Political Winds Change Course, Dealing Blow to Republican Prospects in Senate

Republican predictions that the 1996 elections would sweep them to a powerful, filibuster-proof majority in the Senate have stalled in the face of political head winds, and Democrats are increasingly hopeful they can whittle away at the current six-vote GOP advantage.

In state after state, Republican prospects have suffered in recent months.

* In Maine, the unexpected retirement of a popular Republican incumbent turned a safe GOP seat into a cat fight between the parties.

* In Illinois, a divisive GOP primary nominated a deeply conservative candidate--the Republican many Democrats thought would be easiest to beat in the battle for an open seat.

* In Georgia, a strong Democratic candidate has given the party a much better chance of retaining the seat held by Democrat Sam Nunn, who is retiring. Republicans initially viewed the open seat as a certain win for them.

Each development has dimmed Republican hopes of adding enough seats to increase the GOP’s 53-47 advantage to the 60-vote mark needed to overcome Democratic filibusters that stalled much of the Republican congressional agenda over the last year. A few optimistic Democrats are even talking about being able to retake control of the chamber.

All this marks a major shift from the expectation of just a few months ago, when GOP ambitions flourished.

Early in 1995, two Democratic senators crossed party lines to join the GOP, swelling the party’s number of Senate seats to 54. A stampede of Democratic senators--most of them from the South, a region of growing Republican strength--announced they will not seek reelection, creating a host of new GOP opportunities. President Clinton’s approval ratings had stalled below 50%, and Democrats seemed to be on the run.

“In 1995, as the retirements were coming through, most people were thinking about the number 40--can the Democrats operate with 40 senators in the Senate?” said Donald Foley, who until recently was executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Now, however, for Republicans to reach the 60-vote threshold in the Senate “would clearly be a tall order,” conceded Gordon Hensley, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

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The Cook Political Report, an independent analysis of national politics, now lists four of the 18 Republican-held seats to be contested this fall as tossups.

The trend lines are perhaps bleaker. A recent nationwide poll by the Pew Research Center found that for the first time since the GOP won control of Congress in 1994, more voters are inclined to choose Democratic congressional candidates than lean toward Republicans.

In the view of some Democratic optimists, the January special election in Oregon, in which Democrat Ron Wyden narrowly won the seat formerly held by Republican Sen. Bob Packwood, could indicate what lies ahead in the fall.

Most observers, however, say such predictions are based more on hope than reality. The Cook report lists seven of the 15 Democratic seats as tossups, and two others “leaning Republican.”

Democrats “are in better shape,” said Stuart Rothenberg, another independent political analyst. “But talk about a Democratic takeover in the Senate takes some crumbs and turns them into a banquet.”

Most analysts are cautious about predicting the outcome of Senate elections this early. Balloting is seven months away and most states have not even had their congressional primaries. Moreover, the last seven months are a testament to how quickly a party’s political fortunes can change.

But this year’s Senate campaigns clearly will include a colorful patchwork of close contests. One-third of the Senate posts are up for grabs, including an unprecedented 13 races in which the incumbent is not running.

Senate veterans such as Jesse Helms (R-N.C.), the conservative icon, and 93-year-old Strom Thurmond (R-S.C.) could face the toughest challenges of their careers.

Several campaigns will devour vast sums of money, with Massachusetts perhaps leading the way as Democratic Sen. John Kerry struggles to keep his seat from Republican Gov. William F. Weld.

And interest in Texas’ Senate contest increased last week when the Democratic nomination was won by Victor Morales, a high school civics teacher who captured the public fancy by barnstorming the state in his pickup. Although Republican incumbent Phil Gramm remains the favorite, Morales’ “everyman” candidacy introduces an uncertain element to the race.

The string of political blows to Senate Republicans began in September, when Packwood resigned amid scandal and the special election that followed delivered the seat to Wyden.

That closed the gap between the parties to 53-47--and did not bode well for Republicans’ prospects of retaining the state’s other Senate seat this November when venerable Republican Mark O. Hatfield retires. That race is currently considered a tossup.

Democrats got another unexpected boost in January when Sen. William S. Cohen (R-Me.), considered a sure thing for reelection, stunned colleagues by announcing he will not seek another term. Now the race is one of the nation’s most competitive.

The Illinois GOP primary in March produced a surprise of another sort: Al Salvi, a conservative Republican who had galvanized the religious right and other social-issue activists, upset Lt. Gov. Bob Kustra, the moderate Republican who had the endorsement of the state’s GOP establishment and had been considered the clear front-runner.

Some Democrats say the upset helps their nominee, Rep. Richard J. Durbin. They argue that it will be easier for Durbin to portray Salvi as an extremist out of step with Illinois voters, who traditionally have favored moderate Republicans in the Kustra mold.

“It’s definitely increased our chances,” said Gary LaPaille, chairman of the Illinois Democratic Party. “Now we have [an opponent] who is really out of touch on a lot of issues.”

Durbin himself shied away from that assessment, saying he could not afford to underestimate Salvi’s power to mobilize the conservative grass-roots. And GOP strategists argue that Salvi will prove to be a stronger candidate than Kustra, who ran what was regarded as a lackluster primary campaign.

Divisive intraparty battles loom in other states as well, with GOP primaries pitting Republican moderates against conservatives. Democrats hope those potentially bitter fights will leave the Republican nominee weakened.

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In Virginia, for example, the GOP is deeply divided in a fight between challenger James C. Miller III, a conservative former aide to ex-President Ronald Reagan, and incumbent Sen. John W. Warner, the more moderate Republican who alienated many in his party in 1994 when he opposed right-wing hero Oliver North’s candidacy for the state’s other Senate seat.

In New Jersey, Rep. Dick Zimmer (R-N.J.), a moderate who is leading the GOP field for an open Senate seat, is also facing a messy challenge from the right.

“Republicans are acting like Democrats usually do,” said Steve Jarding, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “They are beating each other up in primaries.”

In other states, Democrats are defying expectations and running more competitive races than many analysts once thought possible. GOP political consultant Eddie Mahe cited Georgia as a prime example.

When Nunn announced in October that he will not seek reelection, conventional wisdom whisked the seat quickly into the Republican column. But Democrats now seem to have a fighting chance with the candidacy of former Georgia Secretary of State Max Cleland, the head of the Veterans’ Administration who lost both legs and an arm in Vietnam. “He is just really strong and well thought of,” Mahe said.

Giving a boost to the party as a whole, Clinton’s approval ratings are far stronger than anyone imagined possible a year ago. A Pew center survey released this month found the public’s approval of Clinton’s performance at 55%--higher than at any time since February 1993.

The same survey found that the proportion of people who intended to vote for Democratic candidates for Congress had risen to 49%, while support for GOP candidates was at 44%. That not only was the first time in more than three years that Democrats drew more support than Republicans in the center’s poll, it also marked the third consecutive survey in which support for Republican candidates had dropped.

Mahe says the GOP faces a big challenge if it is to recapture momentum and make big gains in the Senate.

“People who continue to be frustrated, distressed, disappointed or upset with government do not now see having more Republicans in Congress as an automatic resolution of their problem,” he said.