High Stakes, Low Voter Turnout Seen

Los Angeles voters--or at least a few of them--will go to the polls today to pick civic and educational leaders, decide the fate of a $2.4-billion bond proposal and determine whether to rewrite the rules for governing the nation’s second-largest city.

Despite the stakes, political experts are predicting a dismal turnout--perhaps even the lowest in municipal history for a mayoral election.

Kristin F. Heffron, head of the city clerk’s Election Division, put her “unofficial” estimate of today’s municipal primary turnout at 30%. That would be lower than the 35% of registered voters who went to the polls four years ago when the mayor’s seat was open for the first time in two decades but better than the record low 24% turnout in 1989, when a scandal-plagued Tom Bradley was seeking an unprecedented fifth term against weak challengers.

The best turnout in recent history came in 1977, when 42% of voters flocked to the polls for what had been expected to be a close race between a vigorous and popular Bradley, seeking his second term, and well-known state Sen. Alan Robbins of the San Fernando Valley.

“It’s not been real great,” Heffron said of her review of mayoral primary turnouts over the past two decades. “I wish I fully understood the dynamics of what brings voters to the polls. Then perhaps we could do something about it.”

Yet Heffron’s gloomy turnout estimate may well be overly optimistic, according to Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus and some local pundits. They think 20% to 24% is more likely, and some even think as few as 15% of registered voters will go to the polls today.

“People are feeling that things have turned around in Los Angeles,” Pinkus said, citing last month’s Times poll. “People aren’t that angry about what’s happening in the city, so they see no reason to turn out to change things.”

That sentiment apparently extends to the city attorney’s race, where the challenger, Ted Stein, although better financed than incumbent James K. Hahn, has had trouble making headway. Polls show voters see little reason not to return Hahn to office, despite Stein’s recent attack on his record in TV commercials.

In the only other citywide race on the ballot, City Controller Rick Tuttle faces only token opposition from two little-known challengers, Virginia Garza and Michael Margolin.

As for the eight City Council seats on the ballot, only one is an open contest: the Westside/San Fernando Valley’s 11th District, where longtime incumbent Marvin Braude is retiring. While there are some signs of an election fight in the 9th and the 15th council districts, the others seem like cakewalks Three council members do not have opponents on the ballot: Mike Feuer of District 5, Richard Alarcon of District 7 and Jackie Goldberg of District 13.

The battle over whether to overhaul the city’s 72-year-old charter--and who among 52 candidates should be given the job--has not made a blip on most voters’ radar screens. A whopping 76% of likely voters had not even heard or read about the measure, the Times Poll found as recently as two weeks ago.

In the city attorney’s race, Stein on Monday closed out his battle to unseat three-term incumbent Hahn by making an appearance with Mayor Richard Riordan on the steps of City Hall.

The mayor reiterated his endorsement of Stein, an Encino lawyer and developer who has served as a mayoral policy advisor and as president of the city’s Airport Commission, referring to him as “my good friend and my partner in government.”

Meanwhile, Hahn, who is ahead in public opinion polls, appeared with law enforcement officials at Monlux Elementary school in North Hollywood to urge voters to approve Proposition BB, a ballot measure that would authorize the sale of $2.4 billion in bonds to repair and update city schools.

The race to replace Braude in the 11th District could end with a June runoff between Braude’s former top aide, Cindy Miscikowski, and Georgia Mercer, who once worked for Riordan. Also running are Van Nuys businessman Mark Isler and Doug Friedman of Brentwood.

Once considered a sure-fire winner, Miscikowski has faced tough competition from Mercer, leading observers to predict a runoff ahead--a possibility both candidates have acknowledged.

In the 9th District, which runs from downtown through South-Central Los Angeles and historically has been heavily African American, candidate Peter Torres hoped to ride the crest of changing demographics to unseat incumbent Rita Walters, who also is challenged by community activist Addie Miller.

In the city’s southernmost district, the 15th, Harbor Area Councilman Rudy Svorinich Jr. was facing a challenge of a different variety: three candidates, one of them a write-in, who were joining forces to at least force him into a runoff election.

The candidates, running under the pro-union banner of the 15th District Coalition, hope to each draw enough votes from different areas of the ethnically diverse district to replace the first-term councilman.

For weeks, university instructor Dennis Korheuer of San Pedro, labor activist Diana Contreras of Wilmington and Muslim minister Majahid Abdul-Karim of Watts have campaigned on a platform emphasizing issues that resonate in the Watts-to-San Pedro district, including more funding for affordable housing, public transportation and after-school programs.

There are three seats on the ballot for the Los Angeles Board of Education. Incumbent candidate Julie Korenstein, who represents District 6 in the San Fernando Valley, is favored to beat out three little-known opponents: school volunteer Jeff Tung, child-rights advocate William Bauman and retired law school administrator Ethel Barnes.

Korenstein, 53, has had the strong backing of United Teachers-Los Angeles in her bid for a fourth term on the school board.

Incumbent Victoria Castro, who has no opposition in her run to represent District 2 in East Los Angeles, will regain her seat.

But it is in the school board’s 4th District where the real race has occurred. The two front-runners, Valerie Fields and Kenneth Sackman, have each received heavy support from unions and hefty donations. And both have waged strong campaigns. The race for District 4, which is being vacated by board member Mark Slavkin, ranges from the Los Angeles International Airport to Porter Ranch in Northridge.

Three seats are on the ballot in the low-profile Los Angeles Community College District, where incumbent Elizabeth Garfield of Office 2 faces Charles Bergson and Andrew Kim and incumbent Althea Baker of Office 6 is challenged by Nancy Pearlman, Eli Green and Stephen C. Brecht. Five candidates--Richard Yanez, Kelly Candaele, Patrick K. Prinster, Marilyn Grunwald and Ross Moen--are competing for the open seat in Office 4.

At stake in Proposition 8--the charter overhaul measure--is nothing less than the future shape of the city’s government. The charter outlines the roles and responsibilities of elected officials and provides a blueprint for the government machinery.

The reform movement has been mired in a power struggle between Riordan, who has led--and largely financed--the fight to put the charter measure on the ballot, and the City Council, which has accused Riordan of using the measure to increase the authority of the mayor.

Riordan’s efforts to put Proposition 8 on the ballot backed the City Council into a corner, forcing the council to create its own reform panel, a 21-member appointed panel that must submit its recommendations to the council before the proposals can go on the ballot.

Times staff writers Greg Krikorian, Hugo Martin, Amy Pyle, Lucille Renwick, Ted Rohrlich and Julie Tamaki contributed to this story.