These Bills Are Definitely Due

Meteorologist Ed Mahoney relayed the information from the city’s very own chief forecaster:

“While he can only give you the average temperature here each year for Jan. 12, the date for this year’s AFC championship game--24 degrees--he can make this prediction: You’re wrong picking Buffalo to make it to the Super Bowl.”

No, not for a second do the locals want to consider yet another death march to the Super Bowl only to be beaten up in Jay Leno or David Letterman’s monologue for another year.

“Super Bowl? I don’t think people want to get all worked up about this,” said Linda Soltis, director of communications for the city’s chamber of commerce, the organization designed to get people all worked up.

Deal with it, Buffalo. Your aging heroes will still have their hurrah, secure the frozen-tundra advantage for the AFC championship game, then snap the NFC’s 12-game stranglehold with a victory in Super Bowl XXXI in New Orleans.

“It would be the sports story of the 20th Century if this team came back to win, wouldn’t it?” said Ralph Wilson, the team’s only owner in its 37-year history. “But oh gosh, no, I can’t predict it’s going to happen. The other night in a span of five minutes, two of our defensive linemen limped off the field and without those two guys we don’t stop anybody, so no, I can’t predict.”

No such restrictions here: Buffalo outclasses the AFC because of Wade Phillips’ defense, quarterback Jim Kelly’s efficiency and because Marty Schottenheimer still coaches Kansas City.

The Bills led the NFL in sacks a year ago, have added middle linebacker Chris Spielman to deal with the run-oriented teams in the AFC East and will field their best receiving corps since reaching their first Super Bowl in 1991.

The battle for home-field advantage may very well mean everything in the AFC, but Kansas City concludes the regular season in Buffalo: Advantage Bills.

“If we get that far--to the AFC championship game--I’ll buy all the buffalo wings you can eat,” Wilson said. “But right now that’s crazy talk.”

No more ridiculous than last season, when Indianapolis played Pittsburgh for the AFC championship. The Steelers won with Neil O’Donnell demonstrating that a team doesn’t have to have a quarterback to win. But O’Donnell has moved on to the New York Jets and Pittsburgh will start Jim Miller this season. Even O’Donnell was never that bad.

“On paper we have put together the best team we could and we have spent a tremendous amount of money,” Wilson said. “Second to Dallas in money spent, they tell me, although I don’t know if that’s a compliment. And we have kept our core of great players together.

“It would be great to win the Super Bowl, especially because [Coach] Marv Levy is 71 and has gone through so much with his illness [prostate cancer]. But that may be reaching a little too far. I’ll say this: We’ve got the team that--if the breaks come our way--we could win a Super Bowl, but that requires a lot of good bounces.”

It also requires a complete breakdown in the way they play football in the NFC. Early indications are that might already be happening in Dallas and San Francisco, leaving only Green Bay as the team to beat.

The Cowboys couldn’t win without Emmitt Smith a few years ago as he held out for a new contract and now they will see if they can triumph without Troy Aikman’s top two targets: wide receiver Michael Irvin and tight end Jay Novacek. The pair caught 15 of the 16 touchdown passes thrown by Aikman a year ago, and although Irvin will return after serving a five-game suspension, there is some doubt that Novacek will recover from a back injury.

“I know Green Bay is looking at it like, ‘Dallas, Dallas, Dallas,’ ” Aikman said. “But there’s no guarantee we’re going to be there in January.”

Not even a mention of San Francisco. The 49ers still have quarterback Steve Young, but for how long? A year ago he sat out five games because of injury, and he went down seven times this exhibition season behind an offensive line of lugs. The 49ers still do not have a Ricky Watters-type running back threat on first and second downs, and instead of starting the likes of Deion Sanders, Eric Wright or Eric Davis at cornerback, they open with Stiffs ‘R Us in Marquez Pope and Tyronne Drakeford.

