OECD Predicts Slower Growth for Countries

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has revised down its economic growth forecasts for most of its 25 member countries for this year and next.

The predictions were released at a news conference at the OECD, which is holding its 34th ministerial meeting today and Wednesday. A fuller report on economic forecasts will be issued in June. Such forecasts are issued twice yearly, in June and December.

“The general outlook for member countries is reasonable though not flourishing,” said Jean-Claude Paye, secretary-general of the OECD. “This is sustainable growth without inflation.”

For the OECD as a whole, the organization sees GDP growing by 2.7% in 1995 and 1996. That compares to December estimates of 3% and 2.9%, respectively.

The OECD’s chief economist, Kumiharu Shigehara, predicted a general slowdown that would be gradual in the United States and continental Europe and severe in Japan.

Still, Shigehara played down such forecasts, saying a slowdown is “necessary for sustained growth.”

The U.S. economy is expected to buck the pattern, growing 3.2% in 1995 and 2.3% in 1996. That compares to December’s estimates of 3.1% and 2%, respectively.

GDP in Japan is now forecast to be growing by 1.3% in 1995, compared to December’s forecasts of 2.5%. In Germany, GDP growth of 2.9% is seen in 1995, compared to earlier projections of 2.8%.