Political Climate Cools for Clinton : California: President will spend two days reviewing quake repairs, flood damage. But since Nov. 8 elections, his ability to deliver for state has eroded.

No matter what chill winds blew elsewhere, President Clinton could count on warm greetings in California during his first two years in office. Audiences were large and welcomes hearty, even during a midterm election when he was persona non grata through broad swaths of the nation.

But as Clinton arrives today to inspect recent flood damage and year-old earthquake repair work, he may find the temperature has fallen several degrees. Entering the crucial year before his reelection bid, his allies in California are beleaguered; his nemesis, Gov. Pete Wilson, is newly empowered; new conservative initiatives are brewing, and the economic future is uncertain.

“I think Clinton’s going to have a very difficult time in California,” one House Democrat and longtime ally said.

During his two-day visit, Clinton will spend most of his time inspecting federal disaster-relief work, which seems to have done much to bolster the President’s status among Californians. After observing Martin Luther King Day at the private, nonprofit Community Build Center in South-Central Los Angeles, he heads to Cal State Northridge on Tuesday morning to inspect earthquake cleanup, then flies to Northern California to survey destruction caused by the recent flooding.

Although he may talk about the need for additional federal earthquake assistance, he will probably be aware that his Administration no longer has quite the same ability to deliver federal goodies that it had before the midterm elections.

While California Democrats lost only three seats in the House and narrowly retained Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s seat, the Republican electoral wave turned out California Democrats perched atop a series of powerful congressional committees.

Feinstein lost her seat on the Appropriations Committee, a huge dispenser of dollars. Rep. Ronald V. Dellums of Oakland is no longer chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. Rep. Henry A. Waxman of Los Angeles does not preside over the Energy and Commerce subcommittee on health, a seat he used to powerful effect.

Also, Rep. George Miller of Martinez lost the chairmanship of the House Natural Resources Committee. Rep. George E. Brown Jr. of Colton does not direct the Science, Space and Technology panel. And Rep. Pete Stark of Hayward yielded the chairmanship of the Ways and Means health subcommittee. Although Stark was the Administration’s tormentor nearly as often as its ally, his change in status may also set back Clinton’s ability to deliver for the often-beleaguered Golden State.

“California has lost so much clout,” said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, senior associate at the Center for Politics and Economics at Claremont Graduate School.

She says the election marked a general diminishing in the Democrats’ appeal to Californians. Rep. Jane Harman of Rolling Hills won only narrowly, and by carefully distancing herself from Clinton with a message that she was “nobody’s tool,” Jeffe said.

As Democratic strength has waned, Wilson’s has grown, or at least he has gained greater ability to focus national attention on Clinton’s shortcomings.

Some analysts said they believe that Wilson’s assaults on the President have become so familiar that they may be losing some effectiveness. Even so, Wilson is now a presumed presidential candidate for 1996, which has given him a greatly enhanced ability to attract national media attention wherever he chooses to pounce.

While Wilson seems to have moderated, at least momentarily, his demands for federal assistance to cover the costs of illegal immigration, he has opened a new battlefront by suing the federal government to pay the costs of the “motor voter” law allowing citizens to register when they renew their driver’s license, which Clinton successfully championed.

And while Wilson has appeared generally cooperative with the federal government in flood relief, his staff seemed to be trying to tweak the Clinton Administration last week by suggesting that it wanted to skimp on aid to the state by proposing a narrow definition of who is eligible.

While Wilson is saying the only job he wants is the one he has, California Democrats have drawn a different conclusion. Wilson’s blame-assigning is “clearly and purely presidential politics,” said state Democratic Party Chairman Bill Press.

The economic outlook for the state is also uncertain. While 1995 is shaping up as a strong year for California, forecasters fear that rising interest rates could take the same toll on California that they will elsewhere.

UCLA’s Business Forecasting Project believes that 1996 may produce only half the new jobs that will be generated in the state this year. And if the state economy loses vitality, that could sharpen anger about immigration issues.

Even groups battling to slow down illegal immigration have given Clinton credit for Operation Gatekeeper, the stepped-up border-enforcement effort that has reduced the influx along key sectors of the California border.

But there is still a vast flow, a point that may not be lost on California’s unemployed if the economy again begins to weaken.

Democrats also are anxious about the effects of a proposed California initiative that would amend the state Constitution to ban affirmative action policies for minorities and women in hiring for state jobs or in admission at state-run colleges. The initiative would also outlaw preferences for minorities in awarding contracts.

The issue is a “ticking time bomb,” Jeffe said.

The issue gives Clinton no room to hedge. He is on the record as favoring affirmative action, and the convictions of his party leave him no room to maneuver, said one prominent California Democrat.

Administration officials are confident that they still have much to brag about in recounting their record. They cite the immigration effort, the $12-billion federal earthquake response and the effort to cushion the impact of declining defense spending.

They also argue that California’s huge trade economy has benefited from the Administration’s trade-liberalization treaties.

They minimize the damage Wilson can do from the governor’s mansion and assert that they can overcome the setback of Los Angeles’ failure to win designation as a top-priority “empowerment zone,” which would have brought a huge federal grant to distressed areas of the city.

They hope congressional Republicans will help control California’s dissatisfaction by looking out for the state’s interests. House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) this month appointed a group of three members to attend to that job, one aide noted.

The last statewide opinion survey by The Times Poll showed that Clinton had a 50% approval rate, making him more popular in the state than he was nationwide. But that was in October, and the political landscape has changed radically since then.

So as the year progresses, Clinton may need new opportunities to show his special devotion to the Golden State. Joked a California Republican analyst: “A few more fires, quakes and floods could come in pretty handy.”