Encouraging News From the Economic Front

Two encouraging reports from the academic world give Orange County reason to look forward with some optimism during the holiday season.

At this time two years ago, stunned Orange County residents were wondering how the county had plunged into the country’s biggest municipal bankruptcy. The worries about the impact on homes, schools and individuals lasted for months. When the Orange County Annual Survey was conducted eight months after the bankruptcy, the financial crisis topped the list of respondents’ concerns.

But this year’s survey produced far different results. The results announced this month--the polling was done in August--showed that crime was the No. 1 worry of Orange County residents. On the upside, however, four out of five people polled said they felt positive about the county’s quality of life, a welcome increase from the less than 70% who felt that way last year.

Another welcome note in the survey, conducted by UC Irvine professor Mark Baldassare and research associate Cheryl Katz, concerned donations to and volunteering for charities. Charitable giving in the county has fluctuated over the years. One study put Orange County residents near the bottom in their gifts to worthy causes and groups. But other studies have indicated that the situation was not all that bad.

The median contribution to charity rose from $177 last year to $253 this year. In a finding that nonprofit groups would be wise to note, Katz said residents who were asked for gifts were more likely to open their wallets and purses. Fewer than half of those making more than $80,000 reported being solicited for donations, Katz said. That is surprising, especially at this time of year, when bell-ringers are easy to find and the mail brings frequent solicitations.

The survey also found considerable skepticism about just what services Orange County charities provide. Those doubts should not be difficult to overcome. Most nonprofit groups do a good job in everything from feeding people to promoting the arts. Explaining their tasks to potential donors could pay dividends.

Optimism about the economy clearly plays a big part in determining how much individuals donate to charity. It also was important in this year’s presidential election. And it is a key factor in residents’ overall feelings about their lives.

The painful recession of the early 1990s thankfully is receding in memory. The county’s emergence from bankruptcy last June has increased optimism. Many government employees lost their jobs and services have been cut as the county attempts to balance the books, but things are looking better.

Consumer confidence is at its highest point in years locally and median household income this year increased, though slightly, for the first time since 1993. That should be encouraging to county business people, who are so important to economic progress.

Another report this month, the annual forecast by the Center for Economic Research at Chapman University, also was upbeat. Chapman’s president, economist James Doti, and the university’s economic center director, Esmael Adibi, predicted that a booming import-export market will help increase the county’s economic growth next year.

Doti reported that about 27,000 jobs were created in Orange County this year, a 2.4% increase that was larger than the national increase for the first time since 1989. The extra jobs also got the county back to where it was before the recession.

The county still faces major problems, from homelessness to the need for more jail space. The battle over the reuse of the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station has threatened unity. But if optimism over the economy and life here can spur cooperative efforts to solve the problems, the county can move forward.