Proposition 209 Retains Wide-Ranging Support

Proposition 209, the sweeping statewide ballot measure to ban affirmative action in various government programs, continues to enjoy better than 2-to-1 support in Orange County, a Times Orange County Poll has found.

Although support for the measure statewide has softened in recent weeks, Orange County remains solidly behind it, with 60% of all voters in favor and 26% opposed.

Those numbers are even higher among likely voters, a margin of 62% to 24%. The strongest support came from Republicans, backers of GOP nominee Bob Dole and men. But the measure also enjoyed backing in Orange County from about half of all women, Democrats and backers of President Clinton.

“To me, the most interesting thing is this level of support among Democrats and supporters of Bill Clinton,” said Mark Baldassare, who conducted the poll. “That speaks to the risky nature of the strategy lately that begins to throw Proposition 209 into partisan presidential politics. If this is portrayed as a Republican issue, Clinton supporters could abandon it.”

But many promoters of the initiative, including the California Republican Party, hope just the opposite happens. Vowing to spend more than $2 million during the last days of the campaign, they believe the advertising blitz will not only boost Proposition 209 to a substantial victory, but also siphon votes from Clinton.

The poll, a telephone survey of 600 randomly selected registered Orange County voters, was conducted Oct. 19-21. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

A majority (53%) think that affirmative action programs are unfair, and few believe that women or minorities face a lot of discrimination in Orange County. Only one in five say they have been denied job or educational opportunities because of race or gender.

“In some ways, affirmation action does not seem to be an issue that touches most Orange County voters close to where they live,” Baldassare said. “Very few think they have been discriminated against, and relatively few think discrimination is an issue right now.”

Bridget Hewett, 25, a Newport Beach housewife, said she felt like she “shouldn’t even have the right to vote on this.”

“It is a very difficult issue for me, especially being a blond-haired, blue-eyed girl in Newport Beach,” Hewett said. “I haven’t felt a lot of prejudice in my life. . . . But I don’t believe in special privileges to groups or in quotas.”

Proposition 209 supporters are more likely than foes to believe that affirmative action programs are unfair--64% to 33%. The measure’s backers also are less likely than supporters to believe that women and racial and ethnic minorities face at least some discrimination.

The initiative would ban discrimination by state and local governments through the use of quotas or preferences based on race, ethnicity, gender or other such factors in hiring, the awarding of contracts and admission to public colleges and universities. But it would not keep private employers from using affirmative action programs.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Orange County Poll was conducted by Mark Baldassare and Associates. The telephone survey of 600 randomly selected Orange County registered voters was conducted Oct. 19-21 on weekday nights and weekend days. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points. For likely voters in the November election, the error margin is plus or minus 5 percentage points. The sample is statistically weighted to reflect the political party, demographic and geographic distribution of Orange County voters.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Proposition 209 Still a Hit

Orange County voters support Proposition 209 by a ratio of more than 2 to 1, as they have since August. Support lies in voter beliefs that affirmative action programs are unfair--despite the feeling that many think women and ethnic minorities face at least some discrimination. A huge majority report having never experienced discrimination in education or employment opportunities.

* If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 209?

Yes: 60%

No: 26

Don’t know: 14

*

*--*

Don’t Yes No know Men 65% 27% 8% Women 56 25 19 Republicans 68 17 15 Democrats 48 38 14 Vote for Dole 73 13 14 Vote for Clinton 49 39 12

*--*

* Do you think that affirmative action programs in general are:

All voters

Fair: 42%

Unfair: 53

Don’t know: 5

* Do you think that women in Orange County face discrimination in employment and educational opportunities:

All voters

A lot: 10%

Somewhat: 44

Not very much: 20

Not at all: 18

Don’t know: 8

* Do you think that racial and ethnic minorities in Orange County face discrimination in employment and educational opportunities:

*--*

All voters Men Women A lot 15% 12% 17% Somewhat 41 44 39 Not very much 21 25 17 Not at all 16 15 17 Don’t know 7 4 10

*--*

* Do you personally feel that you have ever been denied an employment or educational opportunity because of your race or sex? (If “yes”: Which one--race, gender or both?)

*--*

All voters Men Women Yes, race 8% 14% 3% Yes, gender 7 3 12 Yes, both 4 4 3 No 81 79 82

*--*

Source: Times Orange County Poll