--is expected to take some major steps this year, but not without a concession to preserve the wetlands.

In a move opposed by many environmentalists, the Koll Real Estate Group is planning a 4,884-home development at the site which, the company says, would include large portions of restored wetland. Environmentalists want the Bolsa Chica wetlands restored or at least left alone.

A recommended compromise by the county includes more open space and less development. Whatever happens, any development is still at least a year away.

During the year, the county will be identifying specific “habitat areas” all over Orange County along with plans to manage them. While the plans were fueled by the federal requirement to save the endangered California gnatcatcher, they also will benefit such other rare species as the cactus wren, orange throated whiptail lizard and various plants.

Aiding in the effort is a sophisticated new computer system that, after three years of development, is expected to be fully implemented in 1994. Called the Wildlife Geographic Information System, the program will be able to map vegetation, slope, topography, water features and the actual location of major animal species in threatened open areas.

Health Care

Tougher economic times and mergers are in the offing for Orange County hospitals in 1994, and all health care providers will be struggling to fit into whatever health care plan is adopted by Congress, local health care leaders say.

Orange County, like the rest of Southern California, already has taken a leadership position in the move toward medical cost containment with a major shift over the last decade to prepaid managed care insurance programs, they say.

This year, the county’s huge Medi-Cal system will get ready to shift from a traditional fee-for-service program to prepaid managed care, which will begin in early 1995.

The board of directors and administrator of the new Medi-Cal program, called OPTIMA, will have a year to develop a medical care delivery system. It will be their job to contract with physician groups, hospitals, community clinics and other providers who will treat Medi-Cal patients for a pre-agreed monthly fee.

To make themselves attractive to OPTIMA and other contracting organizations, health care providers such as hospitals, doctors and home health care agencies, are expected to consolidate or form marketing alliances.

St. Joseph Health System, the parent organization for St. Joseph Hospital in Orange, recently said it is negotiating a possible acquisition of Mission Regional Hospital Medical Center in Mission Viejo, and still more hospital mergers are predicted.

“I think we will see a continued consolidation of health care providers and a lot of bridges built between organizations that were competitors in the past,” said Gordon Martin, president and chief executive officer of the Visiting Nurses Assn. of Orange County.

Social Services

With the fastest-growing caseload in the state and proposed federal reforms on the horizon, welfare-related issues will be the key concern for social services agencies in Orange County. “In the area of welfare reform we anticipate next year to be a year of major proposals from the President to the governor,” said Larry Leaman, director of the Orange County Social Services Agency. “A lot of times, neat-sounding ideas turn out to be nightmares when you try to implement them. “

Orange County welfare cases have increased 106% in the past five years. The increase has been attributed to a combination of aerospace layoffs, the long recession and an influx of immigrants.

About 45% of the caseload is a result of immigration and the most dramatic increase is in the area of child welfare, usually in the form of payments made to undocumented immigrants with children born in the United States. There are 9,000 such children in the county, social services workers say.

Meanwhile, officials will be seeking to expand the Greater Avenues for Independence (GAIN) program--a work program for people who receive Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC).

With the help of a state grant, officials expect to serve twice as many clients as last year. According to Leaman, the program placed 2,000 employees last year.

The GAIN program assesses the skills of welfare parents and helps them receive the training that they need to find jobs.

Lower Education

Though Proposition 174, the school voucher initiative, was overwhelmingly defeated statewide and in Orange County in November, educators expect the fallout of that election to dominate the debate in local school districts in the coming year.

Even as they voted against the initiative, Orange County residents voiced a desire for increased choice and more accountability in public schools. Now the challenge is to improve the schools and give parents more power over their children’s education before another voucher plan is introduced, teachers and administrators said.

Also high on the agenda is the question of school safety, but educators believe the programs they have in place--strict anti-gang dress codes, prevention programs and curricula and zero-tolerance policies for weapons possession--are the best tools to fight the rising violence among youth.

Proposition 174 “showed faith in public schools, in public education, but we have to respond by continuing to improve,” said John Dean, superintendent of the Orange County Department of Education. “We know that most people like their schools. Now we have to examine every aspect of our educational program to make sure we’re meeting the needs of all kinds of kids.”

Several districts plan to focus on vocational training and individualized programs for students who are not the most advanced academically.

Capistrano Unified, the sprawling South County district, will unveil a school-choice plan to allow parents to choose from a smorgasbord of educational options. At the elementary level, there will be a co-op school, a performing arts program, and magnet schools for math and science; each high school will have within it an “academy” in which students can learn about professions such as medicine or cooking.

Higher Education

Despite the recession, some major new buildings are scheduled to be completed during the new year at colleges and universities in Orange County.

UC Irvine expects its Science Library to open in May. The six-story, 131,000-square-foot library building cost $32 million and dominates a hill on the west side of UCI’s campus.

Also, in May, UCI plans to open its Engineering II structure. The 132,000-square-foot building, which cost $34 million, will have space for classes, research labs and offices.

Later this month, Cal State Fullerton will open two new major structures: the $26-million Science Laboratory Center and the $14.4-million University Hall.

In addition, Cal State Fullerton plans to break ground in February on a four-story addition to its existing library. Another major project scheduled to start sometime in 1994 is a $10-million upgrading of the university’s telecommunications systems.

Orange Coast College, a community college in Costa Mesa, is scheduled to open its $8.5-million Vocational Technology Building in May. The two-story, 78,000-square-foot building will be the largest on campus.

Rancho Santiago College’s campus in Santa Ana is scheduled to start construction on April 1 on a $13-million, 46,000-square-foot Computer High-Tech Center.

