Students’ Slayings Another Harsh Blow to L.A.’s Image : Tourism: After riots, fires and the quake, more visitors from Japan and other countries are expected to shy away.

After years of economic woes, unrest and other calamities, January’s powerful earthquake rocked the Los Angeles region’s vital tourism industry just as it was poised for recovery.

Some hotels suffered damage. Phone inquiries from prospective visitors dropped, and tourists canceled room reservations.

By a twist of fate, the quake’s impact was not immediately felt. Hotel rooms were filled with disaster workers and residents displaced by the Northridge temblor, raising occupancy rates in January and February above those for the same period last year.

But a predicted decline in hotel bookings took hold this month, and a strong aftershock rekindled visitor concerns about earthquakes.

“We don’t need any more bad news,” tourism consultant Bruce Baltin said. “We need good news for the tourism industry to recover economically.”

Instead of getting a boost, the region’s second-biggest industry was dealt yet another damaging blow within days. Two college students from Japan were slain Friday during a carjacking, setting off an international furor.

“There is no question . . . this is going to hurt,” Baltin said this week. “There’s no way to tell how much and how long.”

Japanese tourists are the largest single bloc of overseas visitors to Los Angeles.

Almost one out of six foreign tourists comes from Japan. And with a powerful yen, the Japanese spend six times more than the average tourist from the United States, pumping at least $480 million a year into the local economy.

The 500,000 Japanese visitors who come each year are “an enormously valuable market,” said Michael Collins, senior vice president of the Los Angeles Convention and Visitors Bureau.

Collins said intense media coverage surrounding the tragic shooting of students Takuma Ito and Go Matsuura, both 19, outside a San Pedro supermarket Friday night could keep many Japanese tourists away. “Could they drop 10%?” he said. “Yes.”

In the past few years, Japanese television viewers, like those elsewhere, have seen pictures of the 1992 riots, the 1993 fires and the 1994 earthquake, said Ken Kohno, Los Angeles bureau chief for NHK Japan Broadcasting.

Still, the deaths of Ito and Matsuura struck deeply in Japan, where earthquakes are an ever-present danger but random violence is relatively rare and guns are strictly controlled. “All of this makes L.A. (seem) very dangerous and not a good place to go,” Kohno said.

But, Collins said, the crime should be viewed as “a ghastly exception” to the experience of typical Los Angeles visitors who are drawn to the city’s many attractions, from Hollywood to Venice.

On the brick-lined streets of Little Tokyo, the deaths of the students have reinforced the concerns of some Japanese tourists about visiting Los Angeles.

Idehara Kazue, a college student from Osaka, said through a translator that she had seen “so many beautiful places” on her visit here, but that the shootings had heightened her concerns for her safety.

“They always say it is dangerous to walk alone on the street in Los Angeles, so that makes me worried,” Kazue said as she and two friends stood outside an upscale gift shop.

Virtually all of the customers who buy expensive leather handbags, designer clothes and towels, perfume, T-shirts and American gear are Japanese tourists, said gift shop salesman Rajesh Raja.

“This is our bread and butter,” Raja said. “If this kind of incident takes place, more and more we will be affected, no doubt about it. The Japanese are very delicate people. . . . They are guests. If they don’t feel safe, they will not come here.”

Officials had hoped that tourism dollars, by creating jobs and generating hotel and sales taxes, would help fuel the region’s recovery from prolonged recession.

After three tough years, the industry had been anticipating a better year. The newly expanded Downtown convention center was opening and the city seemed on the verge of a recovery in visitor traffic.

“Before the quake, we had strong evidence this was going to be a good year,” Collins said.

After images of death and destruction were broadcast worldwide, forecasts of a gradual improvement in visitor spending were replaced by more conservative projections.

Shortly after the quake, Baltin, the tourism consultant, predicted that the temblor would cost Los Angeles County’s $8.2-billion visitor industry $308 million this year--a 3% drop from earlier forecasts.

“The impact isn’t huge,” he said, “but it’s definitely there and will be felt probably through the summer.”

Baltin told the Convention and Visitors Bureau that he expects “the impact to be felt, beginning slightly in March, building through June and then tapering off through the summer and fall.”

Although local visitor attractions and virtually all major hotels were back in business soon after the quake, impressions linger about the effects on the region. And the 5.3-magnitude aftershock March 20 put quake-rattled Los Angeles on the national news again.

Baltin estimates that lower-than-expected visitor spending could translate into 9,200 fewer tourist industry jobs this year.

More than 200 employees of the Sheraton Universal Hotel in Universal City already know that firsthand. Housekeepers, restaurant workers, front desk assistants, valet parking attendants and others have been out of work without pay since the quake struck Jan. 17.

The 20-story high-rise across the street from Universal Studios is one of two large hotels in the region that have yet to reopen after the quake.

