THE TIMES POLL : Enthusiasm for Clinton’s Health Reform Is Waning

As critical decisions approach on President Clinton’s top domestic priorities, Americans are cooling on his agenda for health care reform, enthusiastic about elements of his emerging welfare reform proposal and divided over how best to fight crime, a Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

In an unmistakable sign of waning enthusiasm for health care reform, two-thirds of those polled said that they would not be angry if Congress cannot pass a comprehensive plan this year. By contrast, those surveyed said they want Congress and the President to put top priority on anti-crime legislation. But they were divided along ideological, partisan and racial lines over whether the best way to fight crime is tougher punishment or more programs of prevention.

Those polled placed less priority on reforming welfare, but showed overwhelming agreement that work requirements and measures to discourage out-of-wedlock births should be central elements of any reform plan.

On another issue, even as Clinton called Wednesday for wider airstrikes to deter Bosnian Serb attacks in Bosnia, the poll showed growing public acceptance for such measures. In the survey, which was completed before Clinton’s remarks, 46% said that they support U.S. airstrikes as part of an overall NATO effort to “repel Serbian and Bosnian Serb forces . . . besieging the Muslim population of Bosnia.”

In the poll, Clinton’s overall political standing remains tentative, with his job approval essentially unchanged at 54% since January and the percentage of people who believe there was “wrongdoing” in the Whitewater controversy rising to 30%--more than double the figure earlier this year.

But half of those surveyed still said that they don’t know enough about the Whitewater matter to render a judgment, and nearly two-thirds said the President and his wife, Hillary Rodham Clinton, are cooperating sufficiently with the investigation.

Moreover, the poll finds little evidence of the voter backlash Republicans predicted when the tax hikes were approved last summer. The survey, which began just one day after the tax-filing deadline of April 15, found that one-third of Americans believed their taxes went up this year, but only about one-third of that group blamed Clinton for the hike.

In fact, the Treasury Department estimates that about 1.2% of all taxpayers saw an income tax increase this year, 3.2% if higher Social Security taxes are included.

The Times Poll, supervised by John Brennan, interviewed 1,682 adults from April 16 through April 19; it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

Overall, the poll shows Clinton receiving positive, but lukewarm, grades for his performance. Of those polled, 54% approve of Clinton’s overall job performance and 39% disapprove, a showing virtually identical to figures in December and January. Approval and disapproval of his handling of the economy was 47% to 41%--also virtually unchanged from January.

Perhaps reflecting uneasiness over the turmoil in Bosnia, however, Clinton’s approval rating on foreign affairs has dropped. In January, 51% of Americans approved of his management of foreign affairs; but in the new survey, only 43% approve--with 46% giving him failing grades.

Still on almost all major issues, from welfare reform to crime to health care and the economy, a plurality of those surveyed believe Clinton would do a better job than congressional Republicans.

For Clinton, it may have been a victory of sorts merely to avoid a drop in his approval rating since the last survey: He has held his ground despite growing concern over the Whitewater land deal.

Since the last poll in January, the percentage of Americans who believe the Clintons engaged in “serious” wrongdoing in the Whitewater matter rose from 7% to 17%, with the percentage that perceived any wrongdoing jumping from 13% to 30%. Twenty-eight percent said Whitewater had made them look less favorably on Clinton (only 6% said it had made them more favorable); 32% said the controversy had diminished their assessment of Hillary Clinton, while only 4% said they now thought better of her.

Her favorable rating has slipped to 44% positive and 34% negative, down noticeably from 56%-25% in January; the decline has been sharper among women than men.

Still, only one in four of those interviewed said the investigation into Whitewater hasn’t gone far enough, with 37% calling the inquiry adequate, and one-third saying it has gone too far. Three in five said Clinton has the honesty they expect in a President, essentially unchanged since January. And when asked whether Clinton or Republicans in Congress exhibited higher standards of integrity, those polled picked Clinton, 42% to 28%.

In the new poll, Americans expressed more optimism about the economy than at any point since 1991, with fully 44% saying the recession is over.