Dallas still wins the NFC East title in a breeze and San Francisco gets no challenge in the NFC West, but they have dropped back to the Pack, making it a three-team tournament for postseason celebrations. Green Bay’s test is to stay even with the Cowboys and 49ers in the battle for home-field playoff advantage against the toughest division in football--the NFC Central.

The Packers have won 13 of their last 14 games in Lambeau Field, which has a grass surface. But this season they play in four domes on the road, and will also be trying to snap a six-game losing streak to the Cowboys in a Monday night game at Dallas on Nov. 18.

Dallas closes the season in a cakewalk against the New York Giants, Washington Redskins, St. Louis Cardinals, New England Patriots and the Redskins again. But a team that experiences bad luck at the start of a season usually has no luck by season’s end, thereby setting up a Green Bay-San Francisco NFC championship game with the Packers gaining a giddy victory and a just-happy-to-be-here trip to Super Bowl XXXI.

Buffalo 27, Green Bay 24.

“We have an owner who is 77 and who has given us everything we need to be successful,” said John Butler, Buffalo general manager. “Wouldn’t it be neat to give him a Super Bowl victory?”

Other highlights and lowlights in store for us:

BEST ROUND-ROBIN TOURNAMENT

Dallas at San Francisco, Nov. 10; San Francisco at Green Bay, Oct. 14, and Green Bay at Dallas, Nov. 18. The overall winner probably will get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Edge to Dallas because the Cowboys get both the 49ers and Packers after Irvin returns from suspension, the Packers have lost six in a row to the Cowboys, and Sanders will get a chance to dominate both sides of the ball against the 49ers.

WORST 60 MINUTES OF FOOTBALL

Tampa Bay at Arizona, Oct. 20. The Buccaneers have Trent Dilfer, a quarterback who couldn’t hit the Atlantic Ocean if he were at water’s edge, and a schedule that begins against teams with a combined record of 55-41. The Cardinals are still owned by Bill Bidwill. Good chance here that 0-6 Buccaneers will play 0-6 Cardinals, and won’t the luxury box owners in Arizona get fired up about that?

BEST ADDITION

New England assistant head coach Bill Belichick. Cleveland had as much success a year ago as Belichick has personality, but the man made Coach Bill Parcells a Super Bowl winner as defensive coordinator for the Giants, and this is a defense that ranked No. 28 a year ago.

WORST SUBTRACTION

Ted Marchibroda. Bill Tobin, the Colts’ general manager, has been hanging around the Irsay family too long. Tobin offered Marchibroda a one-year contract with no raise after he had put the Colts in the playoffs for the first time since 1987. Marchibroda left as Tobin expected, and Lindy Infante was hired to replace him. Do you think Tobin read Infante’s resume, which includes a 24-40 mark as a head coach in the NFL?

BEST FREE-AGENT SIGNING

Chris Spielman, Buffalo. The middle linebacker led Detroit in tackles for eight consecutive years and has been hired to hogtie New England running back Curtis Martin and Indianapolis running back Marshall Faulk--a prerequisite for any team wishing to win the division title. What’s the over-and-under on how many games it will take before Coach Wayne Fontes realizes Spielman is no longer playing on his Lion team?

WORST FREE-AGENT SIGNING

Fred Barnett, Miami. The Dolphins gave the wide receiver a $2.125-million signing bonus in a contract that will pay him an average of $1.7 million a season for the next five years. Barnett then suffered a season-ending knee injury.

MOST AMAZING STATISTIC

This involves quarterback Jim Everett of New Orleans. Did someone yell, “Duck!”? No, no, no, this is not something negative, which makes it amazing. Everett had a 107.2 quarterback rating during fourth-quarter play last season--the best in the NFL. Smelling salts, please.

BEST NICKNAME

Scott Sisson, Minnesota. When Fuad Reveiz retired, there were lots of tears, which might have something to do with the confidence inspired by his replacement, “Missin’ Sisson.”

