Drop in Child Abuse Statistics Puzzles Officials

By LISA RICHARDSON

Jan. 2, 1996 12 AM PT

TIMES STAFF WRITER

According to the numbers, child abuse is on the wane in Orange County. But far from pleasing social services officials and child advocates, the diminishing incidence of reports has many people worried because no one believes that abuse is actually declining.

The statistics tell a baffling story. Calls to the Child Abuse Registry dropped rather than rose, for the first time in 10 years, from November 1994 to November 1995. Even more perplexing, Orangewood Children’s Home in Orange, the always-overcrowded shelter for abused and neglected children, suddenly has room to spare.

At the end of 1994, the registry handled 529 more calls of suspected abuse. The dip in calls to the registry, however, which takes reports of suspected abuse from anyone, does not puzzle officials so much as the dip in attendance at Orangewood, which is considered to be a stronger indicator of actual abuse in the county.

Orangewood, although still near capacity, in 1995 experienced the first decline in population since 1991. “We’ve observed it and we’re trying to figure it out, and we’re going through the usual systems to see if there is something we should be concerned about,” said Bob Theemling, deputy director of the Social Services Agency’s Children’s Services department.

Complicating the task of analyzing the falling numbers is that the reporting of abuse is inherently erratic. Usually, however, reporting cycles are somewhat in sync with the school year, falling in the summer, rising in September and October, dropping again in November and picking up again by the first of March. Spring brings a boom in abuse reports.

“That’s been our typical pattern since the mid-’70s,” Theemling said.

Also, because 1994 saw both reports and the number of children taken into custody spike up sharply, it is possible that 1994 was the anomaly, not 1995.

When 1994 statistics are removed from the calculations, the data for 1995 are less unusual than they seem at first glance. Rather than showing attendance at Orangewood dipping, the numbers would show an increase in attendance from 1993 to 1995, if 1994 were not considered.

“We do know that last year was an abnormally high year, and we were worried that last year was setting a new trend,” Theemling said. “We wondered if every year would follow 1994, which would put us in a lot of new trouble.”

So Theemling and other officials are pondering a number of possible explanations for the drop in reports. The phenomenon will likely be explained by a combination of factors, they believe.

“We’ve been trying to chase down different theories, and so far there’s no single theory that’s panned out,” Theemling said. “But . . . there’s nothing that leads us to believe there’s a problem in the community in terms of providing reports or reporting suspected abuse.”

One theory the department researched was whether the implementation of Cal-Optima, the county’s new insurance provider for people on Medi-Cal, somehow changed medical practices in reporting abuse.

Under state law, health care providers must report abuse to Social Services, and the agency had wondered if the new organization’s reporting systems were effective.

“We thought that maybe there was a change in policy associated with Cal-Optima that might cause reports from medical professionals or testing they don’t do anymore, but they didn’t do anything different,” Theemling said with a sigh.

Some officials wonder whether the bankruptcy is responsible, but any correlation between the county’s financial disaster and fewer abuse reports, they say, is not obvious. Children’s Services, which handles abuse reports, was left largely intact while other areas of the Social Services Agency were cut to balance the county budget.

If the bankruptcy’s deep cut into the agency is not solely or even primarily to blame, other, more subtle events--both positive and negative--may be contributing factors.

Earlier this year, social workers became personally liable for the removal of a child from parental custody. Previously, the agency bore the responsibility.

“There is some speculation that the legislation that went into effect this year related to social worker liability has an effect on reporting,” said Gene Howard, the former director of Children’s Services and the executive director of the Orangewood Children’s Foundation.

That legislation makes social workers personally liable if it is proved that they acted maliciously when removing a child from a parent’s custody. Social workers have worried that the law will encourage parents who are angry over a social worker’s decision to remove a child--no matter how justified the decision--to bring frivolous lawsuits against them.

Howard also speculates that not all the reasons for the drop in reports and admissions to Orangewood are negative.

“If you look at the school-based services project that was implemented three years ago in Santa Ana--one of the highest reporting areas in the county--you see a significant reduction in the number of reports coming from that area,” Howard said.

“Obviously, there’s not a scientific link that says having services in the community will reduce the number of reports that reach the agency, but you could speculate that people are more likely to take advantage of those services before [abuse] becomes a problem.”

Is there a chance that fewer children are being abused?

“I don’t think anybody’s at a place where they can put forth a theory like that,” said Barbara Oliver, executive director of the Orange County Child Abuse Prevention Council. “Our hope would be that more people are educating themselves and disciplining their children in ways that are not violent and abusive. That’s what we hope for every single day that we work, but I don’t think we’ve reached that critical mass yet.”

Whether the drop in reports signals a new trend in adult behavior or indicates just another statistically unusual year may best be determined by the reporting patterns come spring, Howard said.

“We will know if the drop is caused by a combination of these things or is just a weird blip if next spring it goes up the way it always has,” Howard said.

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Social workers and child advocates are uncertain as to why, but in November the average daily population of Orangewood Children’s Home declined to its lowest point since July 1993. The three-year monthly trend:

1992

Nov.: 216

Dec.: 181

1993

Jan.: 206

Feb.: 224

March: 217

April: 232

May: 241

June: 205

July: 166

Aug.: 176