NBA FINALS : Both Teams Destined for Greatness : Analysis: It seems too early for the Magic to win it all. But for these Rockets, it’s never too late.

Fairy tales do come true; it has happened to you, Houston Rockets. . . .

Some pixie from the big theme park south of town must have jumped the fence and sprinkled pixie dust on the O-rena, where tonight’s start of the NBA finals matches the Orlando Magic against the magical.

The Magic is merely ahead of schedule. The magical--the Rockets--are living a dream. Formally the NBA defending champions, they were in real life a burned-out, divided bunch when the playoffs started, running on empty and headed for vacation.

Here they are, instead. Thirty-six days, 18 games, 5-0 when it was win or go home. If this is a dream, please set the coach’s alarm clock for July 1.

“It is a fairy tale,” Rocket Coach Rudy Tomjanovich said Tuesday, his voice quivering.

“It’s amazing. It’s all the cliches--hang in there, don’t give up, it’s not over yet.

“There were times, even in the first series, they [Utah Jazz] are playing the fight song like they’re gonna move on. We’re down 12, but we’re hangin’ in there, hangin’ in there, gettin’ it done.

“Already, what we’ve done, they’re some of the greatest moments I’ve ever been involved in basketball. There’s a dam there, and you can see that there’s some cracks, but there’s always somebody there to pull us through, and it’s a hell of an experience, I’m tellin’ you.”

How about the Utah series, down, 2-1, winning the last two, including Game 5 in Salt Lake City after trailing by 12 late in the third quarter?

That was eclipsed by the series against the Suns, down, 3-1, with Game 5 in Phoenix and flu-ridden Clyde Drexler out on his feet.

Who can remember that far back after Hakeem Olajuwon went from Mere Superstar to Legend in the San Antonio series?

Of course, if the Rockets haven’t forgotten it by now, they’d better hurry because they’re about to be dropped into another tub of alligators. If the Magic players are respectful, they’re also bigger, younger, deeper and have home-court advantage in a building where they’re 46-4 this season.

Right now, the Rockets are only a Team of Near Destiny. The real thing awaits the winner.

*

Sorting through the axioms and factors, one finds conclusively that neither team can win this best-of-seven series.

The Rockets are too thin. Effectively, they’re six deep, with only point guard Kenny Smith having a capable backup, Sam Cassell. In Game 6 against the Spurs, the Magnificent Six played 228 of the 240 minutes. The second and third players off the bench, Charles Jones and Chucky Brown, were midseason emergency pickups.

Rudy T plays a three-guard lineup, and one of his two big men, 6-10 Robert Horry, is a small forward who’s a better three-point shooter than rebounder. Even the storied Olajuwon is listed at 7-0, claims to be 6-11 and is really 6-10.

Not surprisingly, they can’t rebound. Of the 16 playoff teams, the Rockets are 16th, trailing even the two teams that were swept in three games in the first round.

On the other hand, the Rockets have Olajuwon.

His numbers (33 points a game, 54% from the field, 10 rebounds, four assists, three blocks) don’t begin to tell the story. He reduced most valuable player David Robinson, two inches taller, five years younger and quicker, to a grease spot. Out of nowhere, the 32-year-old Olajuwon, the ’94 MVP, improvised a dazzling array of moves never shown before by him or anyone else.

Says Magic Coach Brian Hill: “I marveled at him.”

Says Tomjanovich: “His performance was something that people will be talking about for years.”

The Rockets also have Drexler, averaging 20 points in the postseason. Most of all, they have an incredible momentum, born of 1,000 clutch performances in 1,000 tight spots.

Here comes 1,001.

*

Of course, the Magic is too young.

It is axiomatic that a team can’t win its first time in the finals, or the conference finals for that matter.

Of course, this theory is already under revision, since the Magic, which had never won a playoff game, let alone a series, has advanced this far, closing Boston Garden, beating Michael Jordan in the United Center, routing the Indiana Orlando’s first Game 7.

And Shaquille O’Neal can’t shoot free throws.