City Government

Bedeviled by dwindling finances and plagued with increasing gang problems, cities throughout the county are focusing on economic development and crime prevention as they enter 1994.

Most cities will be trying to broaden their revenue bases and climb out of a recession that has gripped local governments and forced significant cuts in personnel and services.

Anaheim officials, for example, hope to work with the Walt Disney Co. to bring a massive $3-billion Disneyland expansion project to the city that promises to inject not only Anaheim, but the entire county with thousands of jobs and other economic benefits.

Anaheim also is using redevelopment projects to revitalize blighted areas. Among other challenges facing the county’s second most populous city are: increasing the number of police officers, and working with the Los Angeles Rams to keep the team in the city.

In Santa Ana, officials say they will pay renewed attention to issues of overcrowding, crime and homelessness.

A new city jail and police headquarters are slated for the city next year, said Santa Ana Police Chief Paul M. Walters. Proposals for the jail--which would likely require a utility tax hike of 1% or more to fund--are scheduled to go before the City Council in February, he said.

Janet M. Huston with the League of California Cities said the nonprofit group has identified goals for cities for the next year, including the restructuring of government and attracting new businesses.

County Government

Orange County government faces a year of transition as two veteran supervisors prepare for retirement and a third fights to keep his gubernatorial appointment.

Supervisors Harriett M. Wieder and Thomas F. Riley will leave office and Supervisor William G. Steiner, appointed to fill the term of former Supervisor Don R. Roth, is girding for a possible challenge.

Wieder, the first woman to join the board, has been promoting the candidacy of Huntington Beach businesswoman Haydee Tillotson. Wieder appointed Tillotson to the Orange County Planning Commission, a position she resigned after only three months to devote more time to campaigning in the North and Central county.

While she has Wieder’s blessing, Tillotson will have plenty of competition. Huntington Beach City Councilman Jim Silva and Councilwoman Linda Moulton-Patterson also are in the race.

Riley, meanwhile, is strongly supporting state Sen. Marian Bergeson as successor to the sprawling South County district that he has represented since 1974.

As yet, no other candidates have stepped forward in South County, but San Juan Capistrano City Councilman Gary L. Hausdorfer has been considering a run, as well.

Already ensnarled in controversy over future conversion of El Toro Marine Corps Air Station, the board is expected to spend much of this election year grappling with yet another budget crisis.

In the past two years, Orange County officials have eliminated 1,800 positions. The personnel and service cuts have been required to offset the transfer of local property tax revenue to fund the California public school system.

Transportation

Somewhere, at some time, virtually every freeway in Orange County will experience traffic delays in 1994 due to construction. And that’s the good news.

The bad news is that some projects--not yet identified--may be postponed slightly in order to preserve the construction schedule for the financially strapped widening of the Santa Ana Freeway, a massive $1.9-billion face lift to Orange County’s true “Main Street.”

With some portions already finished, the northernmost segments won’t be completed at least until 2002.

And construction continues with the ongoing reconstruction of the junction of the San Diego and Santa Ana freeways, the infamous El Toro “Y.” When finished in mid-1996, the junction will become the world’s largest interchange--26 lanes wide at one point.

Construction also will start mid-year on car-pool lanes on I-5 between San Juan Capistrano and the “Y” and on the Riverside Freeway, including car-pool lanes and the state’s first privately operated toll lanes in the median.

Tollway officials hope to resolve all remaining legal disputes that have barred construction on sections of the San Joaquin Hills toll road, while environmentalists are counting on a federal judge to reject the $1.1-billion project’s environmental impact review as inadequate. A hearing is scheduled for this month. If ordered, redoing the environmental documentation could take a year.

Although the vast majority of commuters still will rely on the automobile, 1994 may mark a subtle shift toward mass transit.

In late March, two to three new MetroLink commuter trains per day will be added to the schedule between San Juan Capistrano and Los Angeles, where one train now makes a single round trip daily. That’s in addition to the nine Amtrak trains that already make round trips between San Diego and Los Angeles, with some stops in Orange County.

Politics

Orange County politics has developed the same reputation as Southern California’s weather: it’s predictable. Each election year, the chances that Republican incumbents will hold onto their offices are at least as certain as those of blue skies over the Rose Parade.

And this year is no different.

Some of the 17 state and federal districts that represent Orange County probably will see spirited contests for the June primary and November general election. But the incumbents seeking reelection go into the year once again as favorites to win.

The exception to the rule in Orange County is likely to be the central core surrounding Santa Ana and Garden Grove. It is a predominantly Democratic area that usually votes Republican.

In this election, the area is even more volatile because Assemblyman Tom Umberg (D-Garden Grove) and Republican Rep. Dornan have both indicated they may not seek reelection (Umberg is exploring a statewide campaign to unseat Republican Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren and Dornan is considering a challenge to Democratic U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein or a 1996 bid for the White House).

A host of ambitious political climbers already have expressed interest in both seats, including some influential leaders who could portend a heated campaign if the seats are vacant.

Santa Ana Mayor Dan Young said he is considering both seats. County Supervisor Roger R. Stanton has expressed interest in the congressional office, as has Dornan’s former chief of staff, Brian Bennett. Democrat Mike Farber, a San Diego County businessman, already has opened a campaign headquarters to challenge Dornan.

If the incumbents seek reelection, however, most observers believe they would be tough to beat. Both promised to announce their decisions early in the new year.

Times staff writers Leslie Berkman, Bill Billiter, Alicia DiRado, Tammerlin Drummond, David Haldane, Kevin Johnson, Matt Lait, Dave Lesher, Jeffrey A. Perlman and Jodi Wilgoren contributed to this report.