LOTTERY : Luck of the Draw : Making the Right Pick Could Depend More on Where One Eats Brunch Than on Any Scouting Report or Medical Chart

So, what’s the big mystery?

You go to New York, eat Sunday brunch at the Stage Deli in Manhattan and make the 40-minute drive under the Hudson River via the Lincoln Tunnel to New Jersey. Stop when you get to Secaucus, home of NBA Entertainment and its sound-stage studio. The priest will meet you there.

The rest will take care of itself. The No. 1 pick in the pro basketball lottery will be yours.

If that fails, hire Dave Twardzik.

And if all that fails, you will probably have to rely on silly, superstitious things to make the right choice when you pick second or sixth or 10th or wherever. Scouting reports. Postseason workouts. Medical charts.

So it goes with the lottery, in which the teams that put on a bad show during the season (or were fortunate in a trade) try to put on a good show. Philadelphia 76ers, c’mon down!

Thousands of dollars in travel costs and accommodations to do in person for TV, during halftime of a playoff game, what could be done with a conference call. There’s even a rehearsal for all those on stage, although history shows that master of ceremonies David Stern doesn’t practice the names of the participants. He once showed the Timberwolves’ logo and announced to the audience that the pick went to the Minnesota North Stars.

He wasn’t the only one who has struggled in the first 11 episodes. Consider the five who shouldn’t even be allowed to play Scratch Off:

1. Phoenix Suns.

Surprised?

For all their success in other areas, no one has wasted the lottery like the Suns, who have had three top-seven picks and come away with William Bedford, Armon Gilliam and Tim Perry. Gilliam at least had some talent but was shipped to Charlotte about a month into his third season because management didn’t think it was asking too much for him to hit the floor for a loose ball every month or two. Perry was a disaster for three seasons and good enough his fourth that the 76ers took him as part of the Charles Barkley deal. Of course, compared to Bedford, he was an all-star.

2. Sacramento Kings.

No one has made more trips (nine), although the Clippers would tie if not for having traded their spot in 1986. No one made a worse No. 1 overall pick (Pervis Ellison). No one else drafted Kenny Smith, ahead of hometown star Kevin Johnson, then traded him 2 1/2 seasons later, or Joe Kleine or current bench warmer Lionel Simmons or Bobby Hurley. Along the way, they also took marginal players (Billy Owens and Walt Williams) and an injured player (Corliss Williamson).

They are able to avoid the cellar because Smith, Williams and Owens are at least contributors, in Sacramento or elsewhere, the jury is still out on Williamson, and the 1994 pick, Brian Grant, has an encouraging future at power forward.

3. Atlanta Hawks.

They’re bad with some help, pathetic on their own.

Jon Koncak came in 1985 and left 10 seasons later without having made a positive impression on anyone besides the bank teller. Rumeal Robinson came in ’90 and made his only contribution by leaving--Mookie Blaylock came in return. Adam Keefe came in ’92 and flashed occasional skills, but waited until he was shipped to Utah to be decent on a consistent basis.

The only thing the Hawks have to show from the lottery is Stacey Augmon, in 1991. That pick came from the Clippers as part of the Doc Rivers deal.

4. Clippers.

Keep in mind that their draft history is not nearly as bad as their history of keeping players. Danny Manning is a former all-star, Benoit Benjamin remains gelatinous but a starting center nonetheless, and Charles Smith, drafted by the 76ers but for the Clippers, is competent.

On the other hand: Reggie Williams, Bo Kimble and Danny Ferry. Now Lamond Murray heads into his make-or-break third season.

5. Minnesota Timberwolves.

As if wasting lottery picks on Felton Spencer and Luc Longley isn’t bad enough, try doing it in consecutive years. Then again, anyone notice the starting centers for two of the remaining playoff teams? Now let’s see someone justify Donyell Marshall at No. 4 in 1994, something beyond, “He’s Golden State’s problem now.”

Last season’s first-rounder, Kevin Garnett, is a keeper. Isaiah Rider is a talent, but also a pain. They had 3 1/2 seasons of the same thing from Christian Laettner before deciding to cut the losses and trade him to Atlanta.

