BASEBALL / ROSS NEWHAN : It’s Open Season on Division Titles Starting Tuesday

Delayed but not denied, the 1995 season opens Tuesday night with:

--No commissioner.

--No resolution to the labor dispute that interrupted the 1994 season on Aug. 12.

--No guarantee it will be played to conclusion.

--No clear-cut favorite in any of the six divisions except, perhaps, the Atlanta Braves.

Amid management contention that strike-related losses have underscored the need for a new economic system and widened the competitive gap between the big and small markets, ultimately projecting to what acting Commissioner Bud Selig calls a two-tiered society, the respective races would appear to be more competitive than ever.

Since striking players began returning on April 5, a market glutted by free agents--22 players signed with new teams on one day alone, including six former 20-game winners--gave several clubs an opportunity to enhance their chances at bargain prices. The Texas Rangers signed nine players who made more than $17 million last year for less than $11 million. The Philadelphia Phillies signed eight role players for less than $2 million. Price was no object for the Colorado Rockies and Florida Marlins, who jumped into third-year contention with major investments.

“You can round off a team in a hurry now,” Phillie Manager Jim Fregosi said. “The players aren’t looking to break the bank.”

The players were looking, but their equity wasn’t what it used to be. The take-it-or-leave-it offers have the players’ union examining the clubs’ behavior for possible evidence of collusion, but a union lawyer also called it a routine procedure since the three collusion cases of the mid-1980s.

Collusion? Selig says that’s ludicrous, calls the salary reductions a sign of the times and insists the rich will continue to get richer until there is a new bargaining agreement.

Yet his own small-market team, the Milwaukee Brewers in the American League Central, may be one of only three teams without much hope. The Pittsburgh Pirates in the National League Central are another, as are the American League West Angels, whose ownership has reduced a market of unlimited potential into small-market economic status under management’s definition by ignoring promotion, community involvement and the concept of spending money to make money.

The other 25 clubs all have a chance to some degree, including the 108-171 San Diego Padres of the last two years and the small-market Montreal Expos, damaged but not ruined by the financially motivated loss of John Wetteland, Larry Walker, Marquis Grissom and Ken Hill.

In addition to the six division leaders, 10 teams were within 6 1/2 games of their division lead when the strike began last year.

The new races figure to be even tighter.

Some predictions and comments:

NATIONAL LEAGUE

WEST: 1--San Francisco, 2--Dodgers, 3--San Diego, 4--Colorado.

Not necessarily the best, but maybe the most competitive division. Any team could win it.

San Diego has a flame-throwing rotation on the verge of breakthrough and a vastly improved defense with the acquisition of Steve Finley, Ken Caminiti and Andujar Cedeno in the 12-player trade with Houston. Colorado, still with major pitching questions, got an ace in Bill Swift and a left-handed-hitting run producer in Walker and will ride the momentum of ongoing sellouts in new Coors Field.

The Dodgers are to be applauded for the commitment to their young players and their investment in the global economy. But they could miss some veteran leadership, and they have too many questions at too many positions to be the current pick. The suspicion is that a powerful and proven lineup, the best defense in baseball and the division’s most reliable closer (Rod Beck) will enable the Giants to overcome the loss of three pitchers--Swift, John Burkett and Bud Black--from a rotation that expects Terry Mulholland, 6-7 with the Yankees last year, to be the new No. 1.

CENTRAL: 1--Cincinnati, 2--Houston, 3--St. Louis, 4--Chicago, 5--Pittsburgh.

The Reds led the Astros by half a game when the strike began. Since then, Cincinnati seems to have become a bit stronger, the Astros a bit weaker--or, at least, more uncertain.

Houston got Derek Bell and Phil Plantier in the trade with San Diego, a nice power accompaniment for Jeff Bagwell, but one key is the performance of two rookies: shortstop Orlando Miller and center fielder Brian Hunter, who led the Pacific Coast League with a .372 average and 49 steals.