Yet despite the increasing economic optimism, respondents were notably more pessimistic about the country’s overall direction, an unusual disjunction in attitudes. In the survey, 64% said the country was off on the wrong track, the highest figure since last June. Just 28% said the country is moving in the right direction, a marked drop from the nearly 40% who expressed satisfaction in polls last winter and fall.

Dissatisfaction with the country’s direction tends to be particularly strong among those least satisfied with Congress and Washington. As if tracking a storm surging toward land, the poll maps what appears to be a gathering hurricane of discontent about conditions in Washington.

Just one of every 10 Americans say Washington is making a great deal or a lot of progress toward “solving the major problems facing this country.” And 10% of those polled also expressed a lot of confidence in Congress. Fifteen percent said government can be trusted most of the time “to do what is right.” These numbers rank among the lowest in Times polls over the last three years.

These imposing measures of dissatisfaction with government are proving a significant hurdle for Clinton’s health care reform proposal, which is moving toward mark-up in congressional committees over the next few weeks.

Several individual elements of Clinton’s proposal remain popular, with almost two-thirds of those surveyed agreeing that universal coverage should be a component of any health care bill. But support for his overall plan continues to slip, and the public appears leery of giving government too large a role in managing the health care system, as critics maintain Clinton’s blueprint would do.

Given the most extreme choice, just 21% of those polled say government should run the system “without private insurance companies,” while more than 70% say they want to keep private firms involved.

Americans are ambivalent about imposing price controls on health insurance premiums and medical services to keep down costs. Asked if they would prefer price controls “even if that means limiting health services for the average person,” or would prefer prices set by the free market “even if that means higher costs for the average person,” those polled split 42% for government, 44% for the market.

Americans overwhelmingly support raising taxes on cigarettes to help pay for the health care plan. But the poll found substantial concern about another proposed funding source: a government mandate on employers to provide health insurance for their workers.

Asked if they would support an employer mandate to fund “universal health coverage for all Americans even if that might cost jobs,” just one in six Americans backed the idea; another 40% said they would prefer a broad-based tax to pay for universal coverage. One-third of those surveyed said they would prefer to postpone universal coverage rather than accept either of those funding options.

Indeed, one of the survey’s clearest messages is slackening enthusiasm for the entire enterprise of health care reform. Overall approval of Clinton’s reform plan continues to slip: Americans now back it by a 43%-34% margin, down slightly from January and more substantially from December.

Thirty-two percent of those surveyed say they will be angry if Congress fails to pass health reform this year; by contrast, 67% say they would not be angry.

Just as strikingly, only about one in five said they expected any reform to improve their own health care coverage, while an equal number said it would worsen their care, and about half said it would mean no change in their own lives.

Those numbers are essentially unchanged since June--three months before Clinton introduced his plan--despite millions of dollars poured into television advertising by the plan’s proponents and opponents, dozens of appearances by the President and First Lady to plump up their plan and the counterstrikes from Republican critics.

For legislators looking for guidance on what to do next, the poll offers mostly a picture of confusion: Just 5% say Congress should pass Clinton’s plan with no changes, 39% with minor changes and 14% with major changes. Another 15% say Congress should pass another plan, 10% say it should pass no plan and 16% say they don’t know.

In any case, Americans most often cite crime, rather than the economy or health care, as the nation’s most pressing problem, the poll found.

Last fall, the Senate approved sweeping anti-crime legislation centered on toughening sentences, building more prisons and helping cities hire 100,000 additional police officers. This week, the House is completing action on a competing crime bill that places relatively more emphasis on providing job training, drug treatment, educational services and other programs aimed at preventing crime.

By a thin 47%-44% margin, those surveyed would rather emphasize prevention than punishment. But that narrow divide masked wide divisions. Clear majorities of Democrats, Clinton voters, Latinos and blacks preferred prevention; but Perot voters, Republicans, the affluent and whites leaned toward punishment.

