NEWS ANALYSIS : Republican Lapses Blamed for Speakership Impasse : Politics: Experts say GOP's Brulte failed to consolidate power. Horcher's maverick ways were underestimated.

By MARK GLADSTONE and PAUL JACOBS

Dec. 8, 1994 12 AM PT

TIMES STAFF WRITERS

SACRAMENTO —

Just a month ago, buoyant, even cocky, Republican legislators gathered in the Capitol to applaud themselves for a surprise election triumph that provided them a wafer-thin Assembly majority.

After more than two decades out of power, they were ready to divide the spoils of victory and anoint as Speaker Jim Brulte, an obscure but politically savvy Southern California GOP legislator starting just his third term in office.

But at least for now their dream of taking power has slipped away--and some political professionals say the Republicans blew their opportunity.

On Monday, Brulte could muster support from only 40 of his 41 members and wound up in a stalemate with veteran Democratic Speaker Willie Brown, a 30-year Assembly veteran and longtime GOP nemesis.

In the euphoria of the past month, the untested Brulte showed that he knew how to win elections but not necessarily how to translate that success into political power. As Monday’s vote approached, he and his fellow conservatives apparently failed to realize that GOP gains in the Assembly still did not add up to a Republican speakership.

Although Brulte eventually may become Speaker, what emerged from interviews is a story of Republican miscalculation, overconfidence and unwillingness to engage in old-fashioned political deal-making to persuade fence-sitting Democrats to abandon Brown.

Some politicians around the intrigue-charged Capitol say Brulte also failed to understand the intricacies of putting together a solid majority, that a prospective leader needs a few extra votes in case of an emergency.

“You’ve got to know the rules before you play the game,” said one GOP Assembly staff member, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Brulte, he said, did not have a backup plan when Republican Paul Horcher (R-Diamond Bar) sided with Brown, resulting in a 40-40 stalemate.

However, Brulte spokesman Phil Perry said, “We knew the rules. . . . The fact they turned a Republican had nothing to do with the rules.”

Newly sworn-in Assemblywoman Sheila Kuehl, a Democrat from West Los Angeles, said the deadlock is less a result of Brown’s cunning than the product of Republican bumbling. Brulte, she said, took too much for granted.

“I’ve seen nothing but Republicans tripping over their own feet,” Kuehl said. “They are tripping over their own assumptions, and their own mistakes.”

In particular, Republicans misjudged just how deeply hurt maverick Horcher was after years of slights directed at him, especially by right-wing members of his own party, according to legislators. Horcher bolted and voted for Brown, and he is now the target of a recall attempt.

Republicans also underestimated Brown’s strong grip on the loyalties of his own members and failed to remember that the San Franciscan had won and retained the speakership with GOP backing over his record 14-year tenure.

Brown has thrived in his position by becoming known as a “members’ Speaker” for both Democrats and Republicans--remembering birthdays, driving colleagues home and even intervening on behalf of legislators’ children embroiled in legal troubles.

It has allowed Brown and his followers to keep power, which means control of hundreds of Assembly staff positions, committee chairmanships, office assignments, the legislative agenda and millions of dollars in special interest campaign contributions.

Along the way, Brown emerged as the state’s second-most-powerful officeholder after the governor and one of the nation’s leading African American politicians.

Until Monday, Brulte seemed on the verge of toppling Brown, telling his backers not to fret and that he had secured the support of Horcher and some wavering Democrats. But it turned out that the Rancho Cucamonga legislator only had 40 votes in the 80-member house, prompting questions even from Republican loyalists about how Brulte had failed to capitalize on his stunning election victories.

Take the case of pro-business Democrat Joe Baca, who like Brulte represents the growing Inland Empire. Shortly after the Nov. 8 election, Brulte made a pitch for Baca’s support over lunch at a Black Angus in San Bernardino.

Baca gave the following account: The two discussed what committee chair Baca might secure under a Brulte speakership--but not as a reward for his vote.

When Baca sought a major prize, such as the budget writing committee or the Rules Committee, Brulte ruled those out. Baca, a former phone company executive, had a third choice--the Utilities and Commerce Committee chairmanship--but Brulte told him he had offered that post to Republican Mickey Conroy of Orange.

Brulte tried to steer Baca to a lesser assignment, but it was rejected. Baca wound up seconding Brown’s nomination as Speaker.

Brulte could not be reached for comment. His spokesman, Perry, denied Baca’s account, contending that the Democrat “pretty much said he was for sale to the highest bidder.”

Former Assemblyman Dean Andal (R-Stockton) said Brulte and his fellow Republicans were not willing to win Democratic votes at all costs.

“It is true,” he said, “that the Republicans aren’t willing to break principle to cut deals as much as Willie Brown is.” Before his recent election to the State Board of Equalization, Andal was in the Assembly GOP leadership’s inner circle.

In his view, there is a simple explanation for the collapse of Brulte’s strategy: Horcher’s willingness to cut a deal with Brown. Horcher has denied getting anything in exchange for his support.

“No one is ever going to try and buy or sell my vote,” Horcher said.

Assemblyman Curt Pringle of Garden Grove, who last year was GOP caucus chairman, denied that staunch conservatives had tied Brulte’s hands, making it impossible for him to negotiate with Horcher or moderate Democrats such as Baca or Sal Cannella of Ceres.

Pringle said Brulte did not make any promises, even to his own members. “He played it close to the vest,” Pringle said.

As for Baca, Pringle said, he doubted that Baca would have been willing to provide the decisive vote for Brulte. “I’ve yet to see that he would have been the 41st vote for a committee chairmanship.”

Some moderate Democrats described seemingly halfhearted attempts by Brulte to reach out to them when it looked like he had the 41 votes he needed to be Speaker. However, Cannella, one Democrat whose politics are not far from those of Republicans, said he was surprised that Brulte made no effort to contact him at all.

Cannella said he had heard rumors that Brulte had boasted of lining up his vote. Several Republicans called him, he said, to find out whether he was one of four or five Democrats who Brulte predicted would cast their lot with him.

To win the speakership fight, Cannella said, Brulte needed to reach out to large numbers of Democrats, something he and his fellow Republicans failed to do. “I think it has to do with egos,” Cannella said. The election results “gave Mr. Brulte a distorted picture on how the Republicans were going to take over the house. That feeling of triumph . . . overshadowed his need to reach out.”

Near the end, Brulte tried to woo at least one wavering Democrat.

Assemblyman Dominic L. Cortese (D-San Jose) recalled that after the election he had several conversations with Brulte. Cortese said he would not have cast the decisive vote for Brulte but would have considered providing him with an extra margin of victory.

“I’d be brokering my own future rather than remaining part of the loyal opposition,” said Cortese, who is considering a run for the state Senate.

On Monday, on the way to the Assembly floor, he stopped to talk to Brulte and asked him if he had 41 votes and “he said, ‘I’ve got them. I’ve got them locked up.’ ”

Cortese asked whether Horcher was aboard. Brulte responded, “Absolutely.”

Seeking proof, Cortese asked Brulte “to bring in Horcher to confirm that.” But Brulte demurred and told Cortese to vote his own way.

A few minutes later, Cortese bumped into Brown in the same hallway and asked the Democratic leader to produce Horcher. Brown made good on the promise, arranging a meeting with Horcher, who indicated he was in Brown’s camp.

Cortese is still shaking his head at Brulte’s inability to round up all his members. “He had no cushion, and he told me going into the chamber he had no other Democrats. And when I passed him on the floor, I commented quietly, ‘You don’t have Horcher,’ and he shook his head no.”

Times staff writer Cynthia H. Craft contributed to this story.