A LOS ANGELES TIMES - FINANCIAL TIMES SPECIAL REPORT : The Next California--The State’s Economy in the Year 2000 : The Next California / IMMIGRATION AND DIVERSITY : The State in 2000 : The Opportunities and Challenges of a Growing Population

California in the next century may look a little like KSCI-TV, Los Angeles’ Channel 18.

The UHF television station airs programming in 18 languages reaching 2 million households each week in Southern California. Its work force is growing and diverse.

And the 24-hour station, whose programming is carried around the country by its sister cable outlet, the International Channel, has discovered that diversity is profitable. Advertising revenue increased more than 30% last year, which was not a particularly good one for the Southern California economy.

“It’s a growing community,” said Rosemary Danon, a KSCI director and executive vice president of the International Channel. “The advertisers are recognizing that these people are a viable audience and they have money to spend.”

When the century turns less than five years from now, it is certain that California’s population will be larger, more diverse and less white. The state’s recession-induced growth slump will have ended, and new crops of residents, many older and more affluent, will have taken root.

California in the year 2000 will be a few steps closer to a future that might be a dream of diverse groups working together, or a nightmare of stratification by race and social class, or something in between. And some of the hottest issues of today, including illegal immigration and its economic impact, might somewhat, only to be replaced by other emotional topics.

It’s the futurists vs. the anti-futurists, the soothsayers vs. the naysayers, each with a different vision of what is to come.

Official state projections put California’s population at the 36.44 million mark by July, 2000, up 21.6% from the 29.98 million who called the state home in July, 1990.

Latinos will make up the fastest growing group during the decade, increasing by 48.7% to 11.51 million. Anglos will record the slowest growth rate, a mere 7.4% increase to 18.46 million.

By the year 2000, whites are expected to still be the majority group--but just barely, representing 50.7% of the state’s population. Latinos, blacks, Asians and other ethnic minorities are projected to become the combined majority during 2002, state demographers say. (Others estimate that event will occur sometime between next year and 2010.) But whites will remain the largest single group for several more years.

“The diversity of the California population will continue to increase,” said David E. Hayes-Bautista, a UCLA professor and a demographer specializing in Latino issues. “Clearly it will be a situation where there will be no such thing as a minority. Everyone will be a minority.”

The median age will rise to 33.98 years in 2000 from 31.29 years in 1990, according to state projections.

“The slowdown in population growth is over,” said Stephen Levy, director of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy. “A turnaround in the economy is already resulting in an increase in the number of people moving to California from other states.”

A recent study by the Palo Alto-based economic research firm predicted that an economic revival in California will push the state’s population to 38.2 million in 2005, a gain of 5.5 million residents. That is a more bullish projection than one last year by the UCLA Business Forecasting Project, which expects slower economic growth for the state and a population of 36.2 million by the end of 2004.

Levy’s study paints a picture of California striding into a new century equipped with bigger and more affluent households as workers enter their peak earning years. Projected job growth in the next decade will keep the state’s population growing faster than the nation, the report said.

Immigration and its effect on the economy has been an emotional topic recently, with studies produced by those on both sides of the immigration issue showing costs or benefits related to legal and illegal immigrants.

But some prognosticators speculate that immigration might be less of an issue in the future. There is a possibility that Congress will reduce the number of legal immigrants admitted to the United States. And a variety of factors might reduce illegal immigration, including better enforcement at the border, an improved economy in Mexico as trade initiatives increase wealth, and the perception of a less hospitable environment in the United States.

Kevin McCarthy, a demographer at RAND Corp. in Santa Monica who is studying the effects of immigration on the economy, said it is unclear whether immigration will continue to grow as it has in the past.

“Demand for low-skilled labor in California is likely to drop off, therefore there could be lower levels of undocumented immigration,” McCarthy said.

“Immigration is a big non-issue,” said Hayes-Bautista, who is also director of the UCLA Center for the Study of Latino Health and head of Alta California Policy Research Center, a Los Angeles-based think tank specializing in Latino issues. “There weren’t that many to begin with” and the rate of illegal immigration is declining from its peak in the 1980s, he said.

More important, he said, is to move past the “us vs. them” mentality that has given birth to anti-immigration movements.

“Eventually, we will make peace with who we are,” Hayes-Bautista said. “The sooner we make that peace, the better for California economically.”

But California will not lack for other emotional issues: Some fear economic and class stratification might develop as a young work force composed increasingly of Latinos, Asians and blacks encounters a changing economy based on higher-tech jobs that require skills they do not possess. There are also worries about conflicts that might appear in the future when those who pay Social Security taxes are more frequently minorities while those who receive Social Security benefits are whites.

Futurist and economist Roger Selbert describes himself as a contrarian, and his outlook is decidedly upbeat. Immigrants are a hidden asset, migrants from other states to California are better educated and more affluent than those who are moving out, and there is evidence that retirees are cashing in their home equity and moving out of state, he said.

“Immigrants are a self-selecting group,” he said. “Immigrants are the ones who had the gumption to leave their old lives and find new lives,” Selbert said, pointing out that California enjoys a high rate of business formation by minorities, many of them immigrants.

Selbert said he is not worried about a potential mismatch between workers’ skills and the available jobs.

“I don’t believe that we’re falling into a society of haves and have nots, or technology haves and have nots,” said Selbert, who publishes a twice-monthly newsletter called FutureScan, which is based in Santa Monica. “There are going to be opportunities at all levels on the skill scale.”

“These are the high-tech skills of the future: the ability to work, read and write; show up every day on time; look presentable, straight and sober; willing to work with people. Employers say, ‘Give me people like that and I can train them.’ ” Whatever develops, California during the next several years will serve as a sort of demographic laboratory for the nation, Levy said.

“Growing cultural diversity is a national, not just a state trend,” Levy said. “The lessons and experience of California, whether in the economy, consumer markets or work force preparation, are directly relevant to the future of most urban population centers in the United States.”

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Reality Check: Immigration and Diversity

Opportunity: Educators predict that in the year 2000, only one in five California adults will be functionally illiterate in English. That would be an improvement over current statistics, which show one in four functionally illiterate and unable to perform basic arithmetic.

Obstacle: But English literacy will be an increasing problem in schools with at least 28%, or 1.7 million students having limited proficiency, up from 1.3 million, or 20%, currently.