The Reds will have Deion Sanders for a full season in center, recently signed Benito Santiago behind the plate and more versatility in left if Ron Gant is completely back from the leg injury that prompted his release by Atlanta and sidelined him last season. Gant and his 30-homer, 30-steal potential must replace Kevin Mitchell, who was allowed to lumber off to Japan after hitting 30 homers and driving in 77 runs in only 95 games last year. The Reds also strengthened an already strong bullpen, signing Beck’s former setup man, Mike Jackson, and Xavier Hernandez. St. Louis will be more of a factor than its 53-61 of last year, having improved a woeful rotation with the acquisition of Danny Jackson and Hill. The Cardinals also signed closer Tom Henke and traded for Boston’s All-Star third baseman, Scott Cooper, which sends Todd Zeile to first base as the replacement for Gregg Jefferies, who went to the Phillies as a free agent.

EAST: 1--Atlanta, 2--Florida, 3--Montreal, 4--Philadelphia, 5--New York.

Any of the other four clubs could finish in any of the runner-up positions, but no one can beat the Braves, who still have that incomparable rotation and now have the legitimate leadoff hitter they have lacked in Grissom, acquired in the Expo fire sale. The long-touted Chipper Jones takes over at third, and rookie Brad Clontz, who had 38 minor league saves last year, will get a chance to fill Atlanta’s long-running closer void.

The Marlins are an interesting proposition after their big-money signings of starting pitchers Burkett and Bobby Witt and the addition of veteran leadership in third baseman Terry Pendleton and right fielder Andre Dawson. It would not be a surprise if they finally traded their now-sound relief ace, Bryan Harvey (the Cleveland Indians have been on the trail), and gave that job to 25-year-old Robb Nen, who had 15 saves when Harvey was hurt last year.

The Expos still have a young and improving nucleus--what is there not to admire about Rondell White, Cliff Floyd, Moises Alou and Wil Cordero?--but gave away too much to challenge the Braves. If attendance doesn’t improve, it could be the last year for the Expos in Quebec. Three teams from this division--Montreal, Florida and Philadelphia--figure to be in the crowded NL wild-card race with Houston and three teams from the West--Colorado, San Diego and the Dodgers.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

WEST: 1--Seattle, 2--Texas, 3--Oakland, 4--Angels.

The only certainty in this mess is that the Angels won’t be involved. Texas led the division with a miserable 52-62 record last year, then underwent turnover at all levels of the organization. Does it guarantee improvement? Not necessarily. The West figures to be pummeled again by the East and Central.

New General Manager Doug Melvin added some stability to the Texas rotation with the signings of Bob Tewksbury and Kevin Gross and got Mickey Tettleton at a clearance to restore some power after Jose Canseco was traded to Boston for Otis Nixon. It isn’t clear, however, who the closer is, and there are significant concerns regarding Juan Gonzalez, who will open the season on the disabled list because of a herniated disk; shortstop Benji Gil, a spring bust, and Manager Johnny Oates, who has been granted a leave of absence because of his wife’s illness and related family problems. Why Seattle? Just a feeling that the long-suffering Mariners will finally catch a full summer of good health and good luck, that they’ll find a No. 4 starter (forget about a No. 5) to go with Randy Johnson, Chris Bosio and Dave Fleming (which is as good as it gets in this division) and that the new 1-2 hitters--left fielder Darren Bragg and second baseman Joey Cora--will provide Ken Griffey Jr. and Jay Buhner with even more RBI opportunities. On the other hand, if the Mariners get off poorly, they’ll be dumping salaries faster than the rate at which Kingdome ceiling tiles fall.

CENTRAL: 1--Cleveland, 2--Chicago, 3--Kansas City, 4--Minnesota, 5--Milwaukee.

