Dole’s Pitch to California Is Professional, Not Personal

Bob Dole doesn’t surf.

But does he know California?

As he tours the state this weekend in preparation for Tuesday’s primary, the aged Midwesterner with the dour personality will court the state famous for its youthful experimentation, sunny recreation and zany futurism.

Even Dole’s California backers say it may appear to be a strange coupling. But they promised he would not appeal for votes by pretending to be an overnight Beach Boy.

“I do not intend to have Sen. Dole go roller-blading down the boardwalk in Venice,” said Gov. Pete Wilson, head of Dole’s California campaign. “I don’t think that is what would move . . . Californians. And it shouldn’t. They ought to be interested in what he means to the future of California and the country.”

On that score, Dole’s sales pitch to California is based on his skill as a government tactician and his leadership role on major state issues that have recently passed through Congress--like immigration, trade, welfare reform and defense spending. At the same time, even his friends will stipulate that he is something of a tourist.

“I don’t know that he could tell you the price of milk at a California grocery store, but he could tell you the price of California raisins in Japan,” explained Marty Wilson, director of Dole’s Western campaign. “He is effective and has been effective for California. He has been confronted with and has had to deal with a lot of California issues.”

Dole has visited the state often in his role as a Senate leader--nearly 20 times in 1994, aides say. But it has usually been for private fund-raisers to boost Republican candidates. In terms of knowing California, observers say his relationship is more professional than personal.

Dole aides were hard-pressed to name more than a handful of Californians--beyond his fellow officeholders--who share an acquaintance with the senator. “I’d have to think about that a bit,” said one. “Nothing jumps to mind,” said another.

The senator’s campaign finally produced a list that included three who have served in public office (Wilson, Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren and former California Lt. Gov. Ed Reinecke), two corporate contributors (ex-ARCO chief Lod Cook and Great Western Bank Chairman James F. Montgomery), three Reagan-era political consultants (Stu Spencer, Ken Khachigian and Lyn Nofziger), one former Washington assistant who moved to the state (Joe Reppert) and one longtime friend from Kansas now serving as the GOP county chairman in San Diego (Sam Hartige).

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Unfortunately for Dole, recent presidents have pushed the bar for winning California’s heart higher and higher.

Ronald Reagan, of course, was considered to be the personification of California’s spirit with his bountiful optimism and horseback vacations. The connection was even more pronounced when he was followed in the White House by an Ivy Leaguer--George Bush--who was criticized by California Republicans for treating the state with indifference.

Today, those analysts say Bush paid a high price for not having paid adequate attention to California in his failed 1992 reelection bid. As a result, GOP officials say today that the relationship between the nation’s most populous state and its White House occupant is forever changed.

“Part of the problem is that in the Bush administration, after eight years of Ronald Reagan, there was a bit of an inferiority complex about California and a little bit of resentment, frankly,” said Khachigian, a political strategist who worked with the last three Republican presidents. “Today, I think any president . . . [disregards] California at their own peril.”

Now California voters look to Dole. And some political observers say they will wonder whether there is evidence he would be a better president for California than Bush.

“The model [for Dole] that looks obvious is the Bush model as opposed to the Reagan or the Nixon model or even the Clinton model,” said Gary C. Jacobson, political science professor at UC San Diego. “It could hurt him. . . . It’s hard to think of what he could do that would make Californians think, ‘Ah, he’s one of us.’ ”

Dole’s campaign has sought to provide some evidence that the state is a priority for the senator. Dole endorsed two recent Republican-backed California ballot initiatives. In 1994, he spoke in favor of Proposition 187’s plan to stop public benefits for illegal immigrants. And last fall, he joined Wilson in backing the proposed California Civil Rights Initiative, in which voters will decide in November whether to roll back state affirmative-action laws.

Dole has also encouraged rumors that he is considering Lungren as a possible running mate. The candidate himself started the speculation by dropping Lungren’s name last fall. More recently, House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) raised the possibility. But Lungren and most political observers rate the idea as a longshot.

Lungren, who serves with Wilson as a head of Dole’s California campaign, is hardly known outside of the state.

And Wilson, who might have been a top prospect, was dropped from most lists after his own bungled presidential campaign last year caused a sharp drop in his political image.

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Today, officials say Wilson, Dole’s former Senate colleague, is probably the presidential candidate’s closest ally in the state even though the two tangled last year as White House rivals.

Except for a few jabs by Wilson about Dole’s welfare reform plan being too soft and his lack of executive experience, the two kept a respectful distance during their brief competition.

Wilson endorsed Dole shortly after he dropped out of the race. Now, Dole’s California operation is piggybacking on much of the political machinery that Wilson developed during his four successful statewide campaigns.

But a big question remains about whether Wilson’s trail map can translate into a general-election victory for Dole in California. At the moment, the state dangles in front of the GOP campaign like a mechanical rabbit at the dog track.

If the state fell to the Republican presidential nominee, it would be a near fatal blow to President Clinton’s reelection. At the same time, any serious attempt to win such a large state would be expensive, diverting valuable resources from other important battles.

Dole’s ability to connect with California voters over the next few months will play a crucial role in the campaign’s decision about how much effort it should make in the state. State Republican officials insist that there will be a vigorous fight in the state, unlike 1992, when Bush made the area an early concession to Clinton.

“The proof will be how much time he spends here,” said Dole’s California campaign director, Marty Wilson. “He has to force Clinton to campaign here. Clinton . . . thinks he’s got a lock on California because he comes out here 23 times and he drank Chardonnay with Barbra Streisand. He has no more connection with the average Californian than the man in the moon.”