Mayor’s Valley Forecast: Blue Skies : Economy: Riordan and others at business conference see aerospace cuts ending, new industries growing.

After five years of economic turmoil capped by the Northridge earthquake, Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan assured business leaders Friday that the San Fernando Valley is “back on track” and on the verge of returning to its past boom era.

Citing a growing optimism and his Administration’s efforts to retain jobs and reduce bureaucratic red tape, Riordan said the Valley and the city as a whole have rebounded from the quake and the lingering recession.

“The Valley is a shining example of what is good in the city,” Riordan said during his so-called State of the Valley speech at the Valley Industry and Commerce Assn.’s seventh annual Business Forecast Conference in Woodland Hills.

However, most of the glowing predictions issued at the conference were based on the optimism of business owners as well as state business-growth and unemployment statistics that forecast a rebounding economy. The conference provided no specific economic reports on the Valley.

John Rooney, president of the Valley Economic Development Center, said that his nonprofit group released a survey recently showing that half the 250 Valley businesses polled said they planned to expand in the next few years.

“Everybody seems mildly optimistic,” he said.

Rooney and other participants pointed to several developments that will benefit the Valley. For example, they said aerospace cutbacks have bottomed out; the earthquake pumped billions of dollars in federal emergency money into the region and generated thousands of construction jobs; and entertainment and information-based services such as financial consulting have multiplied in the Valley.

Participants also cited a recent report by the Economic Development Corp. of Los Angeles County that predicted job growth of 2.1% and a 5.3% increase in retail sales in Southern California next year.

“We can see it happening around us as far as the entertainment industry goes,” said Robert Scott, president of the Economic Alliance of the San Fernando Valley, a collaboration of the Valley’s largest business groups. “New studios are opening up all over.”

However, there are concerns. Rooney said business leaders are worried about the city and county’s budget problems. Businesses are also concerned about the quality of the school system in the city and the work force it will be producing, he said.

In addition, Rooney said his group’s survey showed that of the business that plan to expand, 28% plan to relocate outside the Valley. For that reason, the Economic Alliance has helped create a 16-point plan to spur business growth in the Valley that includes a team to focus on reducing business flight.

For his part, Riordan pointed to the work of his own Administration’s business-retention team, which he said has worked with nearly 100 companies to retain 17,000 jobs.

In predicting a promising future for business, Riordan stressed the city’s efforts to hire additional police officers to reduce crime, thereby attracting more businesses and tourists to Los Angeles.

Said the mayor: “The only thing we have to fear is pessimism.”