Dole Still Weighing Odds in California

Standing in a trendy country and western dance hall, 250 Wilson administration appointees cheered on cue election night as Sen. Bob Dole pledged over the phone to “fight for every inch of California in November.” But neither the rooters nor the candidate could know for sure whether he’ll be battling or bluffing, charging full speed ahead or doing head fakes.

“I don’t think you know,” Dole had candidly told me in an interview four nights before, when I’d asked how committed he was to competing all-out in California. The Republican nominee-to-be said he realized that Gov. Pete Wilson, Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren and other California politicians had not signed onto his candidacy merely to watch him “pull the plug out here in July or August.”

President George Bush did that four years ago, he noted, and it was a double disaster. First, he recalled, “it hurt a lot of other [GOP] candidates” when the top of the ticket disappeared along with his campaign money. Secondly, it permitted Bill Clinton--with California clinched--the luxury of spending more time and dollars in other states.

Dole understands all that, but he’s in this to win the presidency, not to elect Republican legislators or to help Lungren gear up to run for governor in 1998. True, California offers the biggest block of electoral votes, 20% of the 270 needed to win the White House. However, he trails the president here by 21 points, according to a recent Times poll.

The senator could take the $10-million-plus it would cost to run a long odds, catch-up race in California and spread the money across more competitive states like Michigan, Ohio and New Jersey. Rather than flying for half a day to the Coast, he could spend the time stumping the upper Midwest.

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“I’ve been on battlegrounds before,” Dole told his election night cheering section. “Twenty points is no hill at all. We can climb that hill. I think it’s going to be a dead heat when we leave California [after] the convention. . . . We’ll turn on the full steam, the full throttle. And Bill Clinton will be on his way back to Little Rock.”

More applause and whistles, but not total belief. Political junkies recognize campaign bravado. They know the real battle plan will not be crafted for months.

By the end of the San Diego convention, Dole had told me on his campaign plane, he hopes to be leading in states whose electoral votes total more than 200. Then “we’ll take a hard look at all” the states, he said.

“Clinton’s had a free ride now for about six months,” the senator asserted, predicting that the president’s popularity will fall as he increasingly becomes the GOP target. “We’ve been out beating each other up. With that behind us, [I’ll] be right back in the ballgame.”

The California primary sent Dole mixed signals.

His victory was huge. He won two-thirds of the vote and beat Pat Buchanan by 47 points. Every demographic group supported him big.

But there was a record low turnout, 40% of registered voters. That’s evidence of little enthusiasm. Many reasons can be cited, but one thing’s certain: Fewer than 30% of registered Republicans cared enough about Dole to punch a ballot for him. Even Bush got 30% of the possible vote in the 1992 primary.

Clinton fared little better, however, attracting only about a third of registered Democrats. By comparison, President Ronald Reagan picked up 46% of the possible vote in the 1984 primary.

“I detect passive disgust by the voters,” says GOP campaign consultant Sal Russo. “It’s beyond apathy.”

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The Times exit poll reaffirmed what anybody who watches Dole campaign among real people can readily see: his biggest attractions are his “experience” and “leadership.”

At a B-2 bomber plant in Pico Rivera and also at a farmers’ rally outside Fresno, you saw it in their eyes and demeanor--the respect for stature, for a Senate leader who has been through it and prevailed, not only in his personal life but in the national circles of power.

But so far the man is the main message, and people are looking for more.

Dole needs to focus on jobs and the economy, balancing the budget, education and taxes--issues voters consider the most important, the exit poll showed.

He should vow to himself never again to be led by Gov. Wilson into a prison. There’s just something unpresidential about touring San Quentin’s death row and gas chamber, especially if you’re a dour septuagenarian dubbed “the candidate from the crypt.”

Also, those photo-ops on the Mexican border have gotten a bit hackneyed. Dole seemed uncomfortable there.

If he decides to compete in California, Dole doesn’t literally have to fight for “every inch.”