Bond Issue for Schools Falling Just Short

Unless voter turnout next week far exceeds predictions, the $2.4-billion Los Angeles Unified School District repair and construction bond measure appears headed toward defeat for a second time, the Times Poll has found.

The poll found that in an expected low turnout, Proposition BB would gain 64% of the vote--short of the two-thirds approval required to pass tax increases. Of those polled, 26% said they would vote against the measure, while 10% remained undecided.

The poll gives Proposition BB a narrow chance of winning because of the margin of sampling error: plus or minus 6 percentage points for likely voters and 3 points for registered voters. The poll contacted 1,103 adults in the city of Los Angeles, including 811 registered voters and 243 likely to vote. It anticipated a low turnout of about 30%

The poll’s projection remained constant even with a moderate turnout. The ballot measure would not crest past a two-thirds majority even if 45% of those registered actually voted. That kind of turnout was not seen even in the heated June 1993 runoff for mayor between Richard Riordan and then-Councilman Michael Woo.

Respondents who identified themselves as likely voters tended to be somewhat older and more conservative than the city’s electorate as a whole, reflecting the typical turnout in a municipal election.

A number of respondents interviewed by a Times reporter expressed distrust of the school system and an aversion to having the bond debt retirement costs added to their property tax bill. The annual cost could peak at about $66 for the average homeowner.

“I don’t think they [school district officials] use their money properly,” said Gladys Rood, 75, of Van Nuys, one of those polled who agreed to be interviewed. “I pay a lot of taxes already and I don’t see results.”

Bond campaign Chairman Richard Katz remained optimistic, saying the campaign’s own polling indicates that the bond still has a good chance of passing. But he acknowledged that it was risky for the district to try again in the smaller April election after losing by just one percentage point in November.

The campaign is counting on winning over the undecided voters with last-minute efforts such as several mass mailings, a planned weekend network television advertising blitz and Saturday precinct-walking.

Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus said those efforts could make a difference.

“It could squeak by,” Pinkus said. “When you’re dealing with initiatives, people make up their minds at the very last minute . . . sometimes based on the last thing they saw.”

Attempting to woo conservative voters, the bond campaign has included Riordan’s photograph on several fliers, seeking to emphasize his support for the bond--an endorsement he withheld in November. Riordan even penned a campaign letter explaining that he had signed on after the district expanded its bond oversight committee to include more experts and a representative from his office.

That approach might not work on someone like Westside resident Susie Alvarez, 34, who doesn’t have children and said she has watched most of her friends who do choose private schools.

“They feel their money is better invested” in private schools, Alvarez said. “I feel the government shouldn’t be asking again.”

Predictably, the poll found Proposition BB’s highest support among those who have the most contact with public schools, including parents, people under the age of 45, those with annual incomes ranging from $20,000 to $40,000, blacks and Latinos, particularly minority women, and those living in the central and southern parts of the city. The district’s enrollment is currently 89% minority.

Bond supporter Todd Lunbeck, a 25-year-old senior airman in the California National Guard who lives in of the West San Fernando Valley community of Winnetka, remembered his own days at Cleveland High as a time of crowded classes and decaying classrooms.

Yet even Lunbeck expressed some lingering doubts about the district’s ability to handle the extra revenue that passage of Proposition BB would generate.

“I’m always for upgrading education and stuff like that,” he said. “But it depends on who’s getting the money and what they’re doing with it.”

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How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,103 adults in the city of Los Angeles, including 811 registered voters and 243 likely voters, by telephone March 22-27. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges citywide. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, area of city and registration. The margin of sampling error for all adults and registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points and for likely voters it is 6; for certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Asian American residents were included in the survey’s sampling design in proportion to their size in the city, but were too small a group to analyze separately. Poll results can also be affected by other factors, such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

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Money for Schools

The Los Angeles Unified School District is making a second run at a $2.4-billion bond measure, with Proposition BB.

OVERALL SUPPORT (among likely voters)

Yes: 64%

No: 26%

Undecided: 10%

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BREAKDOWN BY GROUP (among registered voters)

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Yes No Und. Republican men 62% 26% 12% White liberals 84% 10% 6% Minority women 83% 9% 8% Parents 77% 12% 11% Parents with children in public schools 77% 12% 11% ANNUAL INCOME: $20,000-40,000 80% 15% 5% More than $60,000 70% 20% 10% AGE: 18-29 86% 8% 6% 65+ 66% 28% 6% BY AREA: Westside 73% 20% 7% S.F. Valley 72% 18% 10% Central 75% 17% 8% Southern 77% 14% 9%

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Source: Los Angeles Times poll