Earthquake: The Long Road Back : Wilson Adviser Predicts Swift Economic Recovery : Impact: Economist says overall effect of the quake on the recession-bound state will be a ‘minor event.’ Two business leaders disagree.

The chief economic adviser to Gov. Pete Wilson forecast Friday that the California economy will recover so swiftly from the San Fernando Valley earthquake that its overall effect will be only a “minor event.”

Economist Phillip Romero made the upbeat assessment at a news conference called by Wilson Administration officials and business leaders to promote California as a good place to visit and do business.

“I think that confidence will come back quickly and this will, within a year, be a minor event in the context of California’s overall economy,” Romero said.

The news conference themes closely reflected those of Wilson’s campaign as the governor seeks to portray recession-weary California as re-emerging as a serious competitor in the global marketplace.

Julie Meier Wright, secretary of the state Trade and Commerce Agency, said Administration officials did not want to sugarcoat the economic severity of the 6.6 temblor but wanted to assure business investors that steps were being taken to mitigate them.

She said the California Highway Patrol is telling out-of-state tourists that most of Southern California remains a good place to visit and there might be “lighter than usual crowds at well-known locations.”

Romero said he based his recovery forecast, in part, on the ability of local economies to bounce back swiftly from such disastrous events as the Loma Prieta earthquake in 1989 and the wildfires that savaged parts of Los Angeles only a couple of months ago.

*

He also said the proposed swift expenditure of vast funds on reconstruction projects typically brings about 15% to 25% “more economic bang for the buck than dollars spent on consumption. . . . Those dollars will stimulate the economy substantially faster than if they were spent for normal purposes.”

He noted that the Los Angeles area economy represents half the state’s annual $800-billion production of goods and services a year. “There are several hundred Northridges in the giant L.A. economy,” he said.

But William Campbell, president of the California Manufacturers Assn., and Kirk West, president of the California Chamber of Commerce, refused to endorse Romero’s characterization of the potential economic impact as a “minor event.”

“I would not use that term,” said West, who flanked Romero at the news conference. West and Campbell did express confidence that the economy would recover swiftly.