This is a two-team race, and the Indians, who were one game behind the White Sox when the strike began, are now the better team. With owner Jerry Reinsdorf imposing new financial restraints, the White Sox lost 30 home runs and 149 RBIs as Julio Franco and Darrin Jackson packed for Japan. Mike Devereaux was signed to fill Jackson’s outfield spot, and Chris Sabo was signed to replace Franco, the designated hitter. Devereaux and Sabo combined for 20 homers and 75 RBIs with Baltimore last year. A comparable gap exists in the rotation, Jack McDowell having been traded to the Yankees for virtually nothing at a time when it appeared McDowell would become a free agent under a new economic system. The White Sox, in turn, signed former Angel and Yankee Jim Abbott as an untendered free agent, but Abbott’s 45-48 record during the last four years isn’t comparable to McDowell’s 67-39.

Cleveland improved its rotation depth with the signing of Bud Black and Orel Hershiser--who will only have to be the No. 4 starter behind Dennis Martinez, Mark Clark and Charles Nagy--and improved its bullpen depth with the signing of Paul Assenmacher. The true measure of how close the Indians think they are to a division title, of how determined they are to maintain the renaissance in their new park, is this: Owner Richard Jacobs, a hawk at times, has given General Manager John Hart permission to pursue a high-salaried closer. Indian scouts have been following Harvey, Minnesota’s Rick Aguilera and Kansas City’s Jeff Montgomery. Any of the three would seem to represent the missing link for an otherwise set and potent team that led the majors in runs last year.

EAST: 1--New York, 2--Baltimore, 3--Toronto, 4--Boston, 5--Detroit.

Memory test: Wasn’t it the Blue Jays who won the last World Series? Now it’s a measure of the strength in baseball’s best division that Toronto doesn’t figure higher than third and could finish fourth behind the Red Sox. The Blue Jays still have a terrific core--Joe Carter, Paul Molitor, Devon White, Roberto Alomar and John Olerud. They expect full-season help from left fielder Shawn Green, shortstop Alex Gonzalez and catcher Carlos Delgado. They have added David Cone to a rotation that includes Pat Hentgen and Juan Guzman, but questions about the fourth and fifth starters and closer Duane Ward, who appeared in only three games because of arm problems, cloud the Blue Jays’ hopes.

The Red Sox pumped up the middle of the attack by acquiring Canseco and Mark Whiten to keep Mo Vaughn company in the weight room, signed a solid catcher in Mike Macfarlane and recently added free agent Zane Smith to an already suspect rotation dealt a significant blow Saturday when it was learned that Roger Clemens will be out until June with a muscle strain in his arm. The loss of Clemens may prompt the Red Sox to renew pursuit of Angel left-hander Chuck Finley. General Manager Dan Duquette has swept out 35 players in the last year, but it’s questionable now if the Red Sox have enough pitching to compete with Yankees and Orioles, who are deep in it.

The Yankees, leading the division by 6 1/2 games when the strike started, have added McDowell to a rotation that includes Jimmy Key, Melido Perez and the developing Scott Kaminicki and Sterling Hitchcock. They have turned up the heat in an already deep and hard-throwing bullpen by acquiring Wetteland as a right-handed complement to Steve Howe. An established lineup now includes shortstop Tony Fernandez, keeping it warm until touted Derek Jeter is ready.

The Orioles think Arthur Rhodes is finally ready to add his missiles to the nasty arsenal of Mike Mussina and Ben McDonald. They also think free agent Kevin Brown will recapture his 20-victory Texas form with a solid defense and consistent offense behind him. A rotation of Mussina, McDonald, Rhodes and Brown could be intimidating no matter how much weight or many games Sid Fernandez loses. He begins the season complaining the 40 pounds he has lost have cost him his fastball. The ghost of Lou Gehrig won’t find Murderer’s Row at Camden Yards, but what the Orioles pitch they almost always catch. They made 18 fewer errors than any AL team last year. The key question: Can veteran Doug Jones or the promising Armando Benitez replace Lee Smith’s 33 saves?

Time will tell, of course.

In the meantime, that almost sounded like a replacement umpire crying, “Play ball!” Eight months later it still has a familiar ring.