Belmont Will Show if Baffert Has Star to Run Off-Broadway

The last time Bob Baffert was in New York, luck wasn’t in his suitcase. He wasn’t mugged in Central Park or run over by one of the City’s Finest on horseback; the former quarter horse trainer’s misfortune was running Letthebighossroll, one of his first thoroughbreds, in the 1991 Metropolitan Handicap.

“It was a $500,000 race, so I figured it was worth a shot,” Baffert said. “The racing office [at Belmont Park] told me that only five horses were going to run, so I thought we had a great chance. When we showed up, we had 13 horses to beat. We got in with 107 pounds, but my jockey, Eddie Delahoussaye, weighed about 118. Then we drew the No. 14 post. The only thing my horse did right was get in the gate. He didn’t give me a chance to cheer once.”

Baffert hired a jockey who could do the 107 pounds, and Letthebighossroll finished 10th.

“By the time he got to wherever he was going, the ground was chewed up by the horses that had already been there,” Baffert said.

It should be better today, when Baffert saddles Cavonnier in the 128th running of the Belmont Stakes. At least it looks better on paper. Cavonnier, beaten by a nose by Grindstone in the Kentucky Derby after he was accidentally struck in the face by the whip of a rival jockey, and then a flat fourth in the Preakness two weeks later, has had three weeks to recover from Pimlico and has been training brilliantly. The Belmont linemaker has made the California-bred gelding a lukewarm 3-1 favorite in a 15-horse field.

A California-bred hasn’t won the Belmont since Africander in 1903, and only one gelding--Creme Fraiche in 1985--has won the race, but Cavonnier doesn’t know that and Baffert will be the last to tell him. Cavonnier told Baffert something the other day, when he worked six furlongs in a blistering 1:11.

After running a hard 1 1/4 miles in the Derby and barely missing at the wire, Cavonnier didn’t need any workouts for the Preakness, but there were other signs that the Santa Anita Derby winner wouldn’t be sharp.

“He was all drawn up,” Baffert said. “Then when we first got to Pimlico, the heat just knocked him out. For two days, he wouldn’t even come to the front of his stall. But I don’t think anybody was going to beat Louis Quatorze, anyway. Even if my horse had run his race, probably the best we could have done was third.”

This is not the most distinguished of Belmonts, yet there are some scenarios that might at least play off-Broadway. For instance:

--Will trainer Nick Zito, a local favorite, finally win his hometown race after running second four times? Zito’s hopes are Louis Quatorze and Saratoga Dandy.

--Will trainer Wayne Lukas, whose record six-race Triple Crown winning streak was broken in the Preakness, win his third consecutive Belmont? Lukas, who won with Tabasco Cat in 1994 and Thunder Gulch last year, is running Prince Of Thieves and the enigmatic Editor’s Note.

--Can My Flag become the third filly--and the first in 91 years--to win the Belmont? “Shug [McGaughey] wouldn’t be running her if he didn’t think she had a chance to win,” Baffert said, and Lukas, who won a Derby with the filly Winning Colors, is another trainer who says he thinks My Flag belongs.

The tipoff, though, on the remnants of the 3-year-old crop is that My Flag, who ran a bad fifth in the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs on May 3, is only 6-1 on the morning line. Perhaps she deserves it on breeding alone. Her dam, the undefeated Personal Ensign, won all 10 of her starts at Belmont Park; and the sire, Easy Goer, was eight for 10 at the track and won the 1 1/2-mile Belmont in 1989.

“She’s already won a Breeders’ Cup race, one other Grade I and she’s earned $1 million,” McGaughey said from his barn at Belmont. “So what would we accomplish if we ran her one more time against fillies, in the Mother Goose [on June 22]? As long as I’m going to take her over there--and assuming she comes out of the race OK--what do we have to lose?”

Dinny Phipps, the son of Ogden Phipps, who races My Flag, was also at the barn. When McGaughey was asked if there might be more mixed-company competition for My Flag, such as the Travers this summer at Saratoga, the younger Phipps, standing toward the back, just shook his head.

“The Alababa,” Phipps finally said. That would be the Alabama Stakes, also at Saratoga in August. Only fillies need apply.

Horse Racing Notes

A call to three of the biggest hotels in downtown Louisville, Ky., brought word that they’re all sold out the weekend of Oct. 26, which is the date of the Breeders’ Cup races. “Why is that?” the hotels were asked. “The Breeders’ Cup,” they all said. Although the replacement track for Woodbine is not supposed to be announced until later this month, Churchill Downs would appear to be the choice. Otherwise, why would the Breeders’ Cup have reserved all the rooms in Louisville? A hotel not far from Santa Anita said that it had plenty of room. Woodbine lost the Breeders’ Cup date because of labor unrest in the Toronto area.

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Belmont Stakes

Field for today’s 128th Belmont Stakes:

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P PHorse Jockey Odds 1. a-Saratoga Dandy Davis 9-2 2. Natural Selection Romero 20-1 3. South Salem Krone 30-1 4. f-Rocket Flash Castillo 20-1 5. Jamies First Punch Velazquez 10-1 6. Prince Of Thieves Bailey 8-1 7. Editor’s Note Douglas 8-1 8. Appealing Skier Migliore 15-1 9. My Flag Smith 6-1 10. f-Traffic Circle Chavez 20-1 11. In Contention Bravo 30-1 12. a-Louis Quatorze Day 9-2 13. Skip Away Santos 6-1 14. Cavonnier McCarron 3-1 15. f-Secreto De Estado Velasquez 20-1

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a-entry

f-mutuel field

Weights: My Flag 121 pounds, others 126 pounds. Distance: 1 1/2 miles. Purse: $734,800 if 15 start. First place: $440,880. Post time: 2:32 p.m. PDT.

TV: Channel 7.

Triple Crown Ratings

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No. Horse Starts 1 2 3 Earnings 1. Louis Quatorze 10 4 3 0 749,120 2. Cavonnier 15 6 3 2 1,139,597 3. Skip Away 12 3 4 2 728,320 4. Editor’s Note 16 3 4 3 526,014 5. Unbridled’s Song 9 4 3 0 1,253,000 6. Prince Of Thieves 8 2 1 1 242,080 7. Honour And Glory 10 5 2 1 876,102 8. Halo Sunshine 10 2 2 3 287,525 9. Grindstone 6 3 2 0 1,224,510 10. Jamies First Punch 7 5 1 0 229,040

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Advisory panel for The Times’ Triple Crown Ratings: Racing historian Jim Bolus; Tom Durkin, track announcer in New York and Florida; and Chris Lincoln, racing telecaster for ESPN.