Mano a Mano : A Look at the Recipes for Victory as Chavez and De La Hoya Square Off Tonight in Las Vegas

It may all come down to one punch.

And one step backward.

The question is, who will take that step?

Sometime in the first or second round, Julio Cesar Chavez, one of boxing’s most devastating body punchers, will land a left hook to the kidney of Oscar De La Hoya, or a right hand to the ribs. It will be Chavez’s best punch, a punch unlike any De La Hoya has felt in his 21 previous professional fights.

Then, one of two things will happen:

--A slight smile will cross De La Hoya’s face as he realizes that Chavez, this man he once idolized, is really a 33-year-old has-been, a tarnished legend who can’t hurt the 23-year-old De La Hoya. So De La Hoya will move forward and Chavez will be forced to take a step backward and the psychological edge will have been established.

--Or, Chavez’s punch will send shivers through De La Hoya. A look of surprise will cross his face. He will know that this aging champion still has the power to destroy him. He will know that all of Chavez’s talk in recent weeks of regaining his previous form was not merely bravado.

Then it will be De La Hoya taking a step backward. And it will be Chavez who has gained the psychological edge.

Either way, if Chavez hopes to win, he must take the lead early, must be the aggressor, must find out how much he truly has left, must learn if the months of training have given him back the natural talent he has squandered in recent years.

“If [De La Hoya] thinks I am going to go in like a little dog and follow him around, he is wrong,” Chavez said. “I am the champion. He has to come to me.”

Don’t you believe it. Chavez must go after De La Hoya. There is no alternative.

De La Hoya has a 10-year age advantage, a four-inch height advantage and a five-inch reach advantage over Chavez. De La Hoya has the younger, faster body, better suited to withstand temperatures that may be in the high 90s at fight time.

What Chavez must do is get inside that long reach and work the body, wear De La Hoya down. That will drain from De La Hoya his natural advantages and lower those long arms.

It won’t be easy.

De La Hoya is smart, he has brilliant speed and a devastating punch.

Chavez will get hit hard and often as he tries to wade in. But he must take the risk or face sure defeat.

In his sparring sessions, Chavez has been working on, among other things, the rope-a-dope.

Bad idea.

Chavez would look like the dope if he employed this strategy. De La Hoya isn’t George Foreman, punching himself out against Muhammad Ali.

In fact, De La Hoya would like nothing better than to trap Chavez on the ropes and punish him with his quick hands and blinding speed. Chavez no longer has the ability to withstand such an attack from such a physically superior opponent in such strength-draining heat.

There is one other strategy that Chavez could try. He could attempt to draw De La Hoya out of his game plan, which is to outbox Chavez, and lure him into a slugfest.

“If Oscar boxes, he is going to win. If he tries to slug it out, Julio will win,” said Sugar Ray Leonard, the master boxer, who faced similar challenges in his career.

Leonard stuck to his game plan for the most part, and De La Hoya, with Jesus Rivero in his corner, figures to do the same.

No, the only way for Chavez to change De La Hoya’s thinking, slow him down and nullify all of his natural gifts is with devastating body punches.

That is what Chavez does best.

That is what he must do tonight.

If he still can.

Prediction: If Chavez can get inside, he has a chance to win on a TKO by the 11th or 12th round. If not, he’ll be gone by the fifth.

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THE FACTS

Who: Julio Cesar Chavez (champion) vs. Oscar De La Hoya (challenger).

What: World Boxing Council super-lightweight title.

When: Tonight, 8:30 (approximately).

Where: Caesars Palace, Las Vegas.

TV: Closed-circuit only. See TV-Radio column, C2.

Radio: Round-by-round reports, KNX (1070).

Tale of the Tape

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Chavez DeLaHoya Record 97-1-1 21-0 Knockouts 79 19 Age 33 23 Weight 139 139 Height 5-7 5-11 Reach 68 73 Chest (normal) 37 37 Chest (expanded) 39 39 Biceps 13 13 1/2 Forearm 11 11 Waist 31 31 Thigh 20 21 Calf 13 1/2 13 1/2 Neck 16 1/2 15 Wrist 6 7 Fist 11 9

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