State Primary: Just Playing Out the Clock?

In pro basketball, it’s called “winning ugly.” A team misses easy shots, looks out of sync and commits sloppy turnovers. But it still overpowers the opponent and wins.

Sen. Bob Dole has been winning ugly. And if he outscores Steve Forbes big today in New York, as the experts predict, he’ll have all but wrapped up the game. Then the senator goes on a run of slam-dunks, and the California presidential primary becomes--to use another NBA idiom--”garbage time.”

That is the likely scenario. True, it is a little less likely this morning than it was 24 hours ago, before Forbes’ curious endorsement by former congressman and Buffalo Bills quarterback Jack Kemp. Kemp is popular in Upstate New York and has roots in California. But Forbes now seems too far behind to turn around the game with the signing of a single free agent.

For a long time, this was a winnable contest for any number of Dole opponents, starting with Gov. Pete Wilson, if he hadn’t fouled out early.

Dole’s clumsy play was exemplified last year by his promising the National Rifle Assn. to help try to repeal the popular ban on assault weapons, then backing off the pledge; and also by his soliciting but returning a $1,000 contribution from gay Republicans, then apologizing for the mix-up.

Last month, he stumbled to a win in Iowa but was nipped by Pat Buchanan in New Hampshire. Regardless of the then-punditry, however, Dole left New Hampshire in good position because he had beaten Lamar Alexander and presumably buried Forbes. But he let Forbes back in the game by snubbing Delaware and an Arizona debate, thus permitting the political neophyte to win both states.

Then came South Carolina last Saturday and eight primaries Tuesday, all won by Dole. As often is true of teams winning ugly, Dole’s opponents were weak, and he had “too many weapons”--namely establishment endorsements and political machines.

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But Dole is about out of gas, i.e. money. More precisely, he is near the $37-million spending limit for candidates who accept federal matching funds.

What this means for California--incredibly--is no TV ads. That may well be a first: A front-running candidate competing in this, the most TV-oriented state of all, without any paid television. Or paid radio either.

“We’re not going to have the dough,” says a Dole national strategist. “We have to hold some in reserve just to keep the door open.”

A decent statewide TV buy in California costs roughly $1 million per week.

Dole’s main man in California is Gov. Pete Wilson, who personifies the modern, TV-dependent politician. The governor called an urgent meeting of political advisors last Sunday to plot strategy for a rare campaign without commercials.

“We’re readjusting,” says Dole’s California campaign manager, Marty Wilson (no relation). “We’re assuming there won’t be a traditional air game. We’re looking to have fairly intensive campaigning on the ground.”

The old-fashioned way: Keep moving the candidate around the state, flying into two or three TV markets each day and getting on the local news. The tentative plan is for Dole to begin stumping in California on March 20, the day after the Midwest “Rust Belt” primaries, and camp here through the March 26 election.

The expectation of Dole’s advisors is that by then he will have won enough delegates to clinch the nomination. He’ll be able to ignore the GOP also-rans and bang away at President Clinton--attacking him on welfare, illegal immigration, environmental regulations, defense cutbacks. . . .

But if the game isn’t in the bag and Forbes or Buchanan is making a serious run, expect Dole to spring for TV ads anyway. Later, he can plead sloppy bookkeeping. You don’t worry about paying a fine when you’re playing for the championship.

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One block from the state Capitol, in an old building with window air conditioners, Forbes’ California staffers--all four of them--eagerly await the results of today’s New York primary. The magazine mogul is exempt from spending limits because he’s financing his campaign out of the family fortune. So he has untold millions for TV ads.

But as of Wednesday, Forbes still had not reserved any California TV time. And a decision will not be made on how much--if any--TV to buy until New Yorkers vote. Forbes, say some who know him, is not one to pour more good money into a failing enterprise.

If it’s “garbage time,” Forbes may decide to go slow or even sit it out.

Not so with Buchanan, however. You probably couldn’t keep him off the floor.