A Number of Priorities for Keeping the Good Times Rolling

With ratings of the county’s economy and quality of life reaching a high point for the 1990s, employment levels rising, and having just been honored as the nation’s best metropolitan area, things are looking up again in Orange County. All of this just two years after experiencing the largest municipal bankruptcy in American history. The bad times now seem long ago, but to stay on top, the county still has a lot of work ahead.

The 1996 Orange County Annual Survey, our UC Irvine poll of 1,000 county households on political, social and economic trends, found a return to optimism in a county that had been beaten down by a long recession and shocking bankruptcy:

* Optimism about the county’s economy soared 25 percentage points in the past year, with 44% of residents now believing the economy is in excellent or good condition.

* As for the county’s quality of life, 82% say things are going well. This is the most positive perception since the late 1980s.

* Residents are overwhelmingly favorable toward the parks, police, streets and public libraries in their communities.

* The ratings of public schools are also improving.

* The county’s Consumer Confidence Index is ahead of the nation and has not been this high since the 1980s. Half expect their finances to improve in 1997.

* Residents are feeling better about owning a home in Orange County as the market shows signs of improvement. Six in 10 homeowners describe owning a home here as an excellent or good investment, which is up 10 points from a year ago.

* Transportation attitudes continue to slowly, but steadily, improve. Satisfaction with the county’s freeways has increased from 5% in 1988 to 26% this year. Seventy-three percent are happy with the way Measure M funds are being spent.

* The bankruptcy has faded from residents’ minds. Named the top problem facing the county last year, mention of the fiscal crisis has now slipped to seventh place.

But on closer examination, we do see traces of the bankruptcy, lingering recession and other countywide issues that deserve our attention.

Confidence in local government, especially county officials, has not yet recovered from the bankruptcy. Only one in four believes the county government does a good job solving local problems; four in 10 still think the county wastes a lot of money; and fewer than one in 10 feels that county leaders pay a lot of attention to residents’ concerns. This level of public distrust, if left unchecked, is sure to make every countywide policy move as contentious as the recent El Toro airport decision.

Income growth has been anemic, with the median household income at $48,000 this year. Underneath the euphoria about the end of bad times, most residents see little improvement in their own incomes, and more than half say they make just enough money to pay their bills. The county needs to encourage high-technology employers that will bring prosperity to more residents, or hopes of improving finances will be short-lived.

A North-South gap threatens to divide the county. This year’s annual survey points up widening discrepancies between the incomes and lifestyles of the South County and the cities to the north of the Costa Mesa Freeway.

Today, South County is the most affluent region, with six in 10 households earning over $50,000.

Meanwhile, residents in the north are considerably more worried about crime. These trends underscore the ongoing surge of middle-class migration from the north to the south, which may accelerate as the toll roads shorten the South County commute. Already, there are signs of resentment and conflict on both sides. A less-than-generous attitude toward charities and the poor could place the county at risk. Residents are feeling less favorable toward giving money to charities for the needy than they were a decade ago. Few have a great deal of confidence in the way local charities are performing.

A final issue to consider is the low rates of voting in this year’s election. The overall voter turnout was well below normal for a presidential election. Much has been said about the higher turnout among Latinos and Asians, however analysis of elections results show that those gains were only modest. According to the annual survey, many Latino and Asian adults are not registered to vote, and very few have voted frequently. Orange County has made a remarkable comeback. To ensure that the good times keep rolling, we need to address the issues that are critical to our future success.

Mark Baldassare is a professor of urban planning at UC Irvine. He and Cheryl Katz, research associate, are the co-directors of the Orange County Annual Survey.

As county economy and optimism rise, other issues need answers.

By MARK BALDASSARE and CHERYL KATZ