Sheraton Universal General Manager David P. Cocks said engineers found no structural damage to the building but there was extensive cosmetic damage to virtually all guest rooms.

Hotel officials decided to complete a previously planned remodeling of the hotel’s 444 guest rooms at the same time that quake repairs are made, Cocks said. The hotel now plans to reopen May 1 in time to host visitors to this summer’s World Cup soccer competition.

In the meantime, Jennifer Skurnik, staff director of the Hotel and Restaurant Employees Union, said it has been a very difficult time for Sheraton Universal workers forced into the ranks of the unemployed.

“People will get through this period with a lot of hardship,” Skurnik said. “They spent their savings.”

The other major hotel to remain closed is the Radisson Valley Center Hotel near the intersection of the Ventura and San Diego Freeways in Sherman Oaks. City inspectors red-tagged the 13-story building as unsafe after assessing the structural damage.

“We’re under repair,” General Manager Wes Calverley said. “We’re taking advantage of the downtime to completely remodel and renovate the facility.”

About 80 employees have been laid off, but at least 20 workers have been placed in jobs at other hotels, he said. The hotel now is scheduled to reopen July 1.

Quake damage and related problems with power and water supplies forced the temporary closure of a number of hotels from Woodland Hills to Santa Monica. The venerable Biltmore Hotel in Downtown Los Angeles suffered some minor damage but remained open.

Major tourist attractions, including Universal Studios and the adjacent CityWalk restaurant and retail area, reopened quickly after the quake. One attraction, a ride that simulates the effects of a major earthquake, was closed for several weeks out of deference to the community, Universal Studios spokesman Jim Yeager said.

Universal, the county’s biggest tourist destination is proceeding with plans to open new attractions this spring and summer and is looking forward to big crowds. Attendance has slowly started to pick up, but “we are not where we would have been had there not been a quake,” Yeager said.

Farther removed from the epicenter, Disneyland remained in operation.

Disneyland spokesman John McClintock said the theme park experienced a drop in attendance for a couple of weeks immediately after the quake but is “already beginning to see what we believe is a strong rebound.” Disney officials are optimistic that the quake’s impact will not carry through the summer.

The only major visitor facility still closed is the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, which suffered extensive structural damage.

The temblor created a temporary opportunity for hotels, particularly those closest to the most heavily damaged areas.

The flood of insurance adjusters, Federal Emergency Management Agency personnel, other government employees, Red Cross representatives and residents forced from their homes pushed hotel occupancy in the San Fernando Valley to 94% in February, compared with 54% a year earlier, Baltin said.

But guests who were driven to hotels by the quake spent less money on food, beverages and entertainment than tourists do, Baltin said.

Throughout Los Angeles County, hotel occupancy was up 4 percentage points, to 66.2%, in January and February compared with the same period last year. Several large conventions in February pushed occupancy rates at Downtown Los Angeles hotels to their highest level in four years.

But because of the quake, forecasts of a small increase in the county’s hotel occupancy rate this year have been scaled back. Baltin, senior vice president of PKF Consulting, said he expects a rate of 62%--about the same level as last year.

Between 1987 and 1993, a building boom increased the number of hotel rooms in Los Angeles County by an average of 3.3% per year, about three times faster than the increase in the demand for rooms, Baltin said. The result has been a downward slide in the overall hotel occupancy rate.

To attract visitors, tourism officials have given travel writers and convention and meeting planners the message that Los Angeles is open for business, the freeway system is functioning and major tourist attractions are welcoming visitors.

Collins said he hopes the area will receive special federal assistance to pay for a short-term advertising campaign to influence tourists’ summer travel plans.

Tourism officials also are preparing a plan to pool the marketing efforts of Los Angeles and surrounding cities.

Collins said a major advertising campaign would give the area a chance to show the world: “We are not selling damaged goods here.”

* BILLBOARDS COMING DOWN: Police union will remove controversial ads to get contract talks resumed. B1

Spare Rooms

Hotel occupancy in Los Angeles County has been on a downward slide for seven years. A building boom increased the number of hotel rooms in Los Angeles County by an average of 3.3% a year from 1987 to 1993, while the number of occupied rooms grew by only 1% annually, causing a downward slide in the overall hotel occupancy rate.

OCCUPANCY RATE ‘87: 71.3% ‘88: 71.0% ‘89: 70.0% ‘90: 67.0% ‘91: 63.6% ‘92: 61.1% ‘93: 61.9% ‘94: 62.0%* * Forecast

Average daily rooms available Average daily rooms occupied 1987 75,342 53,719 1988 78,082 55,438 1989 82,107 57,475 1990 86,021 57,634 1991 87,714 55,786 1992 89,973 54,973 1993 90,071 56,325

Source: PKF Consulting