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And then there are the five who should go straight to Las Vegas. Sometimes they are lucky, sometimes they are good at making the picks, and sometimes they are both:

1. Orlando Magic.

Pat Williams, currently the general manager, started this thing about the Stage Deli. In 1992, he ate there before the lottery, and the Magic got the No. 1 pick and Shaquille O’Neal. In 1993, despite having the best record among the participants and a 1-in-66 chance for the top spot, he went back to the same restaurant and left town with the same result: No. 1, which became Chris Webber and the trade that landed Penny Hardaway. So impressed was Milwaukee Coach and General Manager Mike Dunleavy that he went to the Stage Deli in 1994 . . . and got No. 1 and Glenn Robinson.

The Magic, which also took Dennis Scott with the fourth pick in 1990, is the only two-time winner of the lottery. Do we hear three? If the Warriors draw first, second or third when everyone gathers again in Secaucus on Sunday, the pick goes to Orlando because of a previous trade. Golden State has only a 1.18% chance of getting No. 1 this time, but this is the Magic.

2. Charlotte Hornets.

Twardzik joined the Hornets in 1990 as director of scouting. The next year, they went into the lottery tied for the fourth-best record among the participants, then jumped to No. 1, resulting in Larry Johnson. No wonder he was promoted to director of player personnel a few months later.

In 1992, they tied for the eighth-best mark, then drew No. 2 and got Alonzo Mourning. Kendall Gill was already on board from a previous lottery.

The Hornets had this thing down so well that they even knew when not to beat the odds--their ’94 pick belonged to Seattle because of a trade and ended up at No. 11.

“I’m a firm believer in the fairness of the process,” Twardzik says.

Imagine that.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers.

They have twice ridden other people’s misery to glory: in 1986, when Roy Hinson went to the 76ers hours before the draft for the No. 1 pick that would become Brad Daugherty. And in 1996, when Mark Price was traded for the Bullets’ first-round selection; he played seven games and Washington made the lottery, so the Cavaliers will be the only team happy to be on that stage today.

Their own picks were just as successful: Kevin Johnson in 1987, although he became expendable with Price around, and Terrell Brandon at No. 11 in 1991, after Owens, Longley, Mark Macon and Brian Williams had been chosen.

San Antonio Spurs.

Two picks--one superstar and one standout.

The No. 1 selection in 1987 was worth David Robinson. No. 3 in 1989, Sean Elliott. That Elliott and Miami’s Glen Rice were the only keepers was no simple task, considering that was the lottery that also included Ellison, Ferry, J.R. Reid, Stacey King, George McCloud, Randy White and Tom Hammonds. Think of all the ways the Spurs could have gone wrong.

5. Golden State Warriors.

OK, so they took Chris Washburn with the third pick in 1986. But the Warriors also got Chris Mullin at No. 7, and he became the second-best player, behind Patrick Ewing, from the lottery class of ’85. They eventually blew it by trading Mitch Richmond for Owens, but Richmond came with the fifth pick in 1988, one spot after Chris Morris, and was a feared offensive weapon before being dealt.

Tyrone Hill lasted to No. 11 in 1990, but became an all-star and one of the game’s best rebounders before an auto accident ruined his ‘95-96 season. Which would have been fine except the success came in Cleveland, after the Warriors dealt him to clear cap room for Webber in 1993, the selection Orlando made for Golden State so the Magic could do the Penny Hardaway deal.

Then, last May 10, Twardzik became general manager. Eleven days later, he was on stage in Secaucus. Representing the Warriors backstage for the actual lottery process, before it’s played out in smoother fashion soon after for the cameras, was Father Peter Colapietro from Holy Cross Church in New York, a close family friend of owner Chris Cohan. As if this wasn’t a done deal--a priest and Twardzik working together.

All the Warriors did was go in with a 9.4% chance at No. 1, fifth best, and then jump to No. 1. Their reward was Joe Smith.

Golden State is back again this time around and for a change doesn’t want to climb the ladder, not with Orlando waiting to inherit No. 1, 2 or 3. Maybe the Magic has a chance--Twardzik is staying home.

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Great Leftovers

Teams without lottery picks still have exceptional players available. A look at 10 prominent players who weren’t picked in the lottery:

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Player Year Selected Karl Malone 1985 No. 13 Reggie Miller 1987 No. 11 Mark Price 1986 No. 25 Dennis Rodman 1986 No. 27 Horace Grant 1987 No. 10 Shawn Kemp 1989 No. 17 Tim Hardaway 1989 No. 14 Joe Dumars 1985 No. 18 Detlef Schrempf 1985 No. 8 Clifford Robinson 1989 No. 36

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