O.C. Agencies Fear Impact of ‘3 Strikes’ Law

The new “three strikes” law aimed at locking up career criminals could place a heavy toll on nearly every law enforcement and social service agency in Orange County, according to a report released Wednesday.

A worst-case scenario could bring the civil court system to a virtual standstill to make way for more criminal trials, cause more severe jail crowding, place increased demands on probation officers and trigger an expansion of the local welfare rolls, officials said.

One of the hidden consequences of the legislation is expected to be a growing dependence on social programs should criminal cases begin to overwhelm the court system, county Social Services Director Larry Leaman said.

In many cases, convictions result in families seeking welfare support or placing children in government custody, according to the report by the Orange County Administrative Office. Any noticeable increase in the conviction rate and length of time served under the new law could cause a dramatic growth in government expenses to maintain those services.

“This is not just a hysterical reaction,” Leaman said. “These decisions, quite often, set off a series of domino actions that we don’t expect or that are not immediately visible.”

The full brunt of the law will not be felt for several months, but county officials, judges and attorneys agree that local governments should be prepared to dedicate more money to public safety with no guarantees that the investment will bring a decrease in crime.

“This thing could be damn bad,” Board of Supervisors Chairman Thomas F. Riley said, describing the financial implications of the law.

One of Riley’s concerns is that the new law would exacerbate crowded conditions in the county jail system and lead to more early releases of those charged with lesser offenses such as drunk driving.

The Orange County jail system population, already governed by a federal court order, is expected to rise as more career-criminal cases are filed and brought to trial, the report stated.

For the county, the potential cost increases come at a difficult time as local government revenues continue to shrink because of higher unemployment rates, increased municipal incorporations and the lagging state economy.

Signed into law last month by Gov. Pete Wilson, the “three-strikes” legislation has created a flurry of concerns, questions and criticisms.

On Wednesday, Wilson set out to defend the law, saying that it would actually save potential crime victims at least $140,000 for every inmate incarcerated each year.

“Critics point to the costs of locking up these violent thugs and argue that California cannot afford it,” Wilson said in a written statement. “I say again, we can’t afford not to.”

Wilson said the potential savings were only conservative estimates, contending that each year that a repeat felon is taken off the streets, between 15 and 187 crimes are prevented.

Aside from the debate over costs, perhaps the only certain result of the “three-strikes” legislation will be legal challenges, authorities say.

The law mandates a minimum sentence of 25 years to life for third-time felons who have racked up two prior convictions for crimes, ranging from residential burglary to murder. The law also calls for more prison time for those with one or more “strikes”--including juvenile convictions.

The state Department of Corrections has predicted it must build 20 additional prisons under the new law--a prison costs about $500 million to build--and spend $2 billion a year to operate them.

In Orange County, authorities anticipate that adult trials will increase by 30%, and juvenile court trials may increase by as much as 50%, possibly requiring additional staff in most criminal justice agencies, the report said.

“If there’s nothing to lose by going to trial, it’s not really a gamble,” Orange County Public Defender Ronald Y. Butler said. “If you go to trial you’re giving a client the opportunity of an acquittal or a (conviction on a) lesser charge. There’s just no reason not to go to trial.”

So far, Orange County prosecutors have filed only two cases under the new legislation and are carefully reviewing each eligible case, said Chief Assistant Dist. Atty. Maurice Evans.

“At this point, we’re taking a kind of a wait-and-see attitude,” Evans said, adding that it is not yet clear how often the new law will be used. “It’s just too early to tell.”

In one instance, prosecutors believed the penalty did not fit the suspected crime and they moved to dismiss the “three-strikes” enhancement against a repeat felon charged with possessing a small amount of heroin, Evans said. Prosecutors may decide in rare cases to exercise discretion in declining to file charges, he said.

As it is written, however, the law does not appear to give prosecutors much room for interpretation, and Butler said disagreements about the new legislation will linger until the courts rule on expected challenges to the law.

Superior Court Judge James L. Smith, the county’s presiding judge, has said he does not see a looming crisis, believing that the courts can absorb the impact. However, Smith said he is also prepared to use temporary judges or halt civil cases to give criminal trials priority if necessary.

It’s only a matter of time before the court system “gets clogged up,” said Eileen Walsh, the county’s director of finance and insurance.

“It’s not a huge problem right now,” Walsh said. “No one is asking for additional resources. We’ll be better able to get a handle on things in the next year.”

Many say the effect of the law will be determined by how frequently prosecutors proceed on the charge. But Evans and other court officials say the impact will also depend on how defense attorneys respond to the new cases.

Defense attorneys have criticized the law as being too broad, unfairly counting juvenile convictions as “strikes.” Opponents also say the law strips judges of their discretion.

On the other side, supporters hail the legislation as an important step in sweeping the streets of violent repeat offenders.

Even those county and law enforcement officials who are generally supportive of the legislation express concern that little consideration was given to the law’s ultimate effect on the social service system.

But local authorities are especially concerned about the law’s effect on the local jail population.

“I know right now the law will benefit us,” Riley said. “But tomorrow we may not have any more money. Emotions on these kinds of things tend to carry a great deal of weight, but there is not a lot of attention to how much it’s going to cost down the road. I just don’t know how this will translate in Orange County right now.”

Despite his worries, Riley said he supports the legislation and believes the potential benefits should be worth the costs.

Orange County Marshal Michael S. Carona said it would be at least six months before local officials could begin assessing the costs of the new criminal penalties.

“This is going to be a tough one,” said Carona, whose force of more than 120 officers provides security for the Orange County court system. “We just don’t know yet, but we have to prepared.”

Part of that preparation could involve the shift of about 30 deputy marshals from civil court duty to the criminal courts, should the courts become loaded with “three-strikes” cases.

Carona said that shift alone could cost the county nearly $1 million in increased salaries and could expose officers and prisoners to more violent conditions in crowded courthouse holding cells.