BEST LONGSHOT

Joe Nedney, Miami. The Dolphins had one of the premier kickers in the game in Pete Stoyanovich and Nedney jeopardized all human life every time he swung his leg through the ball. Nedney, a 56% field-goal kicker at San Jose State, went through two mini-camps and the first three weeks of training camp not missing a field goal, however, and when Coach Jimmy Johnson realized how little he would have to pay the free agent--$136,000--he shipped Stoyanovich to Kansas City.

BEST FREE-AGENT BUY

Bill Brooks, Washington. Brooks caught 53 passes for 763 yards and scored 11 touchdowns for the Bills last season. The Redskins signed him to be their slot receiver for $200,000, with a $1.25-million signing bonus, and undoubtedly promised him that they would never let Heath Shuler throw the ball.

WORST FREE-AGENT BUYS

Russell Maryland and Larry Brown, Oakland. The Raiders gave the Cowboys’ No. 3 defensive tackle $19 million, including a $4.3-million signing bonus, and the Cowboys’ No. 3 cornerback $12.5 million with a $3.5-million signing bonus. No wonder Raider tickets cost more than any other ticket in the NFL.

BIGGEST ROOKIE BUSTS

Dorian Brew, Miami cornerback and J.C. Price, Carolina defensive tackle.

Brew got a $310,000 signing bonus after being the 18th player picked in Round 3 and then became the highest-drafted player this year to get cut. Lesson learned: Johnson won’t tolerate players who don’t work hard.

How bad was Price? He was the 27th player picked in Round 3 and couldn’t make the second-year team’s roster. It seems the Panthers thought they were getting a 3-4 defensive lineman, but upon his arrival they discovered a paperwork error: They had taken a 4-3 defensive lineman. After letting him sweat a little for show, they sent him home.

BEST ROOKIE FIND

Devin Wyman, New England defensive tackle. Wyman, who left Kentucky State a year early, was the 206th player taken in the draft, and after picking up an $18,000 signing bonus one week into training camp he had earned a starting berth. Wyman bypassed the NFL combine workouts and appeared overweight and out of shape at a later workout. The Patriots took another look shortly before the draft and struck it rich.

BEST TEAM

Dallas. The Cowboys still have the best 22 starting players when they are all injury free and not lost in local nightclubs. Lack of depth, especially along the offensive line, makes them vulnerable over the course of the season, but Jerry Jones could coach this team to an NFC East Division title. Sorry, Jones does coach this team.

WORST TEAM

New York Giants. If George Steinbrenner owned this team, Coach Dan Reeves would have gotten the Billy Martin treatment. Reeves’ penchant for self-destruction, which prompted his departure from Denver, has left him pitted against management, the media and bombastic Giant fans.

The Giants lost six of their final eight last season, had only one pass play of more than 50 yards all season, only two runs for more than 30 yards and the 27th-ranking defense against the run. For repairs, they gave a five-year, $10-million contract to Ron Stone. Sharon Stone maybe, but Ron Stone? Basic instinct, baby, a reserve offensive lineman from the Cowboys.

BEST EX-RAMS

Jerome Bettis, Pittsburgh, and Sean Gilbert, Washington. Both look like studs in early previews. Bettis averaged more than five yards a carry in exhibitions, and Gilbert, who is starting the final year of his contract, has folks talking about Washington being one of the surprise teams of the year. Funny, no one mentioned the Rams.

BEST CHANCE TO BREAK THROUGH

Dan Wilkinson, Cincinnati. The defensive tackle was the first pick in the 1994 draft and after a slow start as a rookie, the 6-foot-5, 313-pounder posted eight sacks last season with no defensive help around him.

BEST CHANCE TO DISAPPEAR

Atlanta’s pass rush. The Falcons had 30 sacks a year ago, but lost 16 with the defections of Chris Doleman to San Francisco and Jumpy Geathers to Denver. They drafted Shannon Brown in the third round to punch up the pass rush, but Brown went down for the season because of a knee injury in training camp.

COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR

Andre Reed, Buffalo. The Bills thought Reed was babying a sore leg as he sat on the sideline for 10 games last year. There were hard feelings and Reed wanted out of Buffalo, but the organization apologized to him during the off-season, after medical reports supported his reluctance to play. The team signed him, he enjoyed his best training camp to date according to observers and will draw more single coverage because of the signing of Quinn Early and the emergence of rookie Eric Moulds.

BEST CHANCE FOR AN EMPTY STADIUM

The Oilers are on their way to Nashville in two or three years but must honor their Astrodome lease for now, which should result in attendance embarrassments. How ‘bout that Dec. 15 playoff implications thriller between the Bengals and the Oilers? Or that Nov. 24 Thanksgiving weekend game against Carolina?

DISAPPEARING PLAYER OF THE YEAR

Disappearing player of the year: Marco Coleman, San Diego. The Chargers were driven to rid themselves of defensive end Leslie O’Neal because of his penchant for criticizing the organization. To replace O’Neal they went after the good soldier in Coleman, who had played for Coach Bobby Ross at Georgia Tech. Coleman may do any number of things better than O’Neal, but he lacks the flash to turn a game as O’Neal did, and will never challenge O’Neal’s ability to pile up the sacks. But he has good character.

HIGHEST-IMPACT ROOKIE

John Mobley, Denver linebacker. Not since the days of Randy Gradishar, Tom Jackson and Bob Swenson has a linebacker excited the Orange faithful as much as this guy. He adds speed to a defense that couldn’t move a year ago, providing John Elway lovers the tantalizing prospect of what might happen if Denver ever gets a defense to match its quarterback’s skills.

LOWEST-IMPACT ROOKIE

Jeff Hartings, Detroit. The Lions, with two first-round draft choices, picked linebacker Reggie Brown and guard Hartings. Represented by the same agent, both held out. Instead of holding tough and negotiating for the players as a package, the agent allowed Brown to sign, leaving Hartings, who had been penciled in as a starter, sitting unsigned.

BEST EMMITT SMITH CLONE

Karim Abdul-Jabbar, Miami. Abdul-Jabbar came to camp hobbling on an ankle hurt at UCLA and then hurt his other ankle. Johnson was ready to make him his Emmitt, but Abdul-Jabbar couldn’t get clear of physical problems until recently, then put on a dazzling show in the Dolphins’ final exhibition game. Irving Spikes might start the opener, but he had better get the family to the game, because they’ll be buying tickets to watch him sit on the bench after that.

ROOKIE QUARTERBACK IN WAITING

Tony Banks, St. Louis. Although he was the 42nd player taken in the draft, scouts now are raving about Banks’ potential as a big-time quarterback. Some of that, of course, has to do with the guy they are comparing him with in St. Louis, Steve Walsh. Georgia Frontiere makes better passes than Walsh, and that’s not good, because the Rams have great deep weapons in Isaac Bruce and rookie Eddie Kennison.

MOST OVERRATED TEAM

Miami. The Dolphins still have Dan Marino, but he has no weapons and a new coach in Johnson with all the time in the world to build a winner. Take away Stoyanovich, cornerback Troy Vincent, defensive end Coleman, linebacker Bryan Cox, running back Kirby and wide receiver Irving Fryar and you have the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Dolphins, however, are toying with the no-huddle offense, which will make them look like the Jaguars trying to imitate the Bills.

MOST UNDERRATED TEAMS

Cincinnati, Seattle and New Orleans.

The Bengals lost their running game before last season began with the knee injury to Ki-Jana Carter, had the worst-ranked defense in the league, had David Shula as coach, and still posted a 7-9 record with five losses by three points.

The Seahawks expect a monster breakout year from wide receiver Joey Galloway, have three of the best defensive tackles in the game and are one great season from quarterback Rick Mirer away from seriously challenging in the AFC West.

New Orleans still has Jim Mora as coach, which makes this contention seem ridiculous, but the Saints went 7-4 down the stretch and play the league’s second-easiest schedule this season.

BEST SHOW OF RESTRAINT

Not one cheap shot here at Barry Switzer.