Yet most Americans seem willing to try ideas from all sides of the spectrum. When asked which proposals they believed would be most effective in reducing crime, those surveyed put at the top of the list two ideas favored by right and left: mandatory life imprisonment for three-time convicted felons and more money for youth recreation and job training programs. A proposal to add 100,000 police officers nationwide, perhaps Clinton’s top priority in the bill, drew relatively less enthusiasm.

Even more than on crime, the poll found striking consensus for a broad range of welfare reform ideas that the Administration is considering.

That agreement begins with overwhelming rejection of the existing system: fully eight in 10 of those polled say welfare encourages people to stay dependent, while just 11% say it offers poor people a second chance. Two-thirds of those polled say poor young women frequently have babies so that they can collect welfare checks. On both of those measures, blacks are as likely as whites to accept the negative characterizations.

Consensus also marks the public’s ranking of the goals for welfare reform: almost three-fourths say the top priority should be to move welfare recipients into the work force, compared with 17% who cite reducing illegitimate births and 6% who want to cut costs.

Even the means of mandating work attracts consensus: fully 69% of those surveyed support Clinton’s idea of requiring welfare recipients to work after two years on the rolls, and providing public employment for those who cannot find private sector jobs--even when told that such a plan could cost as much as $50 billion over the next 10 years, as the Administration has estimated.

Roughly two-thirds of those polled support at least one of two other proposals that the Administration is considering to discourage out-of-wedlock births: requiring young women who receive welfare to live with their parents or another responsible adult, and denying additional benefits to women who have more children while already on the rolls.

In contrast to the widespread agreement on work programs, that proposal to deny benefits could become a racially tinged flashpoint. Over two-thirds of whites, and a majority of Latinos support it, but blacks narrowly reject the idea.

Racial divisions also interlace reactions to a proposal to pay for welfare reform by denying social welfare benefits to legal immigrants who are not yet citizens: whites like the idea, but majorities of blacks and Latinos reject it.

THE TIMES POLL: Pressing the Issues

Bill of Approval

More Americans feel President Clinton has a higher standard of honesty and integrity than think that about congressional Republicans. Clinton: 42% Republicans: 28% Both/Neither: 19% Don’t know: 11% *

Who do you think can do a better job:

On the On On On On problem of welfare handling the handling crime reform economy the deficit health care Clinton 36% 42% 40% 35% 50% Republicans 29% 33% 36% 36% 27% Both/Neither 25% 17% 18% 20% 17% Don’t know 10% 8% 6% 9% 6%

*

Topping the list

Americans put crime legislation ahead of health care, welfare or campaign finance reform. Pass anti-crime bill: 35% Reform health care system: 30% Reform welfare system: 22% Reform campaign financing laws: 6% Other: 3% Don’t know: 4% *

Curbing crime

What Americans feel are the most effective proposals for combatting crime. Requiring mandatory life sentences for 3-time felons: 22% Youth crime prevention programs: 21% Expanding the death penalty: 17% Adding 100,000 more cops: 13% Trying some 13 and 14 year olds as adults: 9% Banning assault weapons: 7% Drug treatment programs for criminals: 6% More money for state prisons: 3% Don’t know: 2% *

Health care for everyone

Two-thirds of Americans support requiring universal health care coverage in this country.

What Americans are willing to give up in a health care reform plan. Choice of doctor: 33% Mental health coverage: 18% Universal coverage: 13% Prescription drugs for elderly: 11% Long-term care for elderly: 6% Catastrophic illness: 2% Won’t give up any of these things: 10% Don’t know: 7% *

How they would pay for universal coverage. Broad-based tax: 40% Postpone universal: 34% Get employers to pay**: 17% Don’t know: 8% Other: 1% *

Would you favor or oppose comprehensive welfare reform, even if it costs $50 billion? Favor, worth $50-billion cost: 69% Favor, not worth $50-billion cost: 22% Oppose: 7% Don’t know: 2% *

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

The Times Poll interviewed 1,682 adults nationwide, by telephone, from April 16 through 19. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. Interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, and occupation. Selected questions were asked to a half sample of approximately 840 respondents. The margin of sampling error on the full sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for half-sampled questions it is 4 points. For certain sub-groups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.