At 0.29% for ‘96, County’s Population Growth Grinds to a Halt

Even in the face of an improving economy, Ventura County’s population grew by only 0.29% in 1996, the slowest growth rate officials could recall.

In fact, new population figures released Monday by the state Department of Finance were so low that some local officials questioned their reliability. They said that with the county and state’s economy on the rebound, they would expect the increase to be much greater.

“I’m not sure this estimate is going to hold,” said Steve Wood, a demographics specialist with the Ventura County Planning Department. “This is a very low increase countywide. It doesn’t seem to fit with what’s going on. Normally, you’d only expect this to happen if the job market was weak.”

The population of county residents had increased to 714,800 by July 1, 1996, up 2,100 during the previous 12 months.

This is an even lower growth rate than what the county experienced at the height of the recession in 1989 and 1990, Wood said.

“A population increase of 2,100 is less than a fourth of what we would normally expect,” he said. “This is the lowest I’ve ever seen it, and I’ve been here 18 years.” The previous year, Ventura County added 6,500 residents, a 1.89% increase.

According to figures released Monday, the county had recorded 11,938 births and 4,102 deaths during the 12-month period. In addition, 5,736 more residents migrated out of the county than relocated here, resulting in a net increase of 2,100, the state report said.

But the state’s formula for measuring the number of people who moved out of the county between July 1, 1995, and July 1, 1996, may be flawed, Wood said. It’s possible that the Department of Finance could revise the numbers, as it has in the past, he said.

Officials with the Department of Finance could not be reached for comment Monday.

The population estimates are used for county transportation planning as well as long-term air-quality forecasts, Wood said. Next month, he added, the state will release updated population figures for the county’s 10 cities drawn from a broader range of sources.

Meanwhile, California’s population increased by 320,000 residents, or 1%, to 32.38 million people during the period, according to the state’s estimates.

Los Angeles County had the greatest numerical growth, up 44,200 residents to an estimated 9.39 million, but its rate of growth of 0.47% was half the statewide average.

California’s second- and third-most populous counties, San Diego and Orange, grew by 0.96% and 1.34%, respectively. That raised San Diego’s population to an estimated 2,694,900 residents and Orange’s to 2,649,800.

On a percentage basis, remote Lassen County in northeastern California led the state with a 13.96% population increase to 32,650 residents.

But all of Lassen’s growth is attributed to the opening of the new High Desert State Prison in the fall of 1995, which increased the county’s inmate population from 5,748 in 1995 to 10,024 in 1996. Lassen’s nonprison population declined by an estimated 300 residents.

Statewide, more people continued to migrate from California than moved into the state--but by only a small margin--an estimated 16,150. That out-migration was overshadowed by natural population growth, with births exceeding deaths by 336,150 between 1995 and 1996.

The statewide population loss due to migration is down from a high of 82,623 between 1992 and 1993, and demographers with the state Department of Finance predicted that net migration would be positive again by 1998.

Among the state’s fastest-growing counties on a percentage basis are Madera, up 3.67%; San Benito, 3.17%; Placer, 2.80%; and Imperial, 2.77%.

Thirteen of California’s 58 counties lost population, led by Yuba County, down 1,800 residents, or 2.89%, to an estimated 60,500.

The population figures are estimates, based primarily on recorded births and deaths and some migration statistics. The only actual person-by-person counts are conducted in the federal census once per decade.

Since the 1990 census, California’s population has increased by 2.44 million residents, with Los Angeles County leading with 494,400 new residents.

Over that six-year span, 57 of 58 counties increased in population, with Inyo staying even at an estimated 18,250.

The Associated Press contributed to this story.

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Southern California Growth

Here is how Southern California counties stacked up in population estimates released Monday by the state Department of Finance.

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Growth County July 1, 1995 July 1, 1996 Change Rate 1. Los Angeles 9,352,200 9,396,400 44,200 0.47% 2. San Diego 2,669,200 2,694,900 25,700 0.96% 3. Orange 2,614,800 2,649,800 35,000 1.34% 4. San Bernardino 1,581,600 1,592,600 11,000 0.70% 5. Riverside 1,370,300 1,393,300 23,000 1.68% 6. Ventura 712,700 714,800 2,100 0.29% 7. Santa Barbara 391,400 393,700 2,300 0.59% 8. Imperial 137,400 141,200 3,800 2.77%

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