A Day When One Vote Will Really Count

This is “show-me” day in the Capitol. It’s the day little-known Assemblyman Jim Brulte of Rancho Cucamonga must show Democrats whether, in fact, he really has the 41 Republican votes to topple legendary Willie Brown as Speaker.

No more boasts, predictions or gloating over Nov. 8 election results. Just the votes. Republican votes. All 41--even peeved Paul Horcher’s.

Horcher, from Diamond Bar, crossed his GOP colleagues two years ago by accepting Brown’s appointment to a coveted committee vice chairmanship. Brulte, then the new minority leader, had recommended another Republican favored by the GOP caucus. The wily Speaker was teaching Brulte manners and was making mischief. Republicans got so riled they treated Horcher like dirt, childishly shunning him as an outcast for the entire legislative session.

Now Horcher can take his revenge by withholding the 41st vote needed to elect a GOP Speaker. But he probably would be committing political suicide, inviting a recall by the GOP voters who sent him to Sacramento.

“After 24 years of Republicans being in the minority, I can’t imagine how anybody--no matter how mad or how dumb--could refuse to vote for a Republican as Speaker,” observes Senate GOP Leader Ken Maddy of Fresno.

The odds are that Horcher, in the end, will vote for Brulte. It was Brulte, after all, who saved him from being booted completely out of the GOP caucus. But Horcher has gone into hiding. And if he doesn’t vote for Brulte, it’s not likely any Democrat will either.

Brulte needs to show the 39 Democrats that the GOP can sweep them out of power without any treasonous help from themselves.

“Someone either has 41 votes or he doesn’t,” notes Assemblyman Louis Caldera, a rising Democratic star who represents Downtown Los Angeles. “If Jim Brulte has 41 Republican votes, then there are some Democrats who should consider voting for him as a show of good faith. I would consider that. But I’m not going to be his 41st vote. I’ll be surprised if any Democrat breaks ranks to be the 41st vote for Jim Brulte.”

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This is the sort of fix Brulte had in mind last fall when he privately was telling people that his “worst nightmare” was to wake up on Nov. 9 and learn that 41 Republicans had been elected to the Assembly. He was only half joking.

Ideally, he said, Republicans would gain six seats and have 39. They then could exert more pressure on Brown, demand better committee assignments and plot for a solid majority after 1996. But 41 Republicans were a very shaky majority, especially when they included the unpredictable Horcher and one member (Richard L. Mountjoy of Arcadia) destined soon to leave for the Senate.

Nailing down the speakership could be tricky enough, Brulte realized. But that would be easy compared to actually running the house while watching your backside for festering coups. It was a formula made for gridlock: Only a one-vote majority and a lame-duck Speaker confined by term limits to a two-year reign.

To aggravate matters, Democrats control the Senate, also by a one-vote majority. The Legislature hardly could be more evenly divided.

The last Republican Speaker assumed the post under similar circumstances, but without the term limits. He lasted only two years anyway because Democrats regained control at the next election. Like Brulte, GOP Speaker Bob Monagan in 1969 succeeded a legend: Jesse (Big Daddy) Unruh.

To survive, Monagan gave four Democrats committee chairmanships. “Brulte needs to build alliances with responsible Democrats,” Monagan says. “They’ve felt the public wrath in this election. So they might be willing to work with Republicans.”

But will Horcher?

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Brulte, 38, is a shrewd, skillful operator with a disarming, jovial personality. A former White House advance man, he has been active politically most of his life, having acquired the bug as a 10-year-old slapping on bumper stickers in Ronald Reagan’s first gubernatorial race.

He’s more pragmatic than ideological, a conservative whose chief cause--besides Republican success--is boosting the economy. On social issues, he’s a GOP centrist--approving of abortion in cases of rape, incest and threat to a mother’s life and favoring a classroom moment of silence rather than prayer. Of far more interest to him are environmental, regulatory and tort “reform,” all through the eyes of business.

But Brulte has not yet really been tested. Playing opposition leader is a snap compared to prevailing as Speaker and finessing bills through a closely divided house. And his first test will be to count 41 Republicans. If he can’t, it’s gridlock already.