Of course, when he missed eight of 11 Sunday against the Pacers, it didn’t seem to drag his teammates down too badly. They won by 24 points. As long as he forces double-teams and pins the defense down, they can fire open three-point shots at will, as they did when they made 48% of them in the Pacer series.

Unlike the Bulls or Pacers, the Rockets don’t have a platoon of big men to assign to Shaq. It’s only Olajuwon and spindly (6-9, 215), old (38) Charles Jones against a 300-pound behemoth who is always going to the hoop and drawing fouls. Hakeem says the day after he plays O’Neal, he wakes up sore all over, so they’d better stock up on liniment, double-team fast and hope Shaq’s teammates are missing.

At the other end, however, O’Neal will get help from Horace Grant. The 6-10 Grant has guarded Olajuwon before, or as he puts it, “I tried to.”

However, with (prompt) double-team help, he can give O’Neal a breather. Shaq has held his own against Hakeem (O’Neal had 49 points and 27 rebounds in this season’s two meetings to Olajuwon’s 49-19), and that’s all his team needs.

*

Prediction: The Magic is gaining experience every day, but the Rockets aren’t getting any bigger or deeper.

Orlando in six.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Middle Men

Hakeem Olajuwon vs. Shaquille O’Neal is no small subplot as the championship series between the Houston Rockets and Orlando Magic gets under way. Here is a statistical comparison of the NBA’s most dominant centers and their supporting cast:

Hakeem Olajuwon

Regular Season Games: 79 Field Goal %: .517 Free Throw %: .756 Scoring Avg.: 27.8 Rebounds Avg.: 10.8 Assists Avg.: 3.5

Playoffs Games: 18 Field Goal %:.543 Free Throw %: .679 Scoring Avg.: 33.0 Rebounds Avg.: 10.1 Assists Avg.: 4.2

Shaquille O’Neal

Regular Season Games: 79 Field Goal %: .583 Free Throw %: .533 Scoring Avg.: 29.3 Rebounds Avg.: 11.4 Assists Avg.: 2.7

Playoffs Games: 17 Field Goal %: .572 Free Throw %: .571 Scoring Avg.: 25.1 Rebounds Avg.: 11.1 Assists Avg.: 2.6

Houston Rockets

Regular Season:

Starters Pts. Reb. Ast. G Drexler 21.8 6.3 4.8 G Smith 10.4 1.9 4.0 F Horry 10.2 5.1 3.4 F Elie 8.8 2.4 2.3

Key Reserves Pts. Reb. Ast. G Cassell 9.5 2.6 4.9 F Chilcutt 5.3 4.7 1.0

Playoffs

Starters Pts. Reb. Ast. G Drexler 20.2 6.4 4.7 G Smith 11.6 2.3 4.6 F Horry 12.1 6.4 3.4 F Elie 7.6 2.5 2.3

Key Reserves Pts. Reb. Ast. G Cassell 10.3 1.9 4.3 F Chilcutt 5.3 3.4 1.1

Orlando Magic

Regular Season:

Starters Pts. Reb. Ast. G Hardaway 20.9 4.4 7.2 G Anderson 15.8 4.4 4.1 F Grant 12.8 9.7 2.3 F Scott 12.9 2.4 2.1

Key Reserves Pts. Reb. Ast. G Shaw 6.4 3.1 5.2 F Royal 9.1 4.0 2.8

Playoffs

Starters Pts. Reb. Ast. G Hardaway 18.2 3.5 7.6 G Anderson 14.6 3.9 2.8 F Grant 13.7 10.1 1.9 F Scott 15.6 2.9 2.1

Key Reserves Pts. Reb. Ast. G Shaw 5.2 2.9 3.1 F Royal 2.2 1.1 0.5

Foul Play

The Orlando Magic, who shot a league-low .669 from the free-throw line during the regular season, are trying to become the fourth team in NBA history to win a championship after finishing last during the regular season in foul shooting. The all-time list:

Team Season FT % Lakers 1981-82 .717 Washington Bullets 1977-78 .711 Philadelphia 76ers 1966-67 .680