THE TIMES POLL : Californians’ Approval of Clinton at High Point

Despite the swirl of controversy over the Whitewater land deal and concerns over his health care plan, President Clinton now has the highest approval ratings in California seen in any Los Angeles Times poll since his inauguration 14 months ago.

Fifty-eight percent of Californians said they favor the way Clinton is handling his job, a 7-point jump from October. And a rise in the positive endorsements carried across the board: Among registered voters, Clinton’s popularity rose 10 points to 59%. Even 36% of Republicans said they approve of his handling of the presidency, up from 21% in October.

The increase comes as the President and, by extension, his Administration, are enmeshed in debate over the First Family’s long-ago Arkansas land investments and an independent counsel’s probe of the deals and related matters. The poll does show that, regardless of the high ratings, Californians have not ignored the months-long controversy.

The survey indicates that Clinton’s ratings would probably be higher without Whitewater, since 25% say they look less favorably on him because of it. Further, the public is clearly confused about the issue and it still has the potential of turning people against the President.

About a quarter of Californians said they believe the Clintons have engaged in wrongdoing, another quarter say they have not, and the remaining half say they don’t know enough to form an opinion. Those who say they have not come to a conclusion about Whitewater form a bulwark of Clinton support, favoring him 56%-33%.

“We’re talking about something with the possibility to unfold,” said John Brennan, director of the Times Poll.

Clinton’s jump in the ratings occurred not only under the cloud of concern over Whitewater but also amid a weakening of statewide support for his health care plan, the poll showed.

Only 42% said they approve of the health care plan on which Clinton is planning to spend much of his political capital this year--and that is down from 52% support last October. The percentage of people who disapprove of the Clinton plan has risen, to 38% this month from 32% in October.

The Times Poll surveyed 1,608 adults between March 26 and 29. Included were 1,211 registered voters. The overall sampling error is 3 points in either direction; for Democrats and Republicans it is 5 points in either direction.

Last October’s Times poll was taken well before the explosion of publicity about the Whitewater land dealings. Because there have been no California polls in the interim, Brennan said, it is impossible to determine whether the current 58% approval rating is Clinton’s high-water mark or whether it represents a lessening of prior, unpolled support.

Clinton is clearly demonstrating strength in the nation’s most important electoral state. The President apparently has benefited from his close attention to California, which he has visited 10 times since his January, 1993, inauguration.

Clinton and other Administration officials have been particularly visible since last January’s Northridge earthquake, and that level of attention is probably providing continued political benefits, Brennan said. A Times poll of Los Angeles County residents taken the weekend after the quake showed that 73% supported Clinton’s handling of the disaster. In the most recent poll, his overall job rating in Los Angeles County was a healthy 62%. Clinton is also likely to be benefiting from increased confidence about the economy. The poll showed that Californians are now more positive about the state’s economy and their own pocketbooks than they have been in years.

At the same time, Californians have shifted their views about which political party is best suited to solve the state’s problems. Although that judgment went by a paper-thin margin to the Republicans in October--32% to 30%--the advantage now rests with Clinton’s party, 37% to 31%.

Whatever their particular reasons, almost all voter groups expressed more support for Clinton’s handling of the presidency than they had previously. One exception was rural residents, whose 56%-34% positive job approval in October dropped to a 43%-53% negative rating in March.

Among Clinton’s core constituencies--Democrats, liberals, African Americans, moderates and women--his approval ratings were consistently better. Even those not naturally inclined to look kindly on Clinton were more supportive of him than they had been in October: Thirty-seven percent of conservatives, for example, favored Clinton, up from 29% last fall.

In a hypothetical presidential match-up conducted by the poll, Clinton beat out two other prospective candidates by about the same margin as he won California by in 1992. Asked whether they would support Clinton, independent Ross Perot or Republican Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas in a 1996 presidential election, 50% of registered voters said Clinton, 30% sided with Dole and 16% with Perot. In 1992, Clinton won 46% of the California vote, with 32.6% going to Republican George Bush and 20.6% to Perot.

The strong job approval ratings did not translate into concurrent support of Clinton’s explanations about Whitewater.

The President has said that neither he nor his wife, Hillary Rodham Clinton, did anything wrong when they invested in the Whitewater development in the late 1970s. In the poll, 26% said they believed there was no wrongdoing by the Clintons, about the same as the 27% who believed there has been wrongdoing. Of the latter, only 15% characterized the wrongdoing as “serious.” The bulk of the respondents, 47%, said they did not know.

Despite the uncertainty obvious in those answers, residents were more clear-cut in describing how the Clintons’ involvement in the real estate deal affected their feelings about the President. Only 4% felt more favorable about him while 25% felt less favorable, a net loss to Clinton. Sixty-nine percent said Whitewater had no impact on their feelings about Clinton.

Most people said that the Clintons are cooperating adequately with investigations into the Whitewater matter--61% of all Californians believe so, as well as 63% of registered voters.

The California results on the President’s health care proposals represent a drop of support--and a concurrent hike in disapproval--for the high-priority plan.

Of the 42% who approved of the plan, only 16% described their support as strong. Of the 38% who disapproved of the plan, 27% described their opposition as strong.

The numbers are consistent with a new national poll, which showed support for the Clinton health care plan at an all-time low of 42%.

THE TIMES POLL: State Thinks Highly of Clinton

Despite the drag of Whitewater and growing doubts about his health care plan, President Clinton’s approval score among Californians is the highest measured by the Times Poll since his inauguration.

* Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job?

MARCH ’94 OCT. ’93 SEPT. ’93 MARCH ’93 Approve 58% 51% 50% 51% Disapprove 35% 39% 44% 29% Don’t know 7% 10% 6% 20%

*

Do you approve of Clinton’s health care reform proposals?

March, 1994 Approve: 42% Disapprove: 38% Don’t know: 20% October, 1993 Approve: 52% Disapprove: 32% Don’t know: 16% *

Are the Clintons cooperating adequately with the Whitewater investigation? Yes: 61% No: 26% Don’t know: 13% *

Have the Clintons engaged in wrongdoing in Whitewater? Yes: 27% No: 26% Don’t know: 47% SOURCE: Los Angeles Times Poll

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,608 California adults, including 1,211 registered voters, by telephone from March 26 through 29. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. Interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age and education. The margin of sampling error for the total and registered voter samples is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain other sub-groups the error margin may vary. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.