Once Again, NFL Draft More Hype Than Hope

About the time Brad from Las Vegas came on the line and wanted to know if the Cowboys would be able to solve their tight end needs through the draft, I wanted to reach through the phone and pat him on the shoulder and gently tell him, “Get a life.”

Brad and I recently crossed paths near the end of a radio call-in show in which everyone wanted to know something about the draft and didn’t really want to listen to anything I had to say, especially when it came to emphasizing and re-emphasizing how diminished in importance this annual spring ritual has become to NFL teams.

That’s why I wanted Brad to grab hold of himself and take steps to find a cure for his obvious draft sickness. How can you get excited about players whose shelf life with their original teams will last about as long as the latest dance craze? This ain’t about the ‘70s anymore, when great teams such as the Steelers were molded through proper drafting, and fans of bad clubs at least could dream of better things as soon as all those high choices became roster realities. Get a grip. Haven’t you people heard of free agency?

For many teams, the draft has become a royal pain. There is still a need to stock rosters with quality young players, but salary-cap restrictions have cast a new light on this entire exercise, particularly on the first round. That’s why teams with high picks spent the off-season scrambling to bail out and drop lower in the opening round, letting the cash-rich clubs have the chance to select what will become overpriced rookies. Once, when the draft was more meaningful, teams viewed those elite early picks as keys to obtaining immediate roster help. Now, lots of teams would rather say no thanks, we’ve got better ways to spend our money. Just ask the Jets, Falcons and Saints, for example.

The new theory on the draft is that a bunch of picks is better than a few top selections. The resulting price tag is a lot easier to swallow.

So when you scan the TSN analysis of this past weekend’s draft and feel your pride growing because your team received an “A,” be careful before you make plans to buy Super Bowl tickets or invest in any souvenirs bearing the numbers of these latest phenoms.

These guys are going to be way overpriced, which will generate salary-cap problems in future years -- which isn’t good news for your team -- and they likely won’t be in their new home long enough to be able to drive around without help from a road map.

The draft has become a fickle friend. Be careful of getting too attached to Orlando Pace or Shawn Springs, Darrell Russell or Peter Boulware. In the long run, this attachment can only hurt you.

Let’s say your favorite team just drafted a quarterback and the general manager has pronounced him the QB of the future. You like his size and his arm; his upside is thrilling. But here is the downside. Of the 103 quarterbacks drafted from 1989 to 1996, only six are starting for the franchises that picked them and 25 percent remain in the city where they were chosen. Of the 71 selected from 1989 to 1993, only five are on the rosters of their original franchise (Troy Aikman, Brad Johnson, Dave Brown, Drew Bledsoe and Erik Wilhelm, who left the Bengals for one year but came back). So it is best to look upon that new quarterback as someone occupying temporary space on the roster; he soon will be gone, lost in free agency (Elvis Grbac) or traded away in disgrace (Rick Mirer).

Top picks have a better chance of hanging around but not as much as you would think. Since 1990, 64 percent of these choices are still with the team that drafted them. More telling, only six clubs employ their top selection from 1991. The Packers, for example, won the Super Bowl even though only one of their six first-round picks (linebacker Wayne Simmons) from 1990 to ’93 was with the team. And Simmons, a free agent, apparently won’t return. In contrast, the Raiders and Dolphins had a combined 25 first-round choices, including players brought in from other teams, on their rosters last season and still couldn’t manage winning records. Of the first-round picks from 1990 to ’92 who have been eligible for free agency, 27 percent remain with their first franchise.

The draft process has become merely the starting point of the personnel distribution process that now drives the league. It once was the end-all of roster stocking; now it is much lower on the totem pole, reduced to seven rounds and as much of a dice throw as it ever was, despite more sophisticated scouting and testing.

It’s time to change your allegiance. Instead of spending another spring studying draft lists, hanging on the predictions of Mel Kiper Jr. and committing to a weekend in April watching young men become millionaires because of athletic skills that remain unproven at the pro level, pull out a list of free agents and devote your energies to those maneuvers. You’ll find a whole new world of fun and intrigue that is providing new twists and trends every year. Or, are you telling me you predicted Rod Woodson wouldn’t be signed by now?

Trust me, being a free-agency freak is the future of the league. You don’t want to be the Macarena of pro football fans, do you?