THE CUTTING EDGE: SPECIAL REPORT / HOT TIPS : What’s Coming, When, and Why It’s a Big Deal : Dizzying Array of New Video Game Players Due

Video game buffs who want better, faster, higher-resolution play with cooler graphics will be able to buy machines that offer all that and more in 1995, a year that’s shaping up as an exciting but tumultuous watershed for the industry.

A horde of new game consoles will descend on the market next year, creating uncertainty and conceivably slowing overall sales as even the most avid video game players falter at the sudden range of options displacing what used to be an easy Nintendo-Sega coin toss.

Bruce Ryon of Dataquest says his prediction for 1995 is that consumers will become “very, very confused about what video game player to buy. Sony vs. Atari vs. 3DO vs. Nintendo vs. Sega? Sixteen-bit vs. 32-bit vs. 64-bit?”

The number of American homes with CD-ROM drives in their personal computers is expected to more than double next year to 10 million as many consumers opt to invest in PC-based game play instead. Quadruple-speed drives, twice as fast as those now available, will dominate sales by next spring. As the market reaches a critical mass, the price of CD-ROM software will drop, and the budding industry may even figure out a way to market its products effectively.

At the same time, there will be a massive shake-out of the hundreds of small CD-ROM software developers that have sprung up over the last two years. The quality of titles will improve as the price of entry climbs closer to the 1994 record of $5 million spent on producing a CD-ROM game. The much-predicted dominance of Microsoft Corp. in games and other home software--a new area for the software giant in 1994--will likely come to pass.

Taking it month by month: January will likely bring lower prices for the 16-bit Super Nintendo Entertainment System and Sega Genesis, as retailers close out what will be the last big Christmas for the 5-year-old machines.

February and March will see the release of Atari’s CD-ROM adapter for its 64-bit cartridge system currently on the market ($150-$200), and perhaps the initial shipments of Sega’s Saturn and Sony’s Playstation, both 32-bit systems favorably received in Japan this year.

In April, Nintendo promises a semi-portable device called “Virtual Boy,” complete with goggles. By June, the Saturn and the Playstation (both about $350) should be widely available, leaving consumers to ponder whether to buy one for the summer months or wait till fall, when Nintendo’s “Ultra-64”--a cartridge game machine developed in collaboration with high-end computer manufacturer Silicon Graphics--is due out, with a price tag of about $250.

Apple Computer’s first consumer entertainment device, a hybrid computer and video game console based on a modified version of Motorola’s Power PC microprocessor, is expected in October or November, as is an advanced version of the 3DO console also incorporating the new chip.

It will be a make-or-break year for the upstart 3DO, which has offered superior game play at a higher price for the last year. Sales of the machine have reached 2 million worldwide after a slow start, but its main advantage--being ahead of the competition--will disappear next year as deep-pocketed rivals enter the market.

Meanwhile, new ways to play games over telephone and cable lines will bring additional competition for game players’ attention. The Sega Channel will become available in many markets, and Catapult Entertainment’s network, which allows subscribers to play popular Sega and Nintendo games with each other in real time over phone lines, will be rolled out across the country. Fujitsu, which purchased on-line game technology developed by George Lucas’ firm this year, is expected to offer a sort of cyberspace Dungeons & Dragons in the first quarter.

Which of the platforms will emerge victorious will depend largely on what games are available to play on them. The year will see several video games based on major movies--and vice-versa, as Hollywood continues to ramp up its investment in the game industry.

Despite being the first full year of an industry-wide rating system, games won’t be any less violent--so look for continued wrangling with Congress and consumer groups as interactive software becomes an increasingly greater cultural force.

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HOME TECHNOLOGY

What: Nintendo Ultra-64

When: Late 1995

Why it’s important: If it costs as little as Nintendo says, the super-fast cartridge-based game machine could be a bigger hit than any of its CD-